孟加拉湾西部低压01B(BOB 07) - 北印新风季首旋

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WTIO31 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 004   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   020000Z --- NEAR 16.9N 85.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.9N 85.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z --- 18.6N 84.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z --- 20.3N 83.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z --- 21.7N 82.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 85.0E.
02OCT25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 387 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 020000Z IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z.
//
NNNN

1. WDIO31 PGTW 020300
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR
   
4. 004//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 16.9N 85.2E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 387 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. A 02003Z GMI SERIES ALLOWED FOR CONFIDENT FIXING OF THE LOW LEVEL
    
18. CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), EXPOSING THE LOP-SIDED CONVECTIVE
    
19. SHIELD. VIGOROUS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPEDE DEVELOPMENT
    
20. OF TC 01B. THE SYSTEM IS ASSESSED AT 35KTS BASED ON THE JTWC
    
21. DVORAK AND A CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE OF 38KTS, AVERAGED WITH AN ADT
    
22. ASSESSMENT OF 32KTS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE
    
23. AGAINST THE VIGOROUS NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR. THE BULK OF THE DEEP
    
24. CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT BUT SATELLITE
    
25. ANIMATION VERIFIES THE EASTERLIES OVER THE TOP OF THE SYSTEM ARE
    
26. WRAPPING INTO THE CORE. THE UPSTREAM ENVIRONMENT INDICATES A LITTLE
    
27. EASING OF THE WIND SHEAR AND SLIGHTLY WARMING SEA SURFACE
    
28. TEMPERATURES ALONG TRACK.
    
29. 
    
30. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NO CHANGES SINCE 011204Z ASCAT.
    
31. 
    
32. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A MID-LEVEL EXTENSION OF THE
    
33. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF BENGAL IS FORCING THE
    
34. SYSTEM TOWARDS THE INDIAN COAST.
    
35. 
    
36. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
37.    PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
    
38.    KNES: T1.5 - 25 KTS
    
39.    CIMSS SATCON: 38 KTS AT 012015Z
    
40.    CIMSS ADT: 32 KTS AT 020000Z
    
41.    CIMSS D-MINT: 28 KTS AT 020033Z
    
42.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 33 KTS AT 020100Z
    
43. 
    
44. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
    
45.    VWS: 20-25 KTS
    
46.    SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
    
47.    OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD
    
48. 
    
49. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
50.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
    
51.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
52.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
53. 
    
54. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
55. 
    
56. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
57. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
58. 
    
59. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B WILL CONTINUE ITS
    
60. NORTHWESTERLY TRACK THROUGH AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS AND
    
61. LOWER WIND SHEAR, SUSTAINING THE SYSTEM THROUGH LANDfALL. IT IS
    
62. EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE SOUTH OF BRAHMAPUR, NEAR PALASA. WIND FIELDS
    
63. WILL REMAIN UNBALANCED, WITH NO GALE FORCE EASTERLIES LIKELY OVER
    
64. THE POLEWARD SEMICIRCLE.
    
65. 
    
66. MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE IS EXCELLENT AND IN TIGHT
    
67. AGREEMENT AND THE JTWC FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
    
68. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS FLAT OR DECLINING, BUT THE FORECAST INTENSITY
    
69. IS HELD STEADY DUE TO THE LOWER VWS AND WARMER SEA SURFACE
    
70. TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM.
    
71. 
    
72. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
73.    TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
    
74.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
    
75. NNNN

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WTIO31 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 005   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   020600Z --- NEAR 18.6N 84.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.6N 84.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z --- 20.1N 84.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z --- 21.6N 83.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 19.0N 84.7E.
02OCT25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 020600Z IS 995 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z.
//
NNNN

1. WDIO31 PGTW 020900
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR
   
4. 005//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 18.6N 84.9E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 310 NM SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A HEAVILY
    
18. SHEARED CENTRAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
    
19. CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OF TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B. HIGH (20-25
    
20. KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) FROM THE EAST IS NOT ONLY HINDERING
    
21. ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT, BUT ALSO NEARLY FULLY EXPOSING THE
    
22. LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS THEREFORE PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
    
23. AND IS ADDITIONALLY BASED ON THE EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 020330Z
    
24. METOP-B ASCAT PASS.THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ALSO ASSESSED
    
25. WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT. HINDERING
    
26. EFFECTS OF STRONG VWS ARE MITIGATED BY OTHERWISE FAVORABLE
    
27. ENVIRONMENT, CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
    
28. AND MODERATE WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
    
29. 
    
30. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: A 020330Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS
    
31. 
    
32. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
    
33. CENTERED TO THE EAST
    
34. 
    
35. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
36.    PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
    
37.    KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
    
38.    DEMS: T2.0 - 30 KTS
    
39.    CIMSS ADT: 33 KTS AT 020300Z
    
40.    CIMSS AIDT: 33 KTS AT 020500Z
    
41.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 35 KTS AT 020530Z
    
42. 
    
43. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
    
44.    VWS: 20-25 KTS
    
45.    SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
    
46.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD
    
47. 
    
48. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
49.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
50.    INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
    
51.    INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
    
52. 
    
53. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
54. 
    
55. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
56. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
57. 
    
58. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 01B IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE
    
59. NEXT FEW HOURS, STEERED BY A DEEP STR TO THE EAST. VWS WILL REMAIN
    
60. HIGH, NOT ALLOWING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION, AND SOON
    
61. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SUFFER FROM THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND
    
62. INTERACTION. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR, NEAR BRAHMAPUR, INDIA.
    
63. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND IS EXPECTED TO FULLY
    
64. DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
    
65. 
    
66. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE AND INTENSITY
    
67. GUIDANCE ARE BOTH IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND RESULT IN HIGH CONFIDENCE
    
68. OF THE OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST, WHICH CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE
    
69. MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
    
70. 
    
71. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
72.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
    
73.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
    
74. NNNN

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WTIO31 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 006   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   021200Z --- NEAR 19.5N 84.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.5N 84.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z --- 20.9N 83.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 84.5E.
02OCT25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 278 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR)
DEPICTS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BECOMING BROAD AND EXPOSED OVER
EASTERN INDIA WITH A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF CONVECTION OVER THE
WESTERN QUADRANTS. TC 01B CONTINUES ON ITS NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND
IS EXPECTED TO FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 12. OBSERVATIONS ARE IN LINE
WITH FORECASTED INTENSITY WITH CONTINUED RAPID WEAKENING EXPECTED.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 021200Z IS 995
MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 18 FEET.
//
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