Tropical Low 08U
Tropical low (08U) forming well off the northwest Kimberley coast with moderate tropical cyclone risk from Monday next week.
A tropical low (08U) is forming within the monsoon trough located well off the northwest Kimberley coast.
The system should move slowly south initially and then take a southeast or east track from Monday towards the west Kimberley coast.
Environmental conditions are moderately favourable for development but latest guidance varies greatly. Most do not indicate significant development but sufficient do intensify the system. Weakening is more likely from Wednesday as dry air and increasing wind shear affect the system even before the system reaches the coast.
The tropical cyclone ratings increase to Low from Saturday and then Moderate Monday and remain so through to Wednesday.
Residents near the Kimberley coast and east Pilbara coasts should monitor forecast updates over the coming days.
ABIO10 PGTW 261800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/261800Z-271800ZDEC2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/261351ZDEC2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 26DEC25 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 11.9S 91.4E, APPROXIMATELY 323 NM WEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, AND
HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS GUSTING TO 70 KNOTS.
SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 261500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.2S
118.6E, APPROXIMATELY 223 NM NORTH OF ROWLEY SHOALS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING WITHIN THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY AND MINOR FLARING CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15
KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 C). GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW 96S CONTINUING TO CONSOLIDATE WITH A HIGHLY COMPACT WIND FIELD.
GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL, SHOWING QUICK DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON 96S TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
Tropical Low 08U
A weak tropical low (08U) is forming well off the northwest Kimberley coast, with a moderate tropical cyclone risk on Tuesday.
A weak tropical low (08U) is forming within the monsoon trough, located well off the northwest Kimberley coast.
The low is forecast to move slowly south initially, and then take a southeast or east track from Monday towards the west Kimberley coast.
It is most likely that the low will not significantly develop, however there is a marginally favourable window during the next few days where development may occur.
The chance of the low developing into a tropical cyclone is Low from Monday, then Moderate on Tuesday, before the environment becomes unfavourable and there is a Low chance of development on Wednesday.
Residents near the Kimberley coast and east Pilbara coasts should monitor forecast updates over the coming days.
发表于 2025-12-25 01:43
