墨西哥以西一级飓风“洛雷娜”(12E.Lorena) - 逐渐北上，趋向下加利福尼亚 - NHC:75KT

ygsj24

745
WTPZ42 KNHC 042034
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122025
200 PM MST Thu Sep 04 2025

Strong southwesterly wind shear and cold water temperatures have
taken their toll on Lorena.  The convection has completely fallen
apart and detached itself from the low-level circulation today,
leaving an exposed swirl that is evident on GOES-18 visible
channels.  An Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance Aircraft, which was
just in the center, measured maximum 850-mb flight-level winds of 52
kt, which corresponds to about 42 kt at the surface.  The central
pressure is estimated at 996 mb based on dropsonde data from the
aircraft.  Additionally, a recent ASCAT pass showed an area of 35-40
kt winds, mostly in the NW quadrant.  The initial intensity
estimate, based on the aforementioned data, has been reduced to 45
kt.

Confidence is high that the cyclone will continue to weaken as it
moves over progressively colder water and into stronger
southwesterly wind shear.  The timing of when Lorena is forecast to
weaken to a remnant low has been moved up to 24 h, but it could
occur sooner, as most of the convection has already been sheared off
well to the northeast of the low-level circulation.  The latest NHC
track forecast has been shifted slightly to the left, or slightly
farther offshore of the Baja California peninsula, compared to the
previous NHC forecast, closer to the latest models.

Some large rainfall totals have already been observed across
portions of Baja California Sur, and the risk of life-threatening
flash flooding will continue across portions of the area through
Friday.  Abundant moisture will continue to stream northeastward
away from the cyclone.  Because of that, there is still a
significant risk of heavy rainfall and flash flooding across
portions of Baja California Sur, Sonora, southern Arizona and New
Mexico.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Lorena will continue to impact
Baja California Sur and Sonora Mexico through Friday. This will
increase the risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides
across northwest Mexico.

2. Moisture from Lorena will contribute to heavy rainfall concerns
across Arizona and New Mexico through Saturday. Isolated to
scattered instances of flash flooding are possible across Arizona
into Saturday.

3. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions will affect
portions of the southern and western coasts of Baja California Sur
during the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/2100Z 24.6N 114.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
12H  05/0600Z 25.0N 114.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  05/1800Z 25.4N 114.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H  06/0600Z 25.9N 114.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  06/1800Z 26.3N 114.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H  07/0600Z 26.7N 115.3W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen