ABPW10 PGTW 012200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/012200Z-020600ZDEC2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/011951ZDEC2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 01DEC25 1800Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 33W (KOTO) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 14.3N 111.2E, APPROXIMATELY 196 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG,
VIETNAM, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 012100) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.4N 138.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 138.1E, APPROXIMATELY 172 NM
NORTH OF YAP. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR)
DEPICTS A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (30-31 C), AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93W WILL
CONTINUE WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13
TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.0S
156.1E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM WEST OF BORA BORA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA
INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28 C), AND
GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 99P WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO
18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1).//
NNNN
ABPW10 PGTW 020600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/020600Z-030600ZDEC2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/020151ZDEC2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 02DEC25 0000Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 33W (KOTO) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 14.0N 111.5E, APPROXIMATELY 221 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG,
VIETNAM, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 020300) FOR THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
13.3N 135.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 135.3E, APPROXIMATELY 316 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
(EIR) DEPICTS A POORLY ORGANIZED CIRCULATION WITH SPARSE CONVECTION.
FURTHERMORE, A 012340Z 25KM ASCAT-B IMAGE DEPICTS THE BROAD NATURE OF
93W WITH 15-20 KNOT GRADIENT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SUPPLYING THE SYSTEM WITH GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93W WILL TRACK WESTWARD WITH A SOUTHWESTWARD
TURN OVER THE NEXT 36-72 HOURS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW THAT THE
DISTURBANCE WILL INTENSIFY PRIMARILY DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH THE
NORTHEAST COLD SURGE EVENT NEAR THE PHILIPPINES NEAR TAU 72. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
16.2S 155.3W HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 022201 UTC.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD01F CENTER [1004HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 16.0S
149.3W AT 021800UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 VIS/IR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. TD01F MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT
05 KNOTS.
DEEP CONVECTION LIES TO THE EAST OF SUPPOSED LLCC. TD01F LIES IN A
LOW-MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. SST
AROUND 28 DEGREES CELCIUS.
GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS COOLER SST AND
HIGH WIND SHEAR IN THE NEXT 48HRS WHILST TRANSITIONING INTO A
SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
LOW AND VERY LOW AFTER 48HRS.
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 030857 UTC.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD01F CENTER [1000HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 18.1S
147.0W AT 030600UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 IR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. TD01F SLOW MOVING.
DEEP CONVECTION LIES OVER SUPPOSED LLCC. TD01F LIES IN A LOW-MODERATE
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. SST AROUND 28 DEGREES
CELCIUS.
GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS COOLER SST AND
HIGH WIND SHEAR IN THE NEXT 48HRS WHILST TRANSITIONING INTO A
SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
LOW AND VERY LOW AFTER 48HRS.
ABPW10 PGTW 031400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/031400Z-040600ZDEC2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
14.3N 134.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 133.0E, APPROXIMATELY 416 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION AND
STRONG MID-LEVEL TURNING ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (29-30 C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93W WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE WEST WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION AS IT CROSSES OVER THE
PHILIPPINES AND INTERACTS WITH A STRONG NORTHEAST COLD SURGE EVENT.
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES HAVE 93W MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD, WITH ECENS SHOWING
HIGHER CHANCE OF INTENSIFICATION AS IT TRANSITS INTO THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 19.2S
147.2W, APPROXIMATELY 167 NM SOUTHEAST OF PAPEETE, TAHITI. THIS SYSTEM
IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE, GENERALLY
CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE
FEATURES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS
DEEP CONSISTENT CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF AN
EXPOSED AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. FURTHERMORE, A
030943Z GMI 89GHZ IMAGE REVEALS THE ASYMMETRIC NATURE OF THE WIND
FIELD OF 99P. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REVEAL UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR TRANSITIONING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, COOL (25C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A
SHARP TROUGH IN THE UPPER LEVELS ABOVE THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 99P WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSIT
SOUTHEASTWARD WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. FOR HAZARDS
AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS
AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AS A LOW IN
PARA. 2.C.(1).//
NNNN
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 032301 UTC.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD01F CENTER [1000HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 19.5S
146.9W AT 032100UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 IR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. TD01F SLOW MOVING.
LLCC IS NOW FULLY EXPOSED WITH DEEP CONVECTION TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST.
TD01F LIES IN A HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE UPPER
DIVERGENCE. SST AROUND 26 DEGREES CELSIUS.
GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS COOLER SST IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILST TRANSITIONING INTO A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
VERY LOW.
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 040843 UTC.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 01F CENTRE [999HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 21.4S
145.2W AT 040600UTC. POSITION BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 IR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 15 KNOTS.
DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LLCC. SLANTING NW-SE
UPPER TROUGH IS GRADUALLY INTERACTING WITH THE DISTURBANCE. TD01F
LIES IN A HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE.
SST AROUND 26 DEGREES CELSIUS.
GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS COOLER SST
WITHIN NEXT 24 HOURS WHILST TRANSITIONING INTO A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM.
AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES COLD CORED AND MOVE SOUTHEASTWARDS, IT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO HAVE DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
VERY LOW.
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 042309 UTC.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 01F CENTRE [999HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 23.4S
143.2W AT 042100UTC. POSITION BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 VIS/IR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SLOW MOVING.
DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH OF LLCC. SLANTING NW-SE UPPER
TROUGH IS GRADUALLY INTERACTING WITH THE DISTURBANCE. TD01F LIES IN A
HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE. SST AROUND
24 DEGREES CELSIUS.
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUES TO MOVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS
COOLER SST AS A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
VERY LOW.
THIS IS THE LAST TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY FOR THIS SYSTEM UNLESS
SITUATION CHANGES.
发表于 2025-12-2 06:39
