迪戈加西亚东南中等热带风暴第6号“杜扎伊”(14S.Dudzai)

大水台6

sh932026 INVEST 20260107 0000 -11.1 72.2 S DB 15 0

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ABIO10 PGTW 090030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/090030Z-091800ZJAN2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081951ZJAN2026//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080951ZJAN2026//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT.
RMKS/
1. :
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
...
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. :
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 08JAN26 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (JENNA) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 17.8S 88.6E, APPROXIMATELY 587 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS,
AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 082100) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.0S
71.7E, APPROXIMATELY 220 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED AND BROAD CIRCULATION
EMBEDDED WITHIN A TROUGH SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (10-15KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C), AND GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON
STEADY DEVELOPMENT WITH GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SHOWING THE
SYSTEM REACHING UP TO 35 KTS WITHIN AS EARLY AS 48 HOURS. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE BETWEEN ECMWF AND GFS ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON STEADY
INTENSIFICATION AS 93S TRANSITS SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1).//
NNNN

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ABIO10 PGTW 100600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/100600Z-101800ZJAN2026//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
...
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.0S 76.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.7S 76.2E, APPROXIMATELY 390 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 100031Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO
20 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29 C). GLOBAL
MODELS AGREE ON 93S TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHEAST AS IT CONTINUES TO
CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM.//
NNNN

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WTIO30 FMEE 100659
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/6/20252026
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 6

2.A POSITION 2026/01/10 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.5 S / 76.4 E
(TWELVE    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/D 0.5/18 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1005 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 93 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/10 18 UTC: 13.9 S / 77.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 220 NW: 95

24H: 2026/01/11 06 UTC: 15.3 S / 78.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SW: 220 NW: 100

36H: 2026/01/11 18 UTC: 16.5 S / 78.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SW: 220 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 75

48H: 2026/01/12 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 78.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 230 SW: 220 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 75

60H: 2026/01/12 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

72H: 2026/01/13 06 UTC: 18.1 S / 77.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/14 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 325 SW: 220 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 95

120H: 2026/01/15 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 72.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 370 SW: 220 NW: 185

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=1.5 CI=1.5

OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, CONVECTION NEAR SYSTEM 06-20252026 HAS
STRENGTHENED AND IS BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE. ITS CLOUD CONFIGURATION IS
CURRENTLY WIND-SHEARED, AND THE CENTER IS LOCATED AT THE NORTHEAST
EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. THE KUSCAT PASSES AT 1925Z AND ASCAT PASSES
AT 0344Z, AS WELL AS THE GCOM MICROWAVE IMAGE AT 2027Z, HAVE ALLOWED
US TO TRACK THE CENTER. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE BY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ANALYSIS GIVES A T 1.5 WITH AN AVERAGE MAX WIND OF 25KT. THIS APPEARS
CONSISTENT WITH THE DIFFUSOMETER MEASUREMENTS. THIS VALUE IS
THEREFORE USED AND THE SYSTEM IS CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE.

REGARDING THE TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS INITIALLY STEERED BY THE MONSOON
FLOW AND THE REMAINS OF THE RESIDUAL DEPRESSION JENNA, WHICH ARE
DRIVING IT SOUTHEASTWARD UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING. ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
WHEN IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH ITS MAXIMUM INTENSITY, IT WILL BE CAUGHT
IN CONTRADICTORY FLOWS AT HIGHER ALTITUDES AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOW
DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY BEFORE BEGINNING A TURN TOWARDS THE WEST, STEERED
BY THE LOW-LEVEL BACKBONE.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CONSTRAINED BY A DEEP
EASTERLY WIND-SHEAR THAT IS SLOWING ITS CYCLOGENESIS. THE SHEAR
SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE IN THE COMING HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
OVER WARM WATERS AT 28-29AOC. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE THEREFORE
FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION AND PROBABLE CYCLOGENESIS ON SUNDAY.
THE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND REACH THE
STAGE OF A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM ON TUESDAY AS THE DEEP SHEAR
CONTINUES TO DECREASE. ON WEDNESDAY, THE SHEAR WILL INCREASE AGAIN
AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.

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WTIO30 FMEE 101247
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/6/20252026
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6

2.A POSITION 2026/01/10 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.6 S / 76.1 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 83 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 185 NW: 140

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/11 00 UTC: 14.6 S / 76.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 205 NW: 95

24H: 2026/01/11 12 UTC: 15.9 S / 77.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 205 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 120 NW: 95

36H: 2026/01/12 00 UTC: 16.9 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 205 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 120 NW: 100

48H: 2026/01/12 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SW: 205 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 120 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2026/01/13 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 77.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 205 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

72H: 2026/01/13 12 UTC: 18.3 S / 77.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 215 SW: 205 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/14 12 UTC: 18.3 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SW: 205 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 120

120H: 2026/01/15 12 UTC: 18.0 S / 72.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 260 SW: 205 NW: 140

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.0+ CI=2.0+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AND
IS APPROACHING A CURVED BAND PATTERN. THE GCOM MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM
08:37Z ALSO CONFIRMS A CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
CONVECTION THAT REMAINED STRONG IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE
INTENSITY ESTIMATE BY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS GIVES A T OF 2.0+ AND
MAXIMUM WINDS INCREASED TO 30KT WITH THE KUSCAT SWATH AT 06:19Z. THE
KUSCAT SWATH AND THE GCOM MICROWAVE IMAGE HAVE ALLOWED US TO TRACK
THE CENTER, WHICH REMAINS ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE
CONVECTION. ALL OF THESE ELEMENTS ALLOW US TO CLASSIFY THE SYSTEM AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30KT.

REGARDING THE TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS INITIALLY STEERED BY THE MONSOON
FLOW AND THE REMAINS OF THE RESIDUAL DEPRESSION JENNA, WHICH ARE
DRIVING IT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING. ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, WHEN IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH ITS MAXIMUM INTENSITY, IT WILL BE
CAUGHT IN CONTRADICTORY FLOWS AT HIGHER ALTITUDES AND IS EXPECTED TO
SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY BEFORE BEGINNING A TURN TOWARDS THE WEST,
STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL BACKBONE.

REGARDING INTENSITY, THE DEEP EASTERLY WIND SHEAR HAS DIMINISHED OVER
THE LAST FEW HOURS AND THE CIRRUS CLOUDS SPREAD IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT INDICATE AN IMPROVEMENT OF POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THESE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER WARM WATERS AT 28-29°C.
ALL OF THESE FACTORS POINT TO AN INTENSIFICATION TO A MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND TO A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM OVER THE
NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. HOWEVER, INTENSITY UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AND THE
LATEST RUNS OF IFS AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE MODELS SUGGEST A FASTER
INTENSIFICATION, POSSIBLY REACHING TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS ON MONDAY
OR TUESDAY. BEYOND 72 HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER
INCREASED WESTERLY WIND SHEAR AND BEGIN A WEAKENING PHASE.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.

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WTXS21 PGTW 101330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.0S 76.1E TO 16.3S 77.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 101300Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.2S 76.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.0S 76.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2S 76.1E, APPROXIMATELY 408 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS AN
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH VIGOROUS BURSTS OF
DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE
POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KTS),
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29 C). MODELS AGREE ON 93S
TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
111330Z.//
NNNN

ygsj24

ygsj24

WTXS31 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   101800Z --- NEAR 13.9S 76.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S 76.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z --- 15.2S 76.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z --- 16.3S 77.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z --- 17.0S 77.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z --- 17.4S 77.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z --- 17.9S 76.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z --- 17.7S 75.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z --- 17.3S 73.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 76.1E.
10JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
457 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 101800Z IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
110900Z AND 112100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (JENNA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 102100
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOURTEEN) WARNING
   
4. NR 001//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 13.9S 76.0E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 457 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWARD AT 05 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
    
18. COMPACT AND SYMMETRICAL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) OBSCURING THE
    
19. LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
    
20. WITH THE CDO CONTINUES TO PULSE, CREATING STRONG GRAVITY WAVES
    
21. WHICH CAN BE SEEN EMANATING OUTWARDS IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
    
22. IMAGERY. CIMSS ATMOSPHERIC MOTION VECTORS (AMV) SUGGEST THE
    
23. UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES ARE SPLITTING UPSTREAM OF THE CDO, REDUCING
    
24. LOCALIZED SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF THE LLCC. THE A 101539Z ASCAT-B
    
25. BULLSEYE PASS REVEALED THE LLCC POSITIONED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF
    
26. THE CDO, WITH WINDS UP TO 40-45 KNOTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT.
    
27. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN
    
28. EXTRAPOLATION OF THE LLCC SEEN IN THE SCATTEROMETER PASS. THE
    
29. INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, BIASED HIGHER
    
30. THAN THE PGTW AND FMEE T2.5 DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
    
31. BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
    
32. INTENSIFICATION, CHARACTERIZED BY WARM SSTS, LOW VWS AND
    
33. STRENGTHENING POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT.
    
34. 
    
35. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA
    
36. 
    
37. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
    
38. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) COMPLEX POSITIONED TO THE EAST.
    
39. 
    
40. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
41.    PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
    
42.    FMEE: T2.5 - 35 KTS
    
43.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 34 KTS AT 102000Z
    
44. 
    
45. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
    
46.    VWS: 5-10 KTS
    
47.    SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
    
48.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
    
49. 
    
50. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
51.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
52.    INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
    
53.    INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
    
54. 
    
55. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
56. 
    
57. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
    
58. MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
    
59. 
    
60. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FOURTEEN) IS
    
61. FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF A
    
62. STR COMPLEX SITUATED TO THE EAST. BY TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW
    
63. DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AND BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD, IN RESPONSE TO
    
64. THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EXTENSION OF A RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
    
65. SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL EXPERIENCE ADDITIONAL SLOWING
    
66. AS THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH RAPIDLY ERODES AND THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
    
67. A COMPETING STEERING PATTERN, WITH RIDGING TO THE EAST AND WEST AND
    
68. A TROF TO THE SOUTH. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY
    
69. THROUGH TAU 48, UP TO A PEAK OF 70 KNOTS, UNDER FAVORABLE
    
70. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF LOW DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, WARM SSTS AND
    
71. GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. WHILE ASSESSED AS A LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS
    
72. TIME, THE EXCEPTIONALLY SMALL NATURE OF THE INNER-CORE SUPPORTS
    
73. RAPID CHANGES IN INTENSITY AND RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) IS
    
74. POSSIBLE IN THE NEAR-TERM, ESPECIALLY IF THE VORTEX CAN RAPIDLY
    
75. ALIGN VERTICALLY. AFTER PEAKING IN INTENSITY AROUND TAU 48,
    
76. DEEP-LAYER NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM,
    
77. LEADING TO A SLOW BUT STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
    
78. FORECAST. AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND THE VORTEX SHALLOWS OUT, IT
    
79. WILL TURN ONTO A WESTWARD TRACK, ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK OF AN
    
80. EXTENSIVE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.
    
81. 
    
82. MODEL DISCUSSION: THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HOURS OF THE FORECAST,
    
83. DETERMINISTIC, ENSEMBLE AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE (AI) MODELS ARE
    
84. IN OVERALL AGREEMENT ON THE SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK MOTION, BUT EXHIBIT
    
85. A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF APPROXIMATELY 135NM. THE AI MODELS (AICN,
    
86. FGNE, AIFS) DEPICT A STRAIGHT TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST,
    
87. WHILE THE DETERMINISTIC AIDS OUTLINE A GENTLY CURVING TRACK MORE
    
88. TOWARDS THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST. AFTER TAU 48, THE MODELS BEGIN TO
    
89. DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE GALWEM PERFORMS A CLOCKWISE LOOP TO
    
90. NORTH, THE AI MODELS TRACK NORTHWESTWARD, THE GFS TRACK WESTWARD AT
    
91. A PACE THAT FAR OUTPACES THE OTHER GUIDANCE, WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS
    
92. UP THE REAR, VERY SLOWLY DRIFTING WESTWARD AFTER TAU 72. THE
    
93. RESULTING CROSS-TRACK SPREAD EXCEEDS 400NM, WHILE THE ALONG-TRACK
    
94. UNCERTAINTY EXCEEDS 250NM. ENSEMBLE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER
    
95. AGREEMENT, WITH BOTH THE GEFS AND ECEPS DEPICTING A RELATIVELY
    
96. NARROW ENVELOPE, THOUGH THE GEFS IS SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE
    
97. ECEPS. THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
    
98. CONSENSUS MEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH MEDIUM TO LOW
    
99. CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM
    
100. WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 60-80 KNOTS BETWEEN TAU 48 AND
     
101. TAU 60 FOLLOWED BY SLOW WEAKENING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE RIDE RI
     
102. AID IS TRIPPED, WHICH SUPPORTS A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS BY TAU
     
103. 48. THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE HAFS-A TRACE WITH MEDIUM
     
104. CONFIDENCE.
     
105. 
     
106. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
     
107.    TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
     
108.    TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
     
109.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
     
110.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
     
111. NNNN

复制代码

pocketbox

WTIO30 FMEE 110139
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/6/20252026
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/11 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.5 S / 76.6 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 75 NW: 65

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/11 12 UTC: 15.8 S / 77.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 165 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 100 NW: 85

24H: 2026/01/12 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 77.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2026/01/12 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2026/01/13 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 77.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

60H: 2026/01/13 12 UTC: 18.0 S / 77.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 175 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

72H: 2026/01/14 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SW: 185 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/15 00 UTC: 17.9 S / 75.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 280 SW: 185 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55

120H: 2026/01/16 00 UTC: 17.3 S / 72.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 315 SW: 195 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 155 SW: 120 NW: 120

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5+ CI=2.5+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED WITH
INCREASED CURVATURE. THE CLOUD CONFIGURATION IS GRADUALLY EVOLVING
TOWARDS A CURVED BAND CONFIGURATION, AS SHOWN IN THE F18 MICROWAVE
IMAGE FROM 2330Z. THIS NOW REVEALS AN EYE AROUND THE CENTER. THE
DVORAK T NUMBER HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY INCREASED TO 2.5+ COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS NETWORK. IN LIGHT OF THESE FACTORS AND THE PREVIOUS ASCAT AND
KUSCCAT DIFFUSIOMETRIC PASSES, THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN CLASSIFIED AS A
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 35KT AND HAS BEEN
NAMED DUDZAI BY THE MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

REGARDING THE TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS INITIALLY STEERED BY THE MONSOON
FLOW AND THE REMAINS OF THE RESIDUAL DEPRESSION JENNA, WHICH ARE
DRIVING IT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING. IN THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK, WHEN IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH ITS MAXIMUM INTENSITY, IT
WILL BE CAUGHT IN CONTRADICTORY FLOWS AT HIGHER ALTITUDES AND IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY BEFORE BEGINNING A TURN TOWARDS
THE WEST, STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, DUDZAI BENEFITS FROMFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS (LOW VERTICAL SHEAR, WARM WATERS AT 28-29°C, STRONG ALTITUDE
DIVERGENCE WITH A POLAR EVACUATION CHANNEL) WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. DUDZAI COULD THEREFORE REACH TROPICAL
CYCLONE STATUS BY TUESDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT DUDZAI COULD RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY AND REACH THIS STAGE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BEYOND 72
HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER INCREASED WESTERLY SHEAR
AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN. THE CMRS FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCES, WHICH ARE STILL VERY DISPERSED
OVER THE LIFE OF THE SYSTEM.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：董议文、刘涛  签发：向纯怡  2026 年 01 月 11 日 10 时
“科吉”已于今日凌晨在澳大利亚登陆

时  间: 11日08时（北京时，下同）

海  域: 澳大利亚附近海域

命  名: “科吉”，KOJI

中心位置: 南纬19.8度，东经147.6度

强度等级: 热带低压

最大风力: 7级，15米/秒，相当于我国的热带低压级

中心气压: 991百帕

参考位置: 位于澳大利亚昆士兰州境内

变化过程: “科吉”登陆后减弱为热带低压

预报结论: “科吉”登陆后继续向南偏西方向移动，强度减弱。受其影响，昆士兰州东北部的艾尔（Ayr）至麦凯（Mackay）之间局地可能出现极端强降雨。

（这是发关于“科吉”的最后一期监测公报）



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年1月11日08时00分）

“杜扎伊”于今天早上在西南印度洋生成

时  间: 11日08时（北京时，下同）

海  域: 西南印度洋

命  名: “杜扎伊”，DUDZAI

中心位置: 南纬14.5度，东经76.6度

强度等级: 热带风暴

最大风力: 8级，18米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级

中心气压: 998百帕

参考位置: 距离毛里求斯路易港东北方向约2100公里

变化过程: “杜扎伊”于今天早上在西南印度洋生成

预报结论: “杜扎伊”将以每小时11公里左右的速度向南偏东方向移动，强度逐渐增强。