牙买加以南五级飓风“梅利莎”(13L.Melissa) - 风眼深邃对流强劲，严重威胁牙买加 - NHC:145KT 908mb

TaotaoFengyun

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风云三号E星底层扫描

327

327 发表于 2025-10-27 22:00
投落仪阵风很强，支持145节

NHC也升了
dropsondes in the northeastern eyewall that support an initial
intensity of 145 kt

pocketbox

WTNT43 KNHC 271448
TCDAT3

Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025

Melissa has the classic strong hurricane appearance in satellite
imagery this morning, with a well-defined 10-nm wide eye embedded
in a central dense overcast with cloud tops colder than -80C. The
hurricane also has a large complex of outer banding over the
eastern semicircle and a circulation that covers most of the
Caribbean west of 70 degrees west longitude. Reports from NOAA and
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate the central
pressure has fallen to near 908 mb, with both aircraft releasing
dropsondes in the northeastern eyewall that support an initial
intensity of 145 kt. The NOAA aircraft left the storm early after
experiencing severe turbulence in the southwestern eyewall.

The eye is wobbling around due to the slow motion, but the best
estimate of the initial motion is 270/3 kt.  The mid-level ridge
north of Melissa is weakening as a deep-layer mid-latitude trough
moves eastward through the southeastern United States.  This should
cause the hurricane to turn northward during the next 12 h or so at
a continued slow forward speed.  After 24 h, Melissa should turn
northeastward with some increase in forward speed as the
mid-latitude westerly flow becomes the dominant steering
mechanism. This general motion should continue for the rest of the
forecast period.  On the forecast track, the center of Melissa will
be near or over Jamaica late tonight or early Tuesday, cross
eastern Cuba Tuesday night or early Wednesday, and then move near
or over the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos on Wednesday.  After
that, the cyclone could reach the vicinity of Bermuda on Thursday
night. The new forecast track has some minor adjustments from the
previous track and is a blend of the HFIP Corrected Consensus, the
Google DeepMind ensemble mean, and the other consensus models.

Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next 12-24 h
due to the possibility that Melissa will start an eyewall
replacement cycle. However, this is unlikely to weaken Melissa
significantly, and there is no practical difference in Melissa
making landfall in Jamaica at category 4 or 5 intensity, since both
categories produce catastrophic wind damage. After reaching Jamaica,
a combination of land interaction and increasing southwesterly shear
should cause some weakening, although Melissa is still forecast to
be a major hurricane when it reaches Cuba.  Once over the Atlantic,
stronger shear should cause more substantial weakening, and Melissa
is expected to become extratropical by the end of the forecast
period.  The new intensity forecast has minor adjustments from the
previous and follows the trend of the intensity consensus.


Key Messages:

1. Jamaica:  Do not venture out of your safe shelter. Catastrophic
and life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides are
likely today through Tuesday. Catastrophic winds in the eyewall have
the potential to cause total structural failure especially in higher
elevation areas tonight and early Tuesday.  This will result in
extensive infrastructural damage, long-lasting power and
communication outages, and isolated communities. Life-threatening
storm surge and damaging waves are expected along the southern coast
through Tuesday.

2. Haiti and the Dominican Republic:  Catastrophic and
life-threatening flash flooding and landslides are expected across
southwestern Haiti and southern portions of the Dominican Republic
through midweek.  In Haiti, extensive infrastructural damage and
isolation of communities is likely. Tropical storm conditions are
expected late Tuesday and Wednesday.

3. Eastern Cuba:  Heavy rainfall with life-threatening and
potentially catastrophic flash flooding and landslides is expected
beginning today. Life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds are
expected late Tuesday and Tuesday night.   Preparations should be
rushed to completion.

4. Southeast Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos: Hurricane conditions,
life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall are possible on
Wednesday. Residents should follow advice given by local officials
and be sure to have preparations complete by Tuesday night.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/1500Z 16.4N  78.2W  145 KT 165 MPH
12H  28/0000Z 16.9N  78.3W  145 KT 165 MPH
24H  28/1200Z 17.8N  77.9W  140 KT 160 MPH
36H  29/0000Z 19.1N  76.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
48H  29/1200Z 20.8N  75.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
60H  30/0000Z 23.0N  73.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
72H  30/1200Z 25.9N  71.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
96H  31/1200Z 34.3N  63.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  01/1200Z 42.8N  50.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven

327

投落仪WL150支持155节。这次NHC会直接升至155节吗？

恒信金仁

现在德法7.5刚刚好155节 这货也算是卧薪尝胆了

327

NHC新报升至150节

Ragasa

WTNT33 KNHC 271733
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 25A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025

...CATEGORY 5 MELISSA MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND
EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD LATER TODAY...
...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING WINDS, FLOODING, AND STORM
SURGE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 78.3W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...906 MB...26.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and
Holguin.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southeastern and central Bahamas
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Haiti
* Cuban province of Las Tunas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be complete in Jamaica and rushed to completion
in Cuba.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Warning may be required for portions of the Bahamas and
the Turks and Caicos islands later today or tonight. Interests in
Bermuda should also monitor the progress of Melissa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Melissa was
located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 78.3 West. Melissa is
moving toward the west-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow turn
toward the northwest and north is expected later today, followed by
a turn toward the northeast and a faster forward speed on Tuesday.
A northeastward motion is expected on Wednesday and Thursday. On
the forecast track, the core of Melissa is expected to move over
Jamaica tonight and early Tuesday, across southeastern Cuba Tuesday
night, and across the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday.

Reports from an Air force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 175 mph      
(280 km/h) with higher gusts.  Melissa is a category 5 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in
intensity are likely before Melissa makes landfall on Jamaica on
Tuesday.  However, Melissa is expected to reach Jamaica and
southeastern Cuba as an extremely powerful major hurricane, and will
still be at hurricane strength when it moves across the southeastern
Bahamas.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from the latest Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 906 mb (26.76 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in Jamaica, and
catastrophic and life-threatening hurricane-force wind conditions
are expected to begin tonight and continue into early Tuesday.
Within the eyewall, total structural failure is likely, especially
in higher elevation areas where wind speeds atop and on the windward
sides of hills and mountains could be up to 30 percent stronger.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in eastern Cuba on
Tuesday, with hurricane conditions expected to begin in the
hurricane warning area by Tuesday evening. Tropical storm conditions
are expected in Haiti late Tuesday and Wednesday.

Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are possible in the
southeastern and central Bahamas, as well as the Turks and Caicos
Islands, on Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring rainfall of 15 to 30 inches
to portions of Jamaica and additional rainfall of 8 to 16 inches for
southern Hispaniola through Wednesday, with storm total local maxima
of 40 inches possible.  Catastrophic flash flooding and numerous
landslides are likely.

For eastern Cuba, storm total rainfall of 15 to 20 inches, with
local higher amounts, is expected by Monday into Wednesday resulting
in life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding with
numerous landslides.

Over the Southeast Bahamas, total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches is
expected Tuesday into Wednesday resulting in areas of flash
flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge is likely along the
south coast of Jamaica tonight and on Tuesday.  Peak storm surge
heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level, near and to the
east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. On the northwest
coast of Jamaica, near Montego Bay, there is the possibility of 1 to
3 feet of storm surge above ground level.

There is a potential for significant storm surge along the southeast
coast of Cuba late Tuesday or Wednesday. Peak storm surge heights
could reach 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels, near and to the
east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Storm surge of 4 to 6 ft above normally dry ground is possible in
the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of
Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the
next several days, and the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands,
and Bermuda later this week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

ygsj24

000
WTNT43 KNHC 272042
TCDAT3

Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
500 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025

A few hours ago, data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft showed that the central pressure in Melissa had fallen to
near 906 mb. The aircraft measured maximum 700-mb flight-level
winds of 161 kt, which supports surface winds of near 145 kt. In
addition, low-level winds measured by a dropwindsonde in the
northeastern eyewall support surface winds of 155 kt. During the
time since the aircraft departed the hurricane, there has been
little change in organization and no obvious signs that Melissa has
weakened. Thus, the initial intensity is set at 150 kt as a blend
of the surface wind estimates mentioned above. NOAA and Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft will again investigate Melissa
during the next few hours.

Melissa is starting its northward turn, and the initial motion is
now northwestward or 315/3 kt. The mid-level ridge north of Melissa
continues to weaken as a deep-layer mid-latitude trough moves
eastward through the southeastern United States into the
southwestern Atlantic.  This should cause the hurricane to turn
northward during the next 6-12 h or so at a continued slow forward
speed.  After 18 h or so, Melissa should turn northeastward with
a slight increase in forward speed as the mid-latitude westerly
flow becomes the dominant steering mechanism. A continued
northeastward motion with a significant increase in forward speed
is expected from 36 h through the end of the forecast period. On
the forecast track, the center of Melissa will be near or over
Jamaica late tonight and on Tuesday, cross eastern Cuba Tuesday
night or early Wednesday, and then move near or over the Bahamas
and the Turks and Caicos on Wednesday.  After that, the cyclone
could reach the vicinity of Bermuda on Thursday night. The track
guidance envelope has nudged a little to the west and north since
the previous advisory, and the new forecast track is also a little
to the west and north of the previous track.

Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next 12-24 h
due to the possibility that Melissa will start an eyewall
replacement cycle (ERC). However, the previous aircraft data showed
no evidence that an ERC had started, and it is possible that the
upcoming aircraft may find Melissa is stronger than 150 kt.
Regardless, even with an ERC it is unlikely that Melissa will
weaken significantly before reaching Jamaica, and there is no
practical difference in Melissa making landfall at category 4 or 5
intensity, since both categories produce catastrophic wind damage.
After reaching Jamaica, a combination of land interaction and
increasing southwesterly shear should cause weakening, although
Melissa is still forecast to be a major hurricane when it reaches
Cuba.  Once over the Atlantic, stronger shear should cause more
substantial weakening, and Melissa is expected to become
extratropical by the end of the forecast period as it interacts
with a large baroclinic low over the north Atlantic.  The new
intensity forecast has minor adjustments from the previous and
again follows the trend of the intensity consensus.


Key Messages:

1. Jamaica:  Remain in your safe shelter and do not venture
outside. Catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and numerous
landslides are expected through Tuesday. The eyewall’s destructive
winds may cause total structural failure, particularly in higher
elevations, leading to widespread infrastructural damage, prolonged
power and communication outages, and isolated communities. Along the
southern coast, life-threatening storm surge and damaging waves are
anticipated through Tuesday.

2. Haiti and the Dominican Republic:  Catastrophic and
life-threatening flash flooding and landslides are expected across
southwestern Haiti and southern portions of the Dominican Republic
through midweek.  In Haiti, extensive infrastructural damage and
isolation of communities is likely. Tropical storm conditions are
expected late Tuesday and Wednesday.

3. Eastern Cuba:  Heavy rainfall with life-threatening and
potentially catastrophic flash flooding and landslides is expected
to begin tonight.  Life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds
are expected late Tuesday and Tuesday night.   Preparations should
be rushed to completion.

4. Southeast and Central Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos: Hurricane
conditions, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall are
expected across portions of the southeast and central Bahamas on
Wednesday. Residents should follow advice given by local officials
and be sure to have preparations complete by Tuesday night.  
Tropical storm conditions, heavy rains, and a significant storm
surge is expected in the Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/2100Z 16.7N  78.4W  150 KT 175 MPH
12H  28/0600Z 17.1N  78.3W  145 KT 165 MPH
24H  28/1800Z 18.2N  77.8W  125 KT 145 MPH...INLAND
36H  29/0600Z 19.8N  76.6W  110 KT 125 MPH...OVER WATER
48H  29/1800Z 21.8N  75.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
60H  30/0600Z 24.3N  72.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
72H  30/1800Z 27.8N  69.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
96H  31/1800Z 37.1N  60.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  01/1800Z 44.7N  45.4W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven