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本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2025-9-3 12:00 编辑
892
WTPZ41 KNHC 030233
TCDEP1
Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025
500 PM HST Tue Sep 02 2025
Recent satellite images show that the low-level center of Kiko is
now obscured by a large central dense overcast, possibly due to an
increase in northeasterly vertical wind shear, with the outflow now
somewhat restricted in the eastern semi-circle. A 02/2155Z AMRS2
microwave pass indicated that the cyclone continues to have a
well-defined inner-core, with a break in the eyewall evident in the
northwest quadrant at that time. The most recent subjective Dvorak
current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were both 5.0/90 kt,
while the objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have ranged between 72
and 92 kt during the past several hours. Taking a blend of these
data, the initial intensity for this advisory has been raised to 90
kt.
Kiko is moving due west, or 270 degrees, at 6 kt. This general
motion is expected to continue during the next 60 hours or so, as
the cyclone is steered by a building subtropical ridge to its north
and northwest. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast by day
3 as an upper-level trough north of Hawaii begins to erode the
western portion of the subtropical ridge, with this general motion
then continuing through day 5. There remains considerable
along-track spread among the global models, with the GFS and ECMWF
still showing a 240 n mi difference in position on day 5. The
official track forecast remains in good agreement with a blend of
the latest multi-model consensus aids and is nearly on top of the
previous advisory, but with a slightly faster forward speed.
Kiko will remain over warm waters of 27–28C and influenced by most
light vertical wind shear through day 3. The surrounding
environmental mid-level moisture will remain drier than optimal,
hovering between 50 and 60 percent through day 3, then trending
below 50 percent by days 4 and 5. Despite the drier mid-level
airmass, the light vertical wind shear and warm sea surface
temperatures should maintain Kiko as a robust hurricane through day
3, with it likely being a major hurricane for much of that time. By
days 4 and 5, the cyclone will begin moving over cooler water with
gradually increasing westerly vertical wind shear. This should lead
to a steady weakening trend, but Kiko is still forecast to be a
hurricane at day 5. The official forecast is on the higher end of
the intensity guidance suite, and is most closely aligned with the
HCCA and regional hurricane model intensity aids.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/0300Z 13.8N 129.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 13.8N 130.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 13.8N 131.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 13.9N 133.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 14.1N 135.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 05/1200Z 14.4N 136.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 06/0000Z 14.8N 138.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 07/0000Z 16.1N 141.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 08/0000Z 17.3N 144.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)
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楼主: 1007圆规
发表于 2025-9-3 02:10
