西澳西北热带低压30U(26S) - 逐渐西行

Ragasa · 发表于 2026-3-2 12:41

本帖最后由 Ragasa 于 2026-3-7 05:07 编辑

93S INVEST 260302 0600 16.5S 122.0E SHEM 15 0

Ragasa · 发表于 2026-3-2 14:53

ABIO10 PGTW 020600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/020600Z-021800ZMAR2026//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.5S
122.0E, APPROXIMATELY 88 NM NORTH OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES FLARING CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD, DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOONAL TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THIS AREA REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT,
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C), OFFSET BY HIGH NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25 KTS). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
MODELS PREDICT GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AS IT TRANSITS WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1).//
NNNN

pocketbox · 发表于 2026-3-2 17:52

Tropical Low 30U
Moderate chance of 30U developing into a tropical cyclone north of the Pilbara coast from Thursday.

Tropical low 30U is forecast to move offshore from the Kimberley coast late Tuesday or early Wednesday.
Environmental conditions are somewhat favourable for development, and the chance of 30U developing into a tropical cyclone increases to Moderate from Thursday.
30U is likely to move in a general west to southwest direction, while remaining well to the north of the Pilbara coast.

Last updated
an hour ago, 08:50 am UTC

Tropical lows

Today 12:00 pm

Tomorrow 12:00 am

Tomorrow 12:00 pm

Wed 4 Mar 12:00 am

Wed 4 Mar 12:00 pm

Thu 5 Mar 12:00 am

Thu 5 Mar 12:00 pm

Fri 6 Mar 12:00 am

Fri 6 Mar 12:00 pm

Sat 7 Mar 12:00 am

Sat 7 Mar 12:00 pm

Sun 8 Mar 12:00 am

Sun 8 Mar 12:00 pm

Mon 9 Mar 12:00 am

Mon 9 Mar 12:00 pm

Tropical Low 30U

null (None)

1 (Very Low)

10 (Low)

15 (Low)

25 (Moderate)

35 (Moderate)

25 (Moderate)

15 (Low)

pocketbox · 发表于 2026-3-4 08:45

本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2026-3-4 09:15 编辑

Headline:
None

Areas affected:
Warning zone: None.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zones: None.

Details of Tropical Low 30U at 8:00 am AWST:
Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 75 kilometres of 16.3 degrees South, 121.1 degrees East , 220 kilometres north northwest of Broome and 520 kilometres north northeast of Port Hedland .
Movement: southwest at 15 kilometres per hour .

Details:

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	8 am March 4	tropical low	16.3S	121.1E	75
+6hr	2 pm March 4	tropical low	16.2S	120.6E	95
+12hr	8 pm March 4	tropical low	16.2S	120.3E	115
+18hr	2 am March 5	tropical low	16.5S	119.8E	130
+24hr	8 am March 5	tropical low	16.7S	118.5E	140
+36hr	8 pm March 5	tropical low	17.2S	116.2E	160
+48hr	8 am March 6	tropical low	16.4S	113.7E	175
+60hr	8 pm March 6	tropical low	16.3S	112.4E	185
+72hr	8 am March 7	tropical low	16.4S	110.9E	195

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue
The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 3:00 pm AWST Wednesday

Ragasa · 发表于 2026-3-4 11:06

ABIO10 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/040300Z-041800ZMAR2026//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
   (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
11.7S 108.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.6S 109.4E, APPROXIMATELY 228 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) FEATURING FLARING CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY AND SHEARING TO THE WEST, AND EXPOSED SHALLOW
BANDING FEATURES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. A 031422Z ASCAT
(METOP-B) PARTIAL PASS REVEALS 30KT WINDS TO THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A TIGHT CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATELY
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29 C), MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, CONTRASTED BY
THE STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30 TO 40KTS). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE FORMATION AND GENERAL
EASTWARD TRACK OF 90S IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 030630) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
   (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
16.4S 122.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.1S 121.0E, APPROXIMATELY 132 NM
NORTHWEST OF BROOME. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT HAS NOW MOVED
RAPIDLY OFFSHORE, FEATURING DEEP CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(15 TO 20KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30 TO 31 C), GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE STEADY
DEVELOPMENT AND GENERAL WEST TRACK OF 93S IN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
   (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2) TO
MEDIUM.//
NNNN

pocketbox · 发表于 2026-3-4 14:45

本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2026-3-4 15:15 编辑

Headline:
None

Areas affected:
Warning zone: None.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zones: None.

Details of Tropical Low 30U at 2:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 15.8 degrees South, 120.1 degrees East , 330 kilometres northwest of Broome and 525 kilometres north northeast of Port Hedland .
Movement: west northwest at 20 kilometres per hour .

Details:

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	2 pm March 4	tropical low	15.8S	120.1E	55
+6hr	8 pm March 4	tropical low	16.3S	119.9E	80
+12hr	2 am March 5	tropical low	16.7S	119.3E	95
+18hr	8 am March 5	tropical low	16.9S	118.3E	110
+24hr	2 pm March 5	tropical low	17.2S	117.0E	120
+36hr	2 am March 6	tropical low	16.9S	114.7E	150
+48hr	2 pm March 6	tropical low	16.3S	112.9E	170
+60hr	2 am March 7	tropical low	16.4S	111.8E	170
+72hr	2 pm March 7	tropical low	16.4S	110.1E	175

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue
The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 9:00 pm AWST Wednesday

pocketbox · 发表于 2026-3-4 20:50

本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2026-3-4 21:05 编辑

Headline:
Moderate chance of Tropical Low 30U developing into a tropical cyclone well north of the Pilbara coast from Thursday.

Areas affected:
Warning zone: None.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zones: None.

Details of Tropical Low 30U at 8:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 75 kilometres of 16.2 degrees South, 119.9 degrees East , 315 kilometres northwest of Broome and 480 kilometres north northeast of Port Hedland .
Movement: west at 12 kilometres per hour .

Tropical low 30U is currently located to the west of the Kimberley. It is forecast to continue moving west, remaining well off the coast.

Environmental conditions are somewhat favourable for development, and the chance of 30U developing into a tropical cyclone increases to Moderate from later on Thursday. It will continue tracking west, remaining well north of the Pilbara coast, and no direct impacts are expected to the WA mainland. 30U should weaken early next week over waters well to the west of WA.

Details:

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	8 pm March 4	tropical low	16.2S	119.9E	75
+6hr	2 am March 5	tropical low	16.4S	119.4E	95
+12hr	8 am March 5	tropical low	16.7S	118.7E	110
+18hr	2 pm March 5	tropical low	17.2S	117.5E	105
+24hr	8 pm March 5	tropical low	17.2S	116.1E	120
+36hr	8 am March 6	tropical low	16.6S	113.7E	135
+48hr	8 pm March 6	tropical low	16.6S	112.3E	135
+60hr	8 am March 7	tropical low	16.7S	110.6E	145
+72hr	8 pm March 7	tropical low	17.1S	108.8E	160

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue
The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 3:00 am AWST Thursday

pocketbox · 发表于 2026-3-4 22:20

本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2026-3-4 22:30 编辑

WTXS21 PGTW 041430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.9S 120.5E TO 17.2S 112.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 041400Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.0S 120.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
16.1S 121.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.0S 120.0E, APPROXIMATELY 176 NM
NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
CONVECTIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY HESITANT ON
THE FORMATION OF 93S WHILE ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OVERALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A WESTWARD
TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 996 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
051430Z.//
NNNN

Ragasa · 发表于 2026-3-5 04:35

Headline:
Moderate chance of Tropical Low 30U developing into a tropical cyclone well north of the Pilbara coast from this evening.

Areas affected:
Warning zone: None.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zones: None.

Details of Tropical Low 30U at 2:00 am AWST:
Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 16.2 degrees South, 120.2 degrees East , 290 kilometres northwest of Broome and 490 kilometres north northeast of Port Hedland .
Movement: slow moving .

Tropical low 30U is currently located to the west of the Kimberley. Recently it has been slow moving, but it is forecast to move steadily west and remain well off the coast.

Environmental conditions are somewhat favourable for development, and the chance of 30U developing into a tropical cyclone increases to Moderate from later today. It will remain well north of the Pilbara coast as it moves west, and no direct impacts are expected to the WA mainland. 30U should weaken early next week over waters well to the west of WA.

Details:

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	2 am March 5	tropical low	16.2S	120.2E	35
+6hr	8 am March 5	tropical low	16.7S	119.0E	60
+12hr	2 pm March 5	tropical low	17.1S	117.7E	85
+18hr	8 pm March 5	tropical low	17.4S	116.3E	100
+24hr	2 am March 6	tropical low	17.1S	114.8E	105
+36hr	2 pm March 6	tropical low	16.6S	113.2E	120
+48hr	2 am March 7	tropical low	16.8S	111.6E	120
+60hr	2 pm March 7	tropical low	17.0S	109.7E	135
+72hr	2 am March 8	tropical low	17.4S	107.9E	155

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue
The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 9:00 am AWST Thursday

pocketbox · 发表于 2026-3-5 09:00

本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2026-3-5 09:15 编辑

Headline:
Tropical Low 30U moving west and to remain far enough north of the Pilbara not to cause any impacts to the coast.

Areas affected:
Warning zone: None.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zones: None.

Details of Tropical Low 30U at 8:00 am AWST:
Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 45 kilometres of 16.5 degrees South, 119.5 degrees East , 330 kilometres west northwest of Broome and 435 kilometres north northeast of Port Hedland .
Movement: west southwest at 15 kilometres per hour .

Tropical low 30U is forecast to move steadily west and remain well off the coast. Environmental conditions are mixed for development although there is a window of opportunity from Friday into the weekend and the chance of 30U developing into a tropical cyclone increases to Moderate.

No direct impacts are expected to the WA mainland. 30U should weaken early next week over waters well to the west of WA.

Details:

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	8 am March 5	tropical low	16.5S	119.5E	45
+6hr	2 pm March 5	tropical low	17.0S	118.3E	70
+12hr	8 pm March 5	tropical low	17.2S	117.1E	85
+18hr	2 am March 6	tropical low	17.3S	115.8E	105
+24hr	8 am March 6	tropical low	16.9S	114.5E	115
+36hr	8 pm March 6	tropical low	16.6S	112.7E	125
+48hr	8 am March 7	tropical low	16.8S	110.9E	115
+60hr	8 pm March 7	tropical low	17.2S	109.2E	130
+72hr	8 am March 8	tropical low	17.8S	107.1E	155

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue
The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 3:00 pm AWST Thursday

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