2502号热带气旋“圣帕”(02W.Sepat)机构发报专帖

ygsj24

WTPN31 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (SEPAT) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (SEPAT) WARNING NR 012   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   250600Z --- NEAR 32.7N 139.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 32.7N 139.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 34.5N 140.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 37.0N 142.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 19 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 39.7N 146.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 33.1N 139.8E.
25JUN25. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (SEPAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
156 NM SOUTH OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 250600Z IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
251500Z, 252100Z, 260300Z AND 260900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

ygsj24

WDPN31 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (SEPAT) WARNING
NR 012//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 32.7N 139.6E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 25 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 156 NM SOUTH OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 07 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION TRACKING WEAKLY NORTHWARD IN A
COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN TWO WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGES
TO THE EAST AND WEST. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W IS IN A UNFAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT AS HIGHLIGHTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY, PREVENTING OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE SHALLOW NATURE OF TD
02W IS IDENTIFIED IN A 250334Z GCOM W1 AMSR2 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
WHICH REVEALS THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
CIRCULATION, BUT DEEP CONVECTION IS ABSENT IN THE 89GHZ IMAGE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED ANIMATED MSI REVEALING THE FULLY EXPOSED CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON EARLIER 250334Z GCOM W1 AMSR2 WIND SPEED DATA
REVEALING A SWATH OF 25KTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
LLCC.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN
TWO SUBTROPICAL RIDGES

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
   PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   RJTD: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 25 KTS AT 250220Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 25-26 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 02W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 12
HOURS. AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL INCREASE TRACK SPEED AS IT
BECOMES EMBEDDED IN AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSUME A
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. THE SYSTEM WILL COMMENCE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BETWEEN TAU 12-24 AFTER PASSING INTO COOL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU 36
AS IT BECOMES FULLY BAROCLINIC AND COLD CORE. THE SYSTEM IS NOT
ANTICIPATED TO INTENSIFY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
AND IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN 25KTS AFTER BECOMING BAROCLINIC.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD BY TAU 36
IS 75NM, LENDING TO THE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. THE
ONLY OUTLIER IS GALWEM, WHICH DEPICTS AN UNREALISTIC SOLUTION FAR
WEST OF THE JTWC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS
ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN 25-30KTS FOR THE
NEXT 36 HOURS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
NNNN

ygsj24

WTPN31 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (SEPAT) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (SEPAT) WARNING NR 013   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   251200Z --- NEAR 33.7N 139.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 33.7N 139.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z --- 35.9N 141.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 21 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z --- 39.0N 145.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 34.3N 140.2E.
25JUN25. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (SEPAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
96 NM SOUTH OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 251200Z IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
252100Z, 260300Z AND 260900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

2018_26W

WDPN31 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (SEPAT) WARNING
NR 013//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 33.7N 139.8E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 25 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 96 NM SOUTH OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 10 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FLARE
OF CONVECTION BUILDING EAST OF AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST HAS CLEARLY BEGUN TO
INFLUENCE THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD), INDUCING STRONG WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS APPROACHING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE,
WHICH IS AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS UNFAVORABLE AS TD 02W IS CENTERED IN AN UPPER-LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ANIMATED EIR. THE POSITION
IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY AN EARLIER 251105Z TROPICS-5 TMS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALING A DEEP CONVECTIVE PLUME IN THE VICINITY
OF THE IDENTIFIED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
25 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 251053Z METOP-B
ASCAT IMAGE REVEALING A SWATH OF 25KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE EAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
   PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 33 KTS AT 250911Z
   CIMSS ADT: 25 KTS AT 250830Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 25-26 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 02W IS APPROACHING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS OVER COOL WATERS (BELOW 26C) WITHIN THE NEXT
12 HOURS, INITIATING A PERIOD OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE
PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM DRIVING THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST IS
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. AN APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH
WILL INCREASE TRACK SPEED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY 25KTS FOR THE NEXT
12 HOURS. TD 02W WILL INTENSIFY TO 30KTS AFTER TAU 12 DUE TO
BAROCLINIC FORCING AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES FULLY EXTRATROPICAL.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IS 25NM BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE ALONG-TRACK SPREAD IS 140NM BY TAU 24.
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT AS WELL THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN 25-30KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
NNNN

ygsj24

WTPN31 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (SEPAT) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (SEPAT) WARNING NR 014   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   251800Z --- NEAR 34.5N 140.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   REPEAT POSIT: 34.5N 140.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 37.2N 142.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 25 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 40.8N 147.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 35.2N 140.9E.
25JUN25. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (SEPAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
56 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 251800Z IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
260300Z, 260900Z AND 261500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

ygsj24

WDPN31 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (SEPAT) WARNING
NR 014//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 34.5N 140.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 25 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 56 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A NEARLY
FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION (TD) 02W (SEPAT). DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED, AS THE
ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY HOSTILE TOWARD TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT. EIR REVEALS SMALL FLARE UPS OF CONVECTION, IMMEDIATELY
SHEARED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) ARE
GETTING COOLER AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS POLEWARD AND EASTWARD AND ARE
CURRENTLY BELOW 24 C. TD 02W IS BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH FROM THE
WEST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN
ALMOST FULLY EXPOSED LLCC IN THE EIR IMAGERY LOOP. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 25 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
AGENCY DVORAK AND THE AUTOMATED FIXES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
   PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 31 KTS AT 251730Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 38 KTS AT 251730Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 27 KTS AT 251820Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 23-24 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK RADIAL
   OTHER FACTORS: SYSTEM IS BEGINNING ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD SEPAT IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION AS IT CROSSED THE AXIS OF A STR TO THE EAST AND ENTERED THE
REGION OF COOLER (23-24 C) WATERS. TRACK FORECAST CALLS FOR
ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD MOTION, ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE. TD 02W WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND
IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A COLD CORE, BAROCLINIC SYSTEM BY THE
END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.

MODEL DISCUSSION: JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE, AS THE NUMERICAL TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, WITNESSED BY A 55 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 24.
MEANWHILE, THE ALONG-TRACK SPREAD IS 135 NM INDICATING SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN REGARD TO THE RATE OF ACCELERATION. INTENSITY
FORECAST IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AS ALL MODELS INDICATE
STRENGTHENING THROUGHOUT TAU 24, HOWEVER THE RATE OF
INTENSIFICATION VARIES BETWEEN GUIDANCE. JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN