波多黎各东北90L - 20.0N 59.6W - NHC:80%

ygsj24

260
WTNT41 KNHC 240232
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062025
1100 PM AST Sat Aug 23 2025

Fernand is still trying to become better organized this evening. A
recent scatterometer pass around 0052 UTC depicted a peak wind speed
around 31 kt, southeast of the center. Latest satellite images show
there has been a recent burst in the last few hours over the
low-level center, although some of the outer rain bands have
diminished. Subjective and objective intensity estimates remain
around 35-40 kt. Using a blend of the estimates and recent satellite
trends, the intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory.

The lastest motion is north-northeast at 015/14. Fernand is being
steered around the western edge of the subtropical ridge, which will
cause the storm to move north-northeastward during the next few
days. The system will then turn more northeastward within the flow
between the ridge and an approaching trough, and accelerate over the
north Atlantic. Model guidance is in fairly good agreement and the
latest NHC forecast is similar to the previous one, near the
corrected-consensus HCCA.

Fernand is within a favorable environment for intensification, with
warm sea surface temperatures and light wind shear. However, models
depict some mid-level dry air near it, which may hinder the
strengthening rate and structure. The intensity guidance has come
down slightly this cycle, and the latest NHC forecast follows those
trends with a peak intensity now at 55 kt, on the higher end of the
guidance envelope. The storm should begin to weaken as SSTs cool and
wind shear increases by day 3, and the system will likely become
post-tropical by day 4.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0300Z 28.8N  61.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  24/1200Z 30.6N  60.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  25/0000Z 32.9N  59.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  25/1200Z 35.0N  58.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
48H  26/0000Z 37.4N  57.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
60H  26/1200Z 40.0N  55.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
72H  27/0000Z 43.0N  51.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
96H  28/0000Z 49.0N  40.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly