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本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2025-10-27 18:20 编辑
WTIO31 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (MONTHA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (MONTHA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 12.7N 84.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7N 84.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 14.0N 83.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 15.0N 82.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 16.2N 82.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 17.6N 81.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 21.1N 80.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 13.0N 84.0E.
27OCT25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (MONTHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 638
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 270600Z IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
271500Z, 272100Z, 280300Z AND 280900Z.
//
NNNN
- WDIO31 PGTW 270900
- MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
- SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (MONTHA) WARNING
- NR 004//
- RMKS/
- 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
- 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
- SUMMARY:
- INITIAL POSITION: 12.7N 84.3E
- INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
- GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 638 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA
- MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS
- SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET
- SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
- TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03B (MONTHA) HAS EXPERIENCED LITTLE CHANGE IN
- STRUCTURE WITH GOOD OUTFLOW AND DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE
- WEST BY HIGH (25-30 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AS DEPICTED IN
- ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE CURRENT
- ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINAL, AS WARM (28-29 C) SEA
- SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND GOOD OUTFLOW ARE OFFSET BY
- PERSISTENT HIGH VWS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
- CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 270430Z METOP-C SCATTEROMETER DATA. THE
- INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
- ON THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ASCAT PASS AND AGENCY FIXES LISTED
- BELOW.
- INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: A 270430Z METOP-C SCATTEROMETER DATA
- CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH
- AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
- PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
- CIMSS SATCON: 37 KTS AT 270045Z
- CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 270300Z
- CIMSS AIDT: 30 KTS AT 270500Z
- CIMSS D-MINT: 32 KTS AT 270403Z
- CIMSS D-PRINT: 40 KTS AT 270700Z
- FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
- VWS: 25-30 KTS
- SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
- OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
- ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
- INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
- INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
- INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
- 3. FORECAST REASONING.
- SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
- THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
- FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC MONTHA WILL CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD UNDER
- THE INFLUENCE OF A STR CENTERED TO THE NORTH. WHILE FORECASTED SEA
- TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENT POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAIN
- ADVANTAGEOUS, TC MONTHA WILL STRUGGLE TO INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY
- DUE TO FORECASTED VWS. MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS OF 45 KTS ARE EXPECTED
- AROUND TAU 12. AFTER TAU 24, AND JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL OVER THE
- EASTERN INDIAN COAST, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. TC
- MONTHA WILL FULLY DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 72.
- MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
- WITH A CROSS TRACK SPREAD OF 30 NM UNTIL TAU 24. AFTERWARDS GFS
- BREAKS FROM THE OTHER MODELS AND PUSHES THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY
- NORTHEAST UNTIL IT IS JUST SOUTH OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA. THE JTWC
- FORECASTED TRACK IS PLACED BETWEEN THE MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS AND
- ECMWF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. FORECASTED
- INTENSITY HAS A 15-20 KT SPREAD WITH THE MODELS AGREEING ON A
- DOWNWARD TREND AFTER TAU 24. THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES CLOSE
- TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
- TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
- INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
- NNNN
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楼主: Ragasa
发表于 2025-10-27 11:25
