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本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2026-3-4 12:15 编辑
WTPS31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (TWENTYFOUR) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/031921ZMAR2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (TWENTYFOUR) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 14.2S 150.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 150.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 14.7S 150.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 15.3S 148.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 16.0S 147.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 17.0S 145.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 19.3S 141.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 150.6E.
04MAR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (TWENTYFOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
331 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 040000Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 031930).//
NNNN
- WDPS31 PGTW 040300
- MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
- SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (TWENTYFOUR)
- WARNING NR 001//
- RMKS/
- 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
- 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
- SUMMARY:
- INITIAL POSITION: 14.2S 150.8E
- INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
- GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 331 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA
- MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02 KTS
- SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET
- SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
- ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY
- EXPOSED, TIGHTLY WOUND, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE LLCC
- EMERGED OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS AS DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED WESTWARD.
- A 032239Z GMI COLOR-ENHANCED 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE CONFIRMED A WELL-
- DEFINED LLCC, WITH THE BULK OF DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER A
- MID-LEVEL VORTEX TO THE WEST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH
- HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CLEARLY DEFINED CIRCULATION IN THE MSI.
- THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE PGTW
- DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS T2.5, WHILE KNES IS AT T3.0;
- HOWEVER, THE KNES FIX POSITION IS CENTERED ON SHEARED CONVECTIVE
- ELEMENTS, LIKELY OVERESTIMATING THE INTENSITY. A 031952Z SMOS PASS
- REVEALED A SWATH OF 30-35 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
- QUADRANTS OF THE LLCC, SUPPORTING THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE.
- ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE, WITH WARM SSTS
- AND MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE, LARGELY OFFSET BY LOW TO
- MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
- INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SMOS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA
- CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
- SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) SITUATED OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA.
- AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
- PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
- KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
- CIMSS D-PRINT: 32 KTS AT 040000Z
- FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
- VWS: 15-20 KTS
- SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
- OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
- ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
- INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
- INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
- INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
- 3. FORECAST REASONING.
- SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
- MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
- FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24P HAS REMAINED QUASI-
- STATIONARY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, AS THE VORTEX STRUCTURE BECAME
- VERTICALLLY DECOUPLED DUE TO PERSISTENT MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR.
- CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT AND VORTEX REALIGNMENT ARE ANTICIPATED
- WITHIN THE NEXT SIX HOURS. SUBSEQUENT TO REORGANIZATION, THE SYSTEM
- WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
- DEEP-LAYER STR TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN THIS
- TRAJECTORY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH LANDFALL PROJECTED IN
- THE VICINITY OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, NEAR TAU 48. REGARDING INTENSITY,
- THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION AS THE
- VORTEX CONSOLIDATES. PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS FORECAST BY TAU 24;
- HOWEVER, MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND INCREASED SHEAR POST-TAU 24
- WILL LIKELY INHIBIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL. UPON
- MOVING INLAND, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION
- AND FULLY DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 72.
- MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC, ENSEMBLE AND ARTIFICIAL
- INTELLIGENCE (AI) TRACK GUIDANCE ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT FOR THE
- DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALL CONSENSUS MEMBERS INDICATE SLOW
- MEAN MOTION THROUGH TAU 12, FOLLOWED BY SOUTHWESTWARD ACCELERATION AS
- THE STEERING GRADIENT TIGHTENS. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IS APPROXIMATELY
- 100NM AT LANDFALL (TAU 48), WITH THE UKMET (EGRR) DEFINING THE
- NORTHERN ENVELOPE AND ECMWF DEFINING THE SOUTHERN, PLACING THE MULTI-
- MODEL CONSENSUS (CONW) DIRECTLY OVER CAIRNS. BY TAU 72, CROSS-TRACK
- UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SLIGHTLY TO 135NM. WHILE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS
- LARGELY CONSISTENT, THE GEFS DEPICTS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD WITH OUTLIER
- MEMBERS EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA TO EAST OF BRISBANE,
- WHICH INTRODUCES A MODERATE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY. THE JTWC FORECAST
- IS POSITIONED NEAR THE CONSENSUS MEAN WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
- INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED, AND THE JTWC FORECAST ALIGNS
- WITH HAFS-A, HWRF, AND COAMPS-TC WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
- TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
- INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
- NNNN
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发表于 2026-2-28 08:14
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