法属波利尼西亚西北06P

大水台6

90P INVEST 251204 0000 11.9S 156.0W SHEM 15 0

pocketbox

ABPW10 PGTW 041430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/041430Z-050600ZDEC2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.2N 130.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 129.0E, APPROXIMATELY 323 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LEGAZPI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS A POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH WEAK CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (15 KNOTS OR LESS), GOOD UPPER-LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT,
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28 C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93W WILL SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS
TOWARD THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.2S
157.9W, APPROXIMATELY 478 NM NORTHWEST OF BORA BORA. ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A SMALL, YET DEFINED, LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH
OF THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(15-20 KNOTS), GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (27-28 C). GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 90P TRANSITING
SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A COMPACT WIND FIELD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GFS
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL, DEPICTING QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF GALE-
FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
21.4S 145.6W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.8S 144.8W, APPROXIMATELY 364 NM
SOUTHEAST OF PAPEETE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
(EIR) DEPICT A HIGHLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH DEEP CONVECTION HEAVILY SHEARED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25 KNOTS OR GREATER), STRONG POLEWARD
AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (25-26 C).
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99P WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSIT POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 43 TO 48 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1)
NNNN

---

ABPW10 PGTW 041430 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS CORRECTED/041430Z-050600ZDEC2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.2N 130.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 129.0E, APPROXIMATELY 323 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LEGAZPI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS A POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH WEAK CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (15 KNOTS OR LESS), GOOD UPPER-LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT,
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28 C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93W WILL SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS
TOWARD THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.2S
157.9W, APPROXIMATELY 478 NM NORTHWEST OF BORA BORA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A SMALL, YET
DEFINED, LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION
TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28 C). GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 90P TRANSITING
SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A COMPACT WIND FIELD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GFS
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL, DEPICTING QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF GALE-
FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
21.4S 145.6W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.8S 144.8W, APPROXIMATELY 364 NM
SOUTHEAST OF PAPEETE. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL
AND MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICT A HIGHLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION HEAVILY SHEARED OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25 KNOTS OR GREATER),
STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND COOL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (25-26 C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 99P WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSIT POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFRENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO
HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST
AUTHORITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 43 TO 48
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED SUBTROPICAL STORM VERBAGE
TO INVEST 99P IN PARA 2.C.(1).//
NNNN

Ragasa

ABPW10 PGTW 041800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/041800Z-050600ZDEC2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.2N 130.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 129.0E, APPROXIMATELY 323 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LEGAZPI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS A POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH WEAK CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (15 KNOTS OR LESS), GOOD UPPER-LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT,
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28 C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93W WILL SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS
TOWARD THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
11.2S 157.9W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5 152.8W, APPROXIMATELY 241 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BORA BORA. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
A COMPACT AND MOSTLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC),
WHICH HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. CONVECTION IS
FLARING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, DEVELOPING INTO NASCENT BANDING
FEATURES AND WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 041156Z NOAA-20 ATMS 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTED A SMALL REGION OF CENTRAL CONVECTION AND
SHALLOW BANDING FEATURE TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH, BEGINNING TO WRAP
INTO TOWARDS THE DEVELOPING LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ANALYSIS WITH MODERATE UPPER LEVEL POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 10-15 KTS, AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF 28 TO 29 C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 90P
WILL TRACK RAPIDLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE WAKE OF 99P OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WHILE QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING AND INTENSIFYING.
ANALYSIS SHOWS 90P TO BE TROPICAL IN NATURE, AND IT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SO FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MODELS AGREE THAT 90P
WILL QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT
TRACKS NORTH OF TAHITI. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
21.4S 145.6W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.8S 144.8W, APPROXIMATELY 364 NM
SOUTHEAST OF PAPEETE. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL
AND MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICT A HIGHLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION HEAVILY SHEARED OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25 KNOTS OR GREATER),
STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND COOL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (25-26 C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 99P WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSIT POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFRENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO
HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST
AUTHORITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 43 TO 48
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM.//
NNNN

ygsj24

WTPS21 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.6S 151.7W TO 19.6S 144.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 041800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.8S 151.4W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.5S 152.8W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.8S 151.4W, APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
NORTH OF BORA BORA. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A COMPACT
AND MOSTLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH HAS
RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. CONVECTION IS FLARING OVER
THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, DEVELOPING INTO NASCENT BANDING FEATURES AND
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 041156Z NOAA-20 ATMS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTED A SMALL REGION OF CENTRAL CONVECTION AND A SHALLOW BANDING
FEATURE TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH, BEGINNING TO WRAP INWARD TOWARDS THE
DEVELOPING LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR ANALYSIS WITH MODERATE UPPER LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OF 10-15 KTS, AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28 TO 29 C.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 90P WILL TRACK RAPIDLY SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE WAKE OF 99P OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE
QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING AND INTENSIFYING. ANALYSIS SHOWS 90P TO BE
TROPICAL IN NATURE AND IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
48 HOURS. MODELS AGREE THAT 90P WILL QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT TRACKS NORTH OF TAHITI.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS HIGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
052100Z.//
NNNN

---

ABPW10 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/042100Z-050600ZDEC2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/042051ZDEC2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.2N 130.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 129.0E, APPROXIMATELY 323 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LEGAZPI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS A POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH WEAK CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (15 KNOTS OR LESS), GOOD UPPER-LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT,
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28 C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93W WILL SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS
TOWARD THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.5S 152.8W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.8S 151.4W, APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
NORTH OF BORA BORA. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A COMPACT
AND MOSTLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH HAS
RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. CONVECTION IS FLARING
OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, DEVELOPING INTO NASCENT BANDING FEATURES
AND WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 041156Z NOAA-20 ATMS 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICTED A SMALL REGION OF CENTRAL CONVECTION AND A SHALLOW
BANDING FEATURE TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH, BEGINNING TO WRAP INWARD
TOWARDS THE DEVELOPING LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR ANALYSIS WITH MODERATE UPPER LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 10-15 KTS, AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF
28 TO 29 C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 90P WILL TRACK RAPIDLY
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE WAKE OF 99P OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WHILE QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING AND INTENSIFYING. ANALYSIS SHOWS 90P TO BE
TROPICAL IN NATURE AND IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. MODELS AGREE THAT 90P WILL QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE AND
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT TRACKS NORTH OF TAHITI.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF
A (WTPS21 PGTW 042100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
21.4S 145.6W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.8S 144.8W, APPROXIMATELY 364 NM
SOUTHEAST OF PAPEETE. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL
AND MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICT A HIGHLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION HEAVILY SHEARED OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25 KNOTS OR GREATER),
STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND COOL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (25-26 C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 99P WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSIT POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFRENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO
HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST
AUTHORITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 43 TO 48
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO
HIGH.//
NNNN

ygsj24

WTPS31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (SIX) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/042051ZDEC2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (SIX) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   050000Z --- NEAR 13.9S 149.7W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S 149.7W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z --- 16.2S 146.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 19.2S 144.6W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 22 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 23.0S 142.1W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 149.0W.
05DEC25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 216 NM
NORTH OF PAPEETE, TAHITI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 050000Z IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
051500Z AND 060300Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 042100)
NNNN

1. WDPS31 PGTW 050300
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (SIX) WARNING NR
   
4. 001//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 13.9S 149.7W
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 216 NM NORTH OF PAPEETE, TAHITI
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (SIX) HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED AND
    
18. INTENSIFIED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTH
    
19. PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE (SPCZ) WHICH EXTENDS SOUTH TO NEAR
    
20. SUBTROPICAL STORM (SS) 99P. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
    
21. IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN EXTREMELY COMPACT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
    
22. CENTER (LLCC), OBSCURED BY DEEP, PERSISTENT CONVECTION. A 042032Z
    
23. GMI 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALED A WELL-DEFINED LLCC, WITH A TINY
    
24. LOW EMISSIVITY REGION (LER) OUTLINING THE COMPACT INNER-CORE, AND A
    
25. STRONG BAND OF CONVECTION EXTENDING IN A BROAD ARC FORMING INTO A
    
26. SHRIMP-LIKE SHAPE TYPICAL OF DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONES. A
    
27. 041921Z ASCAT-B BULLSEYE REVEALED A VERY SMALL CORE OF ENHANCED
    
28. WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS, ALTHOUGH THE EXTREMELY COMPACT STRUCTURE
    
29. LIKELY PRECLUDED DETECTION OF POTENTIALLY HIGHER WINDS WITHIN THE
    
30. INNER-CORE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
    
31. BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATION OF THE GMI IMAGE DISCUSSED ABOVE, AND
    
32. NEAR THE PGTW FIX POSITION BASED ON THE MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
    
33. IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE BROAD DISAGREEMENT
    
34. BETWEEN THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES, AND
    
35. EXTRAPOLATION OF THE EARLIER ASCAT DATA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
    
36. ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE, WITH LOW WIND SHEAR, STRONG POLEWARD
    
37. OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM SSTS. OUTFLOW IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE
    
38. PRESENCE OF A VERY DEEP 200MB TROF SITUATED TO THE WEST.
    
39. 
    
40. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE WITH EARLIER SCATTEROMETER
    
41. DATA.
    
42. 
    
43. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO
    
44. MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST.
    
45. 
    
46. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
47.    PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
    
48.    KNES: T1.0 - 25 KTS
    
49.    PHFO: T1.0 - 25 KTS
    
50. 
    
51. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
    
52.    VWS: 10-15 KTS
    
53.    SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
    
54.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
    
55.    OTHER FACTORS: SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED ALONG THE SOUTH PACIFIC
    
56. CONVERGENCE ZONE (SPCZ). DRY MID-LEVEL AIR TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.
    
57. 
    
58. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
59.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
    
60.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
61.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
62. 
    
63. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
64. 
    
65. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
    
66. MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
    
67. 
    
68. FORECAST DISCUSSION: JUST AS IT FORMED VERY RAPIDLY, TC 06P WILL BE
    
69. AN EQUALLY SHORT-LIVED TC. THE SYSTEM WILL RACE OFF TO THE
    
70. SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD, ALONG THE A STRONG
    
71. STEERING GRADIENT BETWEEN THE WESTERN FLANK OF A DEEP STR TO THE
    
72. EAST AND THE DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROF LURKING OUT TO THE WEST.
    
73. GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
    
74. 24 HOURS, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY UP TO 40
    
75. KNOTS, POTENTIALLY A FEW KNOTS HIGHER BY TAU 24. BY THAT POINT
    
76. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UNDER A 300MB JET STREAK, BE ENGULFED
    
77. BY VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR AND MOVE OVER MUCH COOLER SSTS (24-25C)
    
78. AND BEGIN A VERY RAPID SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION (STT). STT IS
    
79. EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETE NO LATER THAN TAU 36, AS THE SYSTEM RACES
    
80. POLEWARD IN THE WAKE OF 99P.
    
81. 
    
82. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
    
83. VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT, WITH MINIMAL CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AND MARGINAL
    
84. ALONG-TRACK SPREAD. THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE
    
85. GFS DETERMINISTIC TRACKER WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE
    
86. IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING A PEAK INTENSITY
    
87. BETWEEN 40-45 KNOTS BY TAU 12, FOLLOWED BY A SLOW WEAKENING
    
88. BEGINNING AT TAU 24. THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE CONSENSUS
    
89. MEAN WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
    
90. 
    
91. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
92.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
    
93.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
    
94. NNNN

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Meow

FMS的关注

LOW PRESSURE L3 CENTRE [1012HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 12.0S 151.2W AT 041800UTC. POSITION POOR. SLOW MOVING.

Ragasa

JWTC标错位置标到149.7E去了

(1) AT 05DEC25 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (SIX) WAS LOCATED NEAR
13.9S 149.7W, APPROXIMATELY 216 NM NORTH OF PAPEETE, TAHITI, AND HAD
TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS.
SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 050300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

Ragasa

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 050939 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 02F CENTRE [1000HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 15.3S
148.3W AT 050900UTC. POSITION POOR. TD02F MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT
15 KNOTS.

CURRENTLY THE DISTURBANCE LIES UNDER STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE, LOW
SHEAR WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SST AROUND 28 DEGREES CELSIUS.
TD02F IS IN A VERY FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT AND HAS POTENTIAL TO BECOME
A SIGNIFICANT DEPRESSION IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
PERSIST AS IT MOVES INTO COOLER SST AND HIGH SHEAR THEREAFTER.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARDS
WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, BUT WEAKENS IT AFTER
24 HOURS.

THUS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

*********************************************************************
************

NO OTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE AREA.

pocketbox

WTPS31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (SIX) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (SIX) WARNING NR 002   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   051200Z --- NEAR 16.0S 148.0W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 148.0W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 18.7S 146.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 21.8S 144.4W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 147.5W.
05DEC25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 129 NM
NORTHEAST OF PAPEETE, TAHITI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 051200Z IS
999 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNING AT 060300Z.//
NNNN

1. WDPS31 PGTW 051500
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (SIX) WARNING NR
   
4. 002//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 16.0S 148.0W
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 129 NM NORTHEAST OF PAPEETE, TAHITI
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
18. CYCLONE 06P WITH A HIGHLY COMPACT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
    
19. (LLCC) AND DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE CENTER. ANIMATED WATER
    
20. VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS DEFINED CIRRUS FILAMENTS EXTENDING OUTWARD IN
    
21. THE POLEWARD DIRECTION INTO THE UPPER-LEVEL JET TO THE SOUTH. THE
    
22. INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
    
23. ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS ASSESSED
    
24. WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK AND CIMSS
    
25. OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
    
26. INDICATES THAT 06P IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
    
27. CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KTS)
    
28. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DRY AIR TO THE SOUTHWEST, AND WARM (27-28 C)
    
29. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
    
30. 
    
31. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
    
32. 
    
33. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
    
34. RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE EAST
    
35. 
    
36. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
37.    PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
    
38.    KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
39.    PHFO: T2.0 - 30 KTS
    
40.    CIMSS ADT: 39 KTS AT 051210Z
    
41.    CIMSS AIDT: 35 KTS AT 051210Z
    
42.    CIMSS D-MINT: 31 KTS AT 051049Z
    
43.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 35 KTS AT 051210Z
    
44. 
    
45. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
    
46.    VWS: 10-15 KTS
    
47.    SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
    
48.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
    
49.    OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR TO THE SOUTHWEST
    
50. 
    
51. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
52.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
    
53.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
54.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
55. 
    
56. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
57. 
    
58. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
59. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
60. 
    
61. FORECAST DISCUSSION: 06P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD,
    
62. ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST
    
63. THROUGHOUT THE SHORT FORECAST PERIOD. TRACK SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
    
64. INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE UPPER-LEVEL JET
    
65. STREAK TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN AN
    
66. INTENSITY OF AROUND 40 KTS THROUGH TAU 24 AS EXTREME POLEWARD
    
67. OUTFLOW FIGHTS AGAINST INCREASING SHEAR AND COOLING SEA SURFACE
    
68. TEMPERATURES. AROUND TAU 24, 06P IS FORECAST TO BE WITHIN AN AREA
    
69. OF 30 KTS OR HIGHER WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE
    
70. TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN 26 C. ADDITIONALLY, SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
    
71. DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST WILL SHALLOW OUT THE VORTEX. AS A
    
72. RESULT, THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO COMPLETE SUBTROPICAL
    
73. TRANSITION NEAR TAU 24 AS IT RACES OFF TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.
    
74. 
    
75. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
    
76. AGREEMENT WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 65 NM AND MINIMAL
    
77. ALONG-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 24. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED
    
78. CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE
    
79. GENERALLY AGREES ON A STEADY INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 24. GFS SHOWS
    
80. SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO AROUND 45 KTS THROUGH TAU 12 WHILE THE
    
81. REMAINDER OF GUIDANCE HOVERS AROUND 40 KTS. THE JTWC INTENSITY
    
82. FORECAST IS ALSO PLACED CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS WITH HIGH
    
83. CONFIDENCE.
    
84. 
    
85. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
86.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
    
87.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
    
88. NNNN

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