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发表于 2025-7-11 04:50 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 yhh 于 2025-7-11 09:19 编辑

WTPN21 PGTW 102030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 24.1N 141.1E TO 27.1N 141.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 101800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 24.4N 141.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
23.2N 141.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 141.1E, APPROXIMATELY 26 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A COMPACT, WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) OBSCURED BY PERSISTENT CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE
CENTER. A SURFACE OBSERVATION TAKEN FROM IWO TO AT 101800Z SHOWS EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 20 KNOTS GUSTING AT 31 KNOTS. A 101637Z AMSR2 GW1
89GHZ IMAGE REVEALS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(29-30 C) AND MODERATE EASTWARD OUTFLOW. A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH (TUTT) FURTHER EAST OF THE SYSTEM IS ENHANCING THE EASTWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL OF THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWARD TRACK WITH MARGINAL INTENSIFICATION
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH ECENS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OVERALL.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
112030Z.
//
NNNN



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 楼主| 发表于 2025-7-11 04:50 | 显示全部楼层
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 楼主| 发表于 2025-7-11 09:56 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC/06W/#01/07-11 00Z

本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2025-7-11 10:30 编辑

WTPN31 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/102021ZJUL2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   110000Z --- NEAR 25.0N 140.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 25.0N 140.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z --- 26.0N 140.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z --- 26.8N 140.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z --- 27.6N 141.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z --- 28.8N 142.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z --- 33.8N 143.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 29 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z --- 44.7N 148.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 25.3N 140.4E.
11JUL25. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 50
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 110000Z IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z, 112100Z AND 120300Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 102030).//
NNNN

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 楼主| 发表于 2025-7-11 11:15 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC/06W/#01/07-11 00Z Prognostic Reasoning

本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2025-7-11 18:00 编辑

WDPN31 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING
NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 25.0N 140.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 50 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF IWO TO
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
DEPRESSION (TD) 06W WITH A WELL-DEFINED, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE
SOUTH. DEEP CONVECTION WAS PREVIOUSLY (AT AROUND 2200Z) BUILDING
OVER THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM, BUT HAS SINCE BEEN SHEARED OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST. A 102118Z WSFM 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE
TIGHTLY WRAPPING LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF DEEP
CONVECTION WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT 06W IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE EASTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, MODERATE (15-20
KTS) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING
OVER THE SYSTEM, PREVENTING CONVECTION FROM BUILDING OVER THE
CENTER AND CAUSING THE ELEVATED SHEAR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC IN ANIMATED
MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS IS ALSO ASSESSED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM IWO TO REPORTING 28
KTS AT 2100Z AS THE CIRCULATION PASSED ABOUT 20 NM TO THE WEST OF
THE ISLAND.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WEAK RIDGING EXTENDING FROM AN
ELONGATED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED FAR OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
   PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   KNES: T1.5 - 25 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE EASTWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
OVER THE TOP OF THE SYSTEM.

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: 06W IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD AS RIDGING BUILDS IN TO THE EAST
OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. DEEP-LAYER CYCLONIC TURNING
TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM WILL PREVENT A STRAIGHT NORTHWARD TRACK
AND WILL GUIDE THE VORTEX NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 48. STARTING AT
TAU 48, TRACK SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE STEERING
PATTERN BECOMES MUCH MORE DEFINED DUE TO THE WESTWARD PROPAGATION
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS WILL CAUSE 06W TO TRACK NORTHWARD
THROUGH TAU 72. NEAR TAU 84, AN INCOMING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
ABSORB THE VORTEX AND PULL IT QUICKLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE NEAR TAU 96 AS THE
SYSTEM BECOMES EXTREMELY ELONGATED AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
UPPER-LEVEL JET MAX. REGARDING INTENSITY, 06W IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD (15-20
KTS) AS A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONES INTERACT WITH THE SYSTEM.
HOWEVER, OUTFLOW WILL BE ENHANCED IN THE EASTWARD AND POLEWARD
DIRECTIONS, ALLOWING FOR THE INTENSIFICATION. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 48, DRY AIR WILL START TO BE ENTRAINED INTO THE
CORE OF THE VORTEX, HALTING FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. AN INTENSITY
NEAR 45 KTS IS THEN FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS 06W TRANSITIONS INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN MODERATE
AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GALWEM, WHICH TRACKS THE VORTEX OFF TO
THE NORTHWEST RATHER THAN NORTHEAST AFTER TAU 48. DISCOUNTING GALWEM,
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE ON THE TRAJECTORY OF 06W.
AFTER TAU 72, MODELS GREATLY DIVERGE DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN
INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. AS A RESULT, THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 72 AND
LOW CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. INTENSITY GUIDANCE AGREES ON GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 48 WITH A STEADY INTENSITY AFTERWARD.
MODELS RANGE FROM 40-50 KTS FROM TAUS 48-96. THE JTWC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

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 楼主| 发表于 2025-7-11 15:14 | 显示全部楼层

JMA/TD-a/07-11 06Z

本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2025-7-11 15:40 编辑

熱帯低気圧 a
2025年07月11日16時15分発表

11日15時の実況
種別        熱帯低気圧
大きさ        -
強さ        -
存在地域        小笠原近海
中心位置        北緯25度00分 (25.0度)
東経140度00分 (140.0度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 ゆっくり
中心気圧        1002 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15 m/s (30 kt)
最大瞬間風速        23 m/s (45 kt)

12日15時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        -
存在地域        父島の西南西約190km
予報円の中心        北緯26度20分 (26.3度)
東経140度30分 (140.5度)
進行方向、速さ        北北東 15 km/h (7 kt)
中心気圧        1000 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18 m/s (35 kt)
最大瞬間風速        25 m/s (50 kt)
予報円の半径        130 km (70 NM)

13日15時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        -
存在地域        小笠原近海
予報円の中心        北緯29度05分 (29.1度)
東経141度55分 (141.9度)
進行方向、速さ        北北東 15 km/h (8 kt)
中心気圧        996 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        20 m/s (40 kt)
最大瞬間風速        30 m/s (60 kt)
予報円の半径        200 km (110 NM)

14日15時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        -
存在地域        日本の東
予報円の中心        北緯36度50分 (36.8度)
東経142度10分 (142.2度)
進行方向、速さ        北 35 km/h (19 kt)
中心気圧        994 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        20 m/s (40 kt)
最大瞬間風速        30 m/s (60 kt)
予報円の半径        260 km (140 NM)

15日15時の予報
種別        温帯低気圧
強さ        -
存在地域        千島近海
予報円の中心        北緯46度25分 (46.4度)
東経147度50分 (147.8度)
進行方向、速さ        北北東 50 km/h (26 kt)
中心気圧        1002 hPa
予報円の半径        330 km (180 NM)



  1. WTPQ30 RJTD 110600
  2. RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
  3. REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT 25.0N 140.0E
  4. 1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  5.   A TD IS LOCATED AT 25.0N, 140.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  6.   POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
  7.   POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002HPA AND
  8.   MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 30KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
  9.   IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
  10.   HIGH SSTS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM
  11.   TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  12.   INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
  13.   OBSERVATIONS.
  14. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  15.   THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
  16.   SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED
  17.   MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS HAVE GATHERED AROUND THE CSC. GCOM-W/AMSR2
  18.   89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH
  19.   CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
  20. 3.TRACK FORECAST
  21.   THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
  22.   MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
  23.   GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM
  24.   WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER
  25.   THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT96.
  26.   THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
  27.   OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
  28.   NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
  29. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  30.   THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  31.   INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE
  32.   SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
  33.   INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE
  34.   SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LOWER
  35.   SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL BE UPGRADED TO TS INTENSITY BY FT24. THE
  36.   SYSTEM WILL THEN TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT96.
  37.   THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
  38.   INCLUDING GSM.
  39. =
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 楼主| 发表于 2025-7-11 15:37 | 显示全部楼层

KMA/TD/07-11 06Z

No.10 Tropical Depression KMA | Issued At: Fri, 11 Jul 2025, 16:30
Date(UTC)
Intensity
Maximum Sustained
Wind(m/s)
Central Pressure (hPa)
Position
Moving Direction
Moving Speed(km/h)
Radius of 15 m/s(km)
[Exceptional radius]
Radius of 25 m/s(km)
[Exceptional radius]
Radius of 70% probability(km)
m/s
km/h
Lat
(N)
Lon
(E)
Fri, 11 Jul 2025, 06:00 Analysis
-
TD
15
54
1002
25.1
140.1
W
3
-
Sat, 12 Jul 2025, 06:00 Forecast
-
1
18
65
1000
26.0
140.5
NNE
4
180
[W 80]
90
Sun, 13 Jul 2025, 06:00 Forecast
-
1
20
72
996
29.2
142.0
NNE
16
270
[W 150]
130
Mon, 14 Jul 2025, 06:00 Forecast
-
1
21
76
994
35.5
142.3
N
29
380
[W 250]
190
Tue, 15 Jul 2025, 06:00 Forecast
-
L
18
65
1000
46.0
147.0
NNE
51
280

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 楼主| 发表于 2025-7-11 15:44 | 显示全部楼层

CWA/TD07/07-11 06Z

本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2025-7-11 15:50 编辑

熱帶性低氣壓TD07

現況
2025年07月11日14時
中心位置在北緯 25.0 度,東經 140.0 度
過去移動方向 -
過去移動時速 -公里
中心氣壓 1000百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 15 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 23 公尺

預測
預測 6 小時平均移向移速為
北北西 時速 13 公里
預測 07月11日20時
中心位置在北緯 25.7 度,東經 139.8 度
中心氣壓1000百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 15 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 23 公尺
70%機率半徑 40 公里

預測 6-12 小時平均移向移速為
北北東 緩慢移動
預測 07月12日02時
中心位置在北緯 25.9 度,東經 139.9 度
中心氣壓1000百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 15 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 23 公尺
70%機率半徑 80 公里

預測 12-18 小時平均移向移速為
東 緩慢移動
預測 07月12日08時
中心位置在北緯 25.9 度,東經 140.2 度
中心氣壓1000百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 15 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 23 公尺
70%機率半徑 105 公里

預測 18-24 小時平均移向移速為
東 時速 10 公里
預測 07月12日14時
中心位置在北緯 25.9 度,東經 140.8 度
中心氣壓1000百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 15 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 23 公尺
70%機率半徑 130 公里

預測 24-36 小時平均移向移速為
東北 時速 15 公里
預測 07月13日02時
中心位置在北緯 26.9 度,東經 142.2 度
中心氣壓1000百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 15 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 23 公尺
70%機率半徑 160 公里

預測 36-48 小時平均移向移速為
北北東 時速 25 公里
預測 07月13日14時
中心位置在北緯 29.5 度,東經 143.0 度
中心氣壓995百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 20 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 28 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 80 公里
70%機率半徑 250 公里

預測 48 小時內有發展為輕度颱風的趨勢

預測 48-72 小時平均移向移速為
北 時速 31 公里
預測 07月14日14時
中心位置在北緯 36.2 度,東經 142.6 度
中心氣壓988百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 23 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 30 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 120 公里
70%機率半徑 330 公里

預測 72-96 小時平均移向移速為
北北東 時速 54 公里
預測 07月15日14時
中心位置在北緯 46.8 度,東經 148.8 度
中心氣壓1000百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 15 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 23 公尺
70%機率半徑 450 公里







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 楼主| 发表于 2025-7-11 16:04 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC/06W/#02/07-11 06Z

本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2025-7-11 16:15 编辑

WTPN31 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 002   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   110600Z --- NEAR 25.0N 140.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 25.0N 140.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z --- 25.8N 140.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z --- 26.3N 140.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z --- 27.2N 141.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z --- 29.0N 141.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z --- 36.3N 142.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 27 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z --- 46.2N 147.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 25.2N 140.0E.
11JUL25. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 72
NM WEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 110600Z IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
111500Z, 112100Z, 120300Z AND 120900Z.
//
NNNN

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 楼主| 发表于 2025-7-11 17:11 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC/06W/#02/07-11 06Z Prognostic Reasoning

WDPN31 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING NR
002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 25.0N 140.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 72 NM WEST OF IWO TO
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 04 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A
QUASI-STATIONARY, NEARLY FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W. RECENT FLARING
CONVECTION HAS BEEN IMMEDIATELY SHEARED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. A
110621Z F18 SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SUITE REVEALS A CONSOLIDATING
STRUCTURE OF THE LOWER LEVELS, WITH ASYMMETRICAL CONVECTING BANDING
AND ASSOCIATED WIND FIELD, AS ALSO ANALYZED USING A 110332Z GCOMW1
AMSR2 WIND SPEED PRODUCT. LACK OF PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION CAN
BE ATTRIBUTED TO THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIRECTLY
ABOVE THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A NEARLY FULLY EXPOSED LLCC PRESENT IN THE
ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY, WHILE THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
30 KTS IS ALSO ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY
DVORAK FIXES, AUTOMATED AIDS LISTED BELOW, AS WELL AS A RECENT
SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM IWO TO REPORTING 15-20 KTS SOUTHERLY
WINDS. ADDITIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE TO HIGH DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE, LOW
(10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, AND AN UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE REGION TO THE SOUTH
AMPLIFYING EQUATORWARD PORTION OF THE OUTFLOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: COMPETING STEERING BETWEEN RIDGING TO
THE NORTHWEST AND A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
   PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   RJTD: T1.0 - 25 KTS
   KNES: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 30 KTS AT 110600Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 26 KTS AT 110610Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE SYSTEM

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 06W HAS RECENTLY BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY IN
RESPONSE TO ITS LOCATION WITHIN A COL REGION, BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF
RIDGING TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST. AS A RESULT, TRANSLATION
SPEEDS OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOW, WHILE THE
STEERING PATTERN DEVELOPS. WHILE THE SYSTEM IS HEADING NORTH AND
NORTHEASTWARD, AROUND TAU 36, RIDGING TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AND MOVE WESTWARD, WHILE THE STR EXTENSION TO THE EAST WILL
BUILD AND MOVE WESTWARD AS WELL. AS A RESULT, TD 06W IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN ACCELERATING AND TRACKING NORTHWARD AROUND TAU 36, WHILE
SLIGHTLY INTENSIFYING, REACHING PEAK WIND SPEEDS OF AROUND 50 KTS BY
TAU 48. AT THE SAME TIME, FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WILL BE HINDERED BY DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT, EXPECTED TO START SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTING THE CORE OF
THE VORTEX. AROUND TAU 78, TD 06W WILL BEGIN INTERACTING WITH A
PASSING LONGWAVE TROUGH, AND EVENTUALLY BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC FLOW. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS THEREFORE
FORECAST TO BEGIN SHORTLY AFTER OR AROUND TAU 72 AND COMPLETE BY TAU
96.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT OVERALL, WITH ALL CONSENSUS MEMBERS AGREEING ON SLOW
INITIAL SPEED OVER WATER AND A GENERALLY NORTHWARD TRACK, FOLLOWED
BY A NORTHEASTWARD TURN. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 48 IS HOWEVER
EXPANDING TO 165 NM, FROM 100 NM AT TAU 36. AFTER TAU 72, GALWEM
AND UKMET ENSEMBLE BECOME THE OUTLIERS, PREDICTING A NORTHWESTWARD
TURN, WHILE THE REMAINING MEMBERS OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
AGREE ON A NORTHWARD TRACK, WITH A NORTHEASTWARD TURN SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. JTWC FORECAST IS THEREFORE ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE FOR THE SHORT TERM, FOLLOWED BY LOW CONFIDENCE TOWARDS
THE END OF THE CURRENT PERIOD, AND IS LAID SLIGHTLY ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MEANWHILE, THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL FAIR AGREEMENT, WITH ALL MEMBERS PREDICTING
INITIAL GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION, FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING BEGINNING
AROUND TAU 60. PEAK INTENSITY SPREAD IS CURRENTLY AT 20 KTS, WITH
THE DETERMINISTIC GFS BEING THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE, AND HAFS
PROJECTING STRONGEST WINDS AROUND 55 KTS, NEAR TAU 60.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

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 楼主| 发表于 2025-7-11 18:13 | 显示全部楼层

JMA/TD-a/07-11 09Z

本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2025-7-11 18:20 编辑

熱帯低気圧 a
2025年07月11日19時15分発表

11日18時の実況
種別        熱帯低気圧
大きさ        -
強さ        -
存在地域        小笠原近海
中心位置        北緯25度00分 (25.0度)
東経140度00分 (140.0度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 ゆっくり
中心気圧        1004 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15 m/s (30 kt)
最大瞬間風速        23 m/s (45 kt)

12日18時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        -
存在地域        父島の西南西約150km
予報円の中心        北緯26度30分 (26.5度)
東経140度50分 (140.8度)
進行方向、速さ        北北東 15 km/h (7 kt)
中心気圧        1000 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18 m/s (35 kt)
最大瞬間風速        25 m/s (50 kt)
予報円の半径        130 km (70 NM)

13日15時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        -
存在地域        小笠原近海
予報円の中心        北緯29度05分 (29.1度)
東経141度55分 (141.9度)
進行方向、速さ        北北東 15 km/h (8 kt)
中心気圧        996 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        20 m/s (40 kt)
最大瞬間風速        30 m/s (60 kt)
予報円の半径        200 km (110 NM)

14日15時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        -
存在地域        日本の東
予報円の中心        北緯36度50分 (36.8度)
東経142度10分 (142.2度)
進行方向、速さ        北 35 km/h (19 kt)
中心気圧        994 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        20 m/s (40 kt)
最大瞬間風速        30 m/s (60 kt)
予報円の半径        260 km (140 NM)

15日15時の予報
種別        温帯低気圧
強さ        -
存在地域        千島近海
予報円の中心        北緯46度25分 (46.4度)
東経147度50分 (147.8度)
進行方向、速さ        北北東 50 km/h (26 kt)
中心気圧        1002 hPa
予報円の半径        330 km (180 NM)

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