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本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2026-3-17 12:00 编辑
WTPS31 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070151MAR2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 12.3S 156.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S 156.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 12.0S 155.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 12.1S 153.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 12.6S 150.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 13.2S 147.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 13.6S 143.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 13.7S 138.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 14.1S 133.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 12.2S 156.2E.
17MAR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 685 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS
TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 170000Z IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
171500Z AND 180300Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 161830).//
NNNN
- WDPS31 PGTW 170300
- MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
- SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (TWENTYSEVEN)
- WARNING NR 001//
- RMKS/
- 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
- 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
- SUMMARY:
- INITIAL POSITION: 12.3S 156.6E
- INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
- GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 685 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA
- MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS
- SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET
- SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
- ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A
- CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT
- DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE LLCC WAS FULLY
- EXPOSED EARLIER IN THE DAY DUE TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR, BUT
- SUBSEQUENTLY TUCKED UNDER REDEVELOPING CONVECTION IN THE HOURS PRIOR
- TO 0000Z. A 162315Z ASCAT-C BULLSEYE REVEALED A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH
- A BAND OF 35-40KT WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND
- PROVIDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO BOTH THE INITIAL POSITION AND
- INTENSITY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
- INTENSIFICATION, CHARACTERIZED BY LOW DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
- (VWS), WARM SSTS, MODERATE OHC AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A
- DEEP
- UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING TO THE SOUTH.
- INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA
- CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
- SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED OVER EASTERN AUSTRALIA.
- AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
- PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
- KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
- ABRF: T2.0 - 30 KTS
- CIMSS D-PRINT: 29 KTS AT 170000Z
- FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
- VWS: 10-15 KTS
- SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
- OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
- ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
- INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
- INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
- INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
- 3. FORECAST REASONING.
- SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
- MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
- FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 27P IS FORECAST TO TRACK
- WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD, ALONG THE
- NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SERIES OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGES (STR) SITUATED
- OVER AUSTRALIA. AS THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE
- SYSTEM PROPAGATES OFF TO THE EAST; THE STEERING GRADIENT WILL
- TIGHTEN, ALLOWING TC 27P TO ACCELERATE AFTER TAU 12. BY TAU 48, A
- SECOND TROUGH WILL TRANSIT THE EASTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA,
- WEAKENING THE STR AXIS AND INDUCING A DECELERATION AS TC 27P
- APPROACHES LANDFALL ALONG THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA, WHICH IS
- EXPECTED TO OCCUR NEAR TAU 72. AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE CAPE YORK
- PENINSULA, THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTS EASTWARD, AND A SECOND
- STR DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA IN ITS WAKE. TC 27P IS FORECAST
- TO ACCELERATE WESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA AFTER TAU 72,
- MAKING A SECOND LANDFALL ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF THE GULF PRIOR TO
- TAU 96, THEN CONTINUING INLAND TO A POSITION SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN BY
- THE END OF THE FORECAST. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES IN TRACK
- SPEED AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE, WHICH WILL HAVE CORRESPONDING IMPACTS
- ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST. IN THE SHORT-TERM, THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
- UNDERGOING VORTEX ALIGNMENT AND WILL EXHIBIT A MODEST INTENSIFICATION
- RATE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, GENERALLY FOLLOWING THE STANDARD
- T-NUMBER DEVELOPMENTAL CLIMATOLOGY. AFTER TAU 24, ONCE THE VORTEX
- ALIGNS, TC 27P WILL INTENSIFY AT A RAPID RATE BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 48
- AS SHEAR LESSENS AND THE SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE HIGH OCEAN HEAT
- CONTENT OF THE CORAL SEA. PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO
- OCCUR COINCIDENT WITH LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY
- AS IT TRANSITS CAPE YORK, BUT UNDERGO RE-INTENSIFICATION IN THE GULF
- OF CARPENTARIA, ALTHOUGH MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE
- MAGNITUDE OF RE-DEVELOPMENT. AFTER THE SECOND LANDFALL, TC 27P WILL
- RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THE
- ULTIMATE INTENSITY OF TC 27P WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON THE TRACK
- SPEED, WITH A SLOWER SPEED EQUATING TO A HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY.
- LANDFALL TIMING REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN, WITH THE FORECAST HEDGED ON
- THE EARLIER SIDE CURRENTLY.
- MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC, ENSEMBLE AND ARTIFICIAL
- INTELLIGENCE (AI) TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT WITH THE
- OVERALL TRACK DIRECTION, WITH CROSS-TRACK SPREAD INCREASING TO
- APPROXIMATELY 150NM BY TAU 120. THE GALWEM AND EGRR ARE NORTHERN
- OUTLIERS FROM THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE PACKAGE, WITH THE SYSTEM
- TRACKING TOWARD THE LATITUDE OF WEIPA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE
- PACKAGE IS TIGHTLY CONFINED NEAR THE CONSENSUS MEAN. HOWEVER, ALONG-
- TRACK SPREAD IS MUCH HIGHER, EMERGING AS EARLY AS TAU 36, INCREASING
- TO 215NM AT TAU 72 BETWEEN THE FAST-BIASED ECMWF AND SLOW-BIASED GFS.
- ALONG-TRACK UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO INCREASE TO 400NM BETWEEN THE
- OUTLIERS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE JTWC FORECAST IS
- HEDGED TOWARDS THE FASTER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE, CLOSE TO THE MULTI-
- MODEL CONSENSUS MEAN, WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TRENDING TO LOW
- CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO
- HIGHLY UNCERTAIN, BOTH IN THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF THE PEAK
- INTENSITY. THE FASTER MODELS SUCH AS ECMWF AND HWRF SHOW A LOWER PEAK
- INTENSITY AT LANDFALL BUT HIGHER POTENTIAL IN THE GULF OF
- CARPENTARIA. THE SLOWER MODELS SUCH AS GFS DEPICT A STRONGER SYSTEM
- AT LANDFALL AND A WEAKER ONE IN THE GULF. THE JTWC FORECAST IS
- ROUGHLY CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSENSUS, HEDGED TOWARDS THE HIGHER END
- OF THE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
- TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
- TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
- INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
- INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
- NNNN
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发表于 2026-3-15 04:32
发表于 2026-3-15 04:37
