ABPW10 PGTW 012200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/012200Z-020600ZDEC2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/011951ZDEC2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 01DEC25 1800Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 33W (KOTO) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 14.3N 111.2E, APPROXIMATELY 196 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG,
VIETNAM, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 012100) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.4N 138.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 138.1E, APPROXIMATELY 172 NM
NORTH OF YAP. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR)
DEPICTS A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (30-31 C), AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93W WILL
CONTINUE WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13
TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.0S
156.1E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM WEST OF BORA BORA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA
INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28 C), AND
GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 99P WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO
18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1).//
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发表于 2025-12-2 06:39
