MEDIUM - 南海南部热带低压“森亚尔”(BOB 08/04B.Senyar) - 罕见位置成旋，26日登陆苏门答腊岛，折返东行进入南海再发展 - JMA:GW

pocketbox

ABPW10 PGTW 281200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/281200Z-290600ZNOV2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/280751ZNOV2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 28NOV25 0600Z, TROPICAL STORM 33W (KOTO) WAS LOCATED NEAR
12.5N 112.7E, APPROXIMATELY 331 NM SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, AND
HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS GUSTING TO 65
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 280900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 04B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
3.7N 101.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.8N 103.5E, APPROXIMATELY 155 NM NORTH
OF SINGAPORE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AS WELL
AS A 280608Z GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A VERY BROAD AND
DISORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (28-29 C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND PERSISTENT DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS. GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CIRCULATION WILL
CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ECMWF BEING MORE FAVORABLE FOR A
SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM WITHIN 48 HOURS. GFS ON THE OTHER HAND REMAINS
HESITANT ON A WELL ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH THE REMNANTS OF 04B REMAINING
RELATIVELY RAGGED THROUGHOUT ITS LIFE.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO MEDIUM//
NNNN

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红豆棒冰冰

稍后MetOp-B应该能扫中，可以关注一下

Enceladus

看起来状态不差

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC及JMA 12Z定位相差不大

04B INVEST 251128 1200 4.3N 104.3E IO 20 1005

WTPQ51 RJTD 281200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME  TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN  281200UTC 04.3N 103.9E FAIR
MOVE  N SLOWLY
PRES  1006HPA
MXWD  030KT
GUST  045KT
FORECAST
12HF  290000UTC 04.6N 106.1E 55NM 70%
MOVE  E 11KT
PRES  1002HPA
MXWD  035KT
GUST  050KT
24HF  291200UTC 06.2N 107.6E 70NM 70%
MOVE  NE 11KT
PRES  1002HPA
MXWD  035KT
GUST  050KT
48HF  301200UTC 08.3N 110.3E 110NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Enceladus

ECENS中值支持短暂TS