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ABPW10 PGTW 102030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/102030Z-110600ZJUL2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/102021ZJUL2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
23.2N 141.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 141.1E, APPROXIMATELY 26 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A COMPACT, WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) OBSCURED BY PERSISTENT CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE
CENTER. A SURFACE OBSERVATION TAKEN FROM IWO TO AT 101800Z SHOWS EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 20 KNOTS GUSTING AT 31 KNOTS. A 101637Z AMSR2
GW1 89GHZ IMAGE REVEALS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST, WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-30 C) AND MODERATE EASTWARD OUTFLOW. A TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) FURTHER EAST OF THE SYSTEM IS ENHANCING THE
EASTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL OF THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWARD TRACK WITH
MARGINAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH ECENS BEING THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE OVERALL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A
(WTPN21 PGTW 102030) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
25.9N 126.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 126.7E, APPROXIMATELY 56 NM
WEST OF KADENA AB. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR)
DEPICTS AN ELONGATED AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING WITH SPARSE CONVECTION
FLARING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC).
FURTHERMORE, A 101313Z ASCAT METOP-B PASS EMPHASIZES THE BROAD NATURE
OF 92W. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 92W IS IN A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29 C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON A
NORTHWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, WITH GFS BEING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF INTENSITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO HIGH.//
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