空间天气实况贴

Лотон

缓变型 中等太阳质子事件（中度辐射风暴）
NOAA分级S2，GEO处 ≥10兆电子伏的质子通量（5min平均值）达到148pfu，超过10pfu阈值，50 100能量段有小幅上升
缓变型质子事件一般和ICME前向激波脱不开关系，是激波电场加速过来的



昨天X1.8的CME，对地有效性IV halo，速度Type O

Лотон

X2.0 13878（NOAA）  N15E28
没有伴随大尺度扰动，本事件无CME


3B/X2.0

Лотон

X1.2 东翼边缘附近3947，今年的第一个X

Лотон

13号冕洞（见solar synoptic map）高速流（HSS）引发的小地磁暴，NOAA分级G1（Kp5-）
众所周知冕洞区域是开放磁力线，高速太阳风的发源地，同样遵循帕克螺旋，当冕洞转入西半球时对地效应才会逐渐显现出来，如果一个CR之后冕洞依然存在就有可能导致重现性地磁暴，冕洞发出的高速流与速度较低的背景太阳风相互作用，同时随太阳一起自转就是共转相互作用区（CIR），
从昨天开始太阳风速度开始缓慢上升（见RTSW），在一天左右的时间内从300km/s左右上升至600km/s左右，同时温度上升，密度下降，由低温低速流进入高温低密度的高速流，流界面出现在17z左右，我们认为那就是一个流界面。

有意思的是速度方面从18z左右开始有不同程度的晃动，速度表现的不稳定，不规律，即有湍洞的特征，一般只有高速流里才有


鄙人很少发关于冕洞的，影响不是很大，关注度不高，但不代表其影响可以忽略，同样是日地空间天气的根源之一，往后到了低年你就会发现大部分地磁扰动原因来自冕洞，今天闲的没事儿发一个关于冕洞的（

Лотон

M3.3，LDE，来自西翼边缘刚刚转出可见日面的AR3990

爆发后半小时，高能质子打到地球，≥10MeV质子通量突然开始上升，一次脉冲型太阳质子事件（见图）
≥10MeV最高达37pfu

该事件伴随明显的CME（见动图 lasco C3）

质子事件引发的PCA event（见d-rap），这里最高给到35兆赫，包括了短波，即3-30兆赫。第一张图是全球的，以1分贝为标准，30兆赫以下的频率信号下降1分贝及以上。第二张图是极区的，用来看PCA用的，以10分贝为标准，标准更高。质子冲击力更大，要与中性成分碰撞，直接导致电离，就像拿光（耀斑）照一下你和用棍子（质子）打一下你哪个更疼一样，因此极区的标准要更高一些。看图，也就是说，10兆赫（不包括）以下的频率下降10分贝及以上，高于10兆赫的频率（见第一张图），虽然也有影响，但并没有超过10分贝，因此不会在此图上呈现。

闽海星尘

UPGRADE to G4 Watch for 1-2 June
published: Saturday, May 31, 2025 20:43 UTC
The G4 (Severe) geomagnetic storm watch is now in effect for 1 and 2 June. A powerful coronal mass ejection (CME) erupted from the Sun the evening of 30 May. Confidence in an Earth-directed component is good, but the CME arrival timing is more uncertain due to the current state of the solar wind. It could arrive as early as late morning EDT, to as late as Sunday evening EDT of 1 June. The center of the bulk CME material is anticipated to be just north of Earth, however, Earth will still likely undergo passage of much of the CME material. Arrival will likely lead to immediate geomagnetic disturbances with the potential for G4. Conditions will likely intensify as CME progression continues and G4 levels remain possible on Monday, 2 June. Geomagnetic storm levels will likely begin subsiding by Tuesday, 3 June, with G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) still possible. These watches represent potential based on our best analyses. We will not know the true nature of this CME’s geomagnetic storm potential until the CME arrives at our solar wind observatories located 1 million miles from Earth. Upon arrival at those spacecraft, we will know the magnetic strength and orientation that are very important to what levels and duration of geomagnetic storm conditions are expected to occur and any appropriate warnings may be issued. As always visit our website for the latest information and updates.

闽海星尘

G4 Watch Key Messages
published: Saturday, May 31, 2025 21:41 UTC
We will not know the true nature of the CME structure until it arrives at our solar wind observatories located 1 million miles from Earth. Meanwhile, these Watches represent our best assessment based on potential. When the CME arrives, it is at that point, SWPC forecasters can make determinations about warnings and subsequent alerts. Please continue to visit our website for the latest information and updates.

闽海星尘

roduct: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Jun 01 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 01-Jun 03 2025 is 7.67 (NOAA Scale
G4).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 01-Jun 03 2025

             Jun 01       Jun 02       Jun 03
00-03UT       4.00         7.00 (G3)    5.33 (G1)
03-06UT       4.00         7.67 (G4)    5.67 (G2)
06-09UT       4.00         6.67 (G3)    5.00 (G1)
09-12UT       3.67         6.33 (G2)    4.67 (G1)
12-15UT       7.67 (G4)    6.00 (G2)    4.67 (G1)
15-18UT       7.67 (G4)    6.00 (G2)    4.33     
18-21UT       7.33 (G3)    5.67 (G2)    4.67 (G1)
21-00UT       7.33 (G3)    5.33 (G1)    4.33     

Rationale: By midday on 01 Jun, conditions are expected to increase
rapidly with the arrival of the expected CME from 31 May. G3-G4
(Strong-Severe) conditions are likely, with a chance for G5 (Extreme)
levels on 01-02 Jun. G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) conditions are expected to
persist on 03 Jun.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
above S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 01-Jun 03 2025

              Jun 01  Jun 02  Jun 03
S1 or greater   75%     75%     75%

Rationale: S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected to
persist on 01-03 Jun.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at May 31 2025 0030 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 01-Jun 03 2025

              Jun 01        Jun 02        Jun 03
R1-R2           65%           65%           65%
R3 or greater   25%           25%           25%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a
slight chance for R3 (Strong), over 01 Jun - 03 Jun due to the flare
potential from multiple complex regions on the Suns visible disk.