TCFA - 圣诞岛东南热带低压03U(93S) - 11.9S 113.2E

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IDW27700
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0134 UTC 17/12/2025
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 03U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 11.8S
Longitude: 113.3E
Location Accuracy: within 30nm (55 km)
Movement Towards: west southwest (250 deg)
Speed of Movement: 4 knots (7 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots (55 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots (100 km/h)
Central Pressure: 997 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:   nm (  km)
Radius of Maximum Winds:   nm (  km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm (335 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  17/0600: 11.9S 113.2E:     040 (080):  035  (065):  999
+12:  17/1200: 12.0S 113.0E:     050 (095):  035  (065):  999
+18:  17/1800: 12.1S 112.6E:     060 (110):  035  (065): 1000
+24:  18/0000: 12.2S 112.2E:     060 (115):  035  (065): 1000
+36:  18/1200: 12.3S 111.4E:     075 (135):  035  (065): 1000
+48:  19/0000: 12.6S 110.4E:     075 (135):  035  (065): 1000
+60:  19/1200: 12.9S 109.4E:     075 (135):  040  (075):  997
+72:  20/0000: 13.3S 108.2E:     090 (170):  040  (075):  998
+96:  21/0000: 13.8S 105.3E:     115 (210):  045  (085):  995
+120: 22/0000: 13.8S 102.6E:     125 (230):  045  (085):  995
REMARKS:
Tropical Low 03U gradually developing well northwest of the WA coast.  

Visible imagery suggests the centre lies near the eastern edge of ongoing deep
convection. WSFM at 2158UTC showed an improved low level circulation on 37GHz
but not yet indicating significant curvature in deep convection. No recent
scatterometry but it is estimated that gales identified on earlier
scatterometry have eased with some weakening of the deep convection removed to
the southwest.  

Intensity analysed at 30 kn based upon a mixture of Dvorak, earlier
scatterometry and NWP guidance. Dvorak analysis: DT varies from 1.5-3.0 using
curved band 0.2-0.4 (1.5-2.5) and shear (2.5-3.0) patterns. MET-2.0 based on D
trend over 24h. FT = CI = 2.0. Objective aids are not yet available.

03U has been slow moving in a weak steering regime for the past few days, but
should now commence a west southwest motion based on a mid-level steering ridge
to the south which should gradually strengthen steering the system to the west
well into next week.

03U is now consolidating ahead of NWP indications. It has been under strong
east northeast shear generated by strong upper level easterlies to the north,
and this is reflected in the main deep convection being displaced west of the
low level centre. As the system drifts further south, conditions for
development should improve as it moves further under the upper ridge, causing
deep layer shear to reduce. At the same time, a distant upper trough to the
southwest may aid in enhancing poleward outflow.  

The forecast is for gradual intensification ahead of model indications and
development prospects appear to be increasing even further than the current
forecast.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 17/0730 UTC.

---

IDW24010
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 9:02 am WST on Wednesday 17 December 2025

A Tropical Low was located at 8:00 am AWST near 11.8S 113.3E, that is 840 km
east of Christmas Island and 1130 km north of Exmouth and moving west southwest
at 7 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Low 03U is located well to the northwest of the Pilbara coast. It is
expected to track to the west southwest and remain well away from the coast.
The low is forecast to gradually develop with improved chances of being a
tropical cyclone in coming days over open waters of the Indian Ocean.

Tropical Low 03U is located well to the northwest of the Pilbara coast. It is
expected to track to the west southwest and remain well away from the coast.
The low is forecast to gradually develop with improved chances of being a
tropical cyclone in coming days over open waters of the Indian Ocean.

Tropical Low 03U poses no threat to the WA mainland.

Tropical Low 03U is forecast to pass south of Christmas Island on the weekend
with no direct impact expected at this stage.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 3:00 pm AWST Wednesday 17
December.


Headline:
Tropical Low 03U gradually developing and remaining well away from the WA coast.


Areas affected:
Warning zone: None.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zones: None.


Details of Tropical Low 03U at 8:00 am AWST:
Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 11.8 degrees South, 113.3 degrees East , 840 kilometres east of Christmas Island and 1130 kilometres north of Exmouth .
Movement: west southwest at 7 kilometres per hour .

Tropical Low 03U is located well to the northwest of the Pilbara coast. It is expected to track to the west southwest and remain well away from the coast. The low is forecast to gradually develop with improved chances of being a tropical cyclone in coming days over open waters of the Indian Ocean.


Hazards:
Tropical Low 03U poses no threat to the WA mainland.

Tropical Low 03U is forecast to pass south of Christmas Island on the weekend with no direct impact expected at this stage.


Recommended Action:
Residents of Christmas Island should monitor forecast updates during the week.

Details:

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	8 am December 17	tropical low	11.8S	113.3E	55
+6hr	2 pm December 17	tropical low	11.9S	113.2E	80
+12hr	8 pm December 17	tropical low	12.0S	113.0E	95
+18hr	2 am December 18	tropical low	12.1S	112.6E	110
+24hr	8 am December 18	tropical low	12.2S	112.2E	115
+36hr	8 pm December 18	tropical low	12.3S	111.4E	135
+48hr	8 am December 19	tropical low	12.6S	110.4E	135
+60hr	8 pm December 19	tropical low	12.9S	109.4E	135
+72hr	8 am December 20	tropical low	13.3S	108.2E	170

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye


Next Issue
The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 3:00 pm AWST Wednesday

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WTXS21 PGTW 170200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.8S 113.3E TO 14.5S 107.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 170200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.9S 113.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
11.2S 113.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9S 113.2E, APPROXIMATELY 451 NM EAST
OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND.ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN SIDE OF A COMPACT AND
RAPIDLY ROTATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH CURVED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION EVIDENT
IN A 162143Z SSMIS IMAGE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MODERATELY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS),
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C), AND PERSISTENT WESTWARD AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
ON FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF 93S OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, WITH GFS
CONSOLIDATING MOST QUICKLY. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GRADUAL SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION OF 93S OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
180200Z.
//
NNNN

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IDW27700
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0704 UTC 17/12/2025
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 03U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 12.0S
Longitude: 113.4E
Location Accuracy: within 25nm (45 km)
Movement Towards: south southeast (154 deg)
Speed of Movement: 2 knots (4 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots (65 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots (95 km/h)
Central Pressure: 997 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:   nm (  km)
Radius of Maximum Winds:   nm (  km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 160 nm (295 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  17/1200: 12.3S 113.3E:     035 (070):  035  (065):  997
+12:  17/1800: 12.4S 112.9E:     045 (085):  035  (065):  998
+18:  18/0000: 12.4S 112.5E:     055 (100):  030  (055): 1000
+24:  18/0600: 12.4S 112.1E:     060 (110):  030  (055): 1000
+36:  18/1800: 12.4S 111.3E:     075 (135):  030  (055): 1000
+48:  19/0600: 12.7S 110.5E:     085 (155):  030  (055): 1000
+60:  19/1800: 13.1S 109.7E:     090 (170):  030  (055): 1001
+72:  20/0600: 13.5S 108.5E:     100 (190):  035  (065):  998
+96:  21/0600: 13.9S 106.0E:     120 (220):  040  (075):  995
+120: 22/0600: 13.7S 103.8E:     145 (265):  040  (075):  995
REMARKS:
Tropical Low 03U now expected to gradually develop this weekend well northwest
of the WA coast.  

Visible imagery shows the centre is now becoming more separated to the east of
the deep convection , indicating any development has been arrested.
Nevertheless OSCAT shows marginal gales to the north of the centre.  

Intensity analysed at 35 kn based upon the OSCAT pass, above subjective Dvorak
and model guidance. Dvorak analysis: DT varies from 1.5-2.5 using curved band
0.2-0.3 (1.5-2.0) and shear (2.0-2.5) patterns. MET-2.0 based on D trend over
24h. FT = CI = 2.0. Objective aids are not yet available.

03U has been slow moving to the south, but is forecast to commence a west
southwest motion from Thursday based on a mid-level steering ridge to the south
that should gradually strengthen, steering the system to the west well into
next week.

Much of the guidance is indicating that 03U will suffer in the short term from
ingestion of dry air with moderate east northeast wind shear. As the system
drifts further south, conditions for development should improve as it moves
further under the upper ridge, causing deep layer shear to reduce. At the same
time, a distant upper trough to the southwest may aid in enhancing poleward
outflow, but access to tropical moisture diminishes.  

The forecast is for some intensification recommencing later Friday into the
weekend with a TC more likely early next week although the more recent guidance
now suggests this is less likely.  

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 17/1330 UTC.

---

IDW24010
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 3:11 pm WST on Wednesday 17 December 2025

A Tropical Low was located at 2:00 pm AWST near 12.0S 113.4E, that is 860 km
east southeast of Christmas Island and 1110 km north of Exmouth and slow moving.

Tropical Low 03U is located well to the northwest of the Pilbara coast. It is
forecast to move to the west southwest and remain well away from the coast. The
low is forecast to gradually develop with improved chances of being a tropical
cyclone this weekend over open waters of the Indian Ocean.

Tropical Low 03U is located well to the northwest of the Pilbara coast. It is
forecast to move to the west southwest and remain well away from the coast. The
low is forecast to gradually develop with improved chances of being a tropical
cyclone this weekend over open waters of the Indian Ocean.

Tropical Low 03U poses no threat to the WA mainland.

Tropical Low 03U is forecast to pass south of Christmas Island on the weekend
with no direct impact expected at this stage.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 9:00 pm AWST Wednesday 17
December.


Headline:
Tropical Low 03U to slowly develop this weekend well away from the WA coast.


Areas affected:
Warning zone: None.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zones: None.


Details of Tropical Low 03U at 2:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 45 kilometres of 12.0 degrees South, 113.4 degrees East , 860 kilometres east southeast of Christmas Island and 1110 kilometres north of Exmouth .
Movement: slow moving .

Tropical Low 03U is located well to the northwest of the Pilbara coast. It is forecast to move to the west southwest and remain well away from the coast. The low is forecast to gradually develop with improved chances of being a tropical cyclone this weekend over open waters of the Indian Ocean.


Hazards:
Tropical Low 03U poses no threat to the WA mainland.

Tropical Low 03U is forecast to pass south of Christmas Island on the weekend with no direct impact expected at this stage.


Recommended Action:
Residents of Christmas Island and Cocos Islands should monitor forecast updates during the week.

Details:

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	2 pm December 17	tropical low	12.0S	113.4E	45
+6hr	8 pm December 17	tropical low	12.3S	113.3E	70
+12hr	2 am December 18	tropical low	12.4S	112.9E	85
+18hr	8 am December 18	tropical low	12.4S	112.5E	100
+24hr	2 pm December 18	tropical low	12.4S	112.1E	110
+36hr	2 am December 19	tropical low	12.4S	111.3E	135
+48hr	2 pm December 19	tropical low	12.7S	110.5E	155
+60hr	2 am December 20	tropical low	13.1S	109.7E	170
+72hr	2 pm December 20	tropical low	13.5S	108.5E	190

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye


Next Issue
The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 9:00 pm AWST Wednesday

pocketbox

IDW27700
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1237 UTC 17/12/2025
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 03U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 12.8S
Longitude: 113.1E
Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
Movement Towards: south southwest (200 deg)
Speed of Movement: 9 knots (16 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots (55 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots (85 km/h)
Central Pressure: 999 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:   nm (  km)
Radius of Maximum Winds:   nm (  km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS  STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm (280 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  17/1800: 12.9S 112.8E:     030 (060):  030  (055): 1000
+12:  18/0000: 12.9S 112.3E:     040 (080):  030  (055): 1001
+18:  18/0600: 12.9S 111.8E:     050 (090):  030  (055): 1001
+24:  18/1200: 13.0S 111.2E:     055 (100):  030  (055): 1001
+36:  19/0000: 13.0S 110.3E:     070 (130):  030  (055): 1000
+48:  19/1200: 13.2S 109.7E:     090 (165):  030  (055): 1000
+60:  20/0000: 13.6S 109.0E:     095 (180):  030  (055): 1000
+72:  20/1200: 13.9S 107.5E:     105 (195):  035  (065):  998
+96:  21/1200: 14.1S 104.6E:     115 (210):  040  (075):  995
+120: 22/1200: 13.8S 101.9E:     135 (250):  040  (075):  995
REMARKS:
Tropical Low 03U now expected to gradually develop this weekend well northwest
of the WA coast.  

Visible imagery an exposed low level centre to the east of the deep convection
, indicating any development has been arrested.  

Intensity analysed at 30 kn based upon the AMSR2 pass, subjective Dvorak and
objective aids. Dvorak analysis: DT is 1.5 to 2.0 based on shear pattern (LLC
66 n mi from dense overcast. MET 2.0 based on D- trend over 24h. FT = CI = 2.0.
D-MINT and D-PRINT are both <= 30 knots.

03U has been slow moving to the south, but positions from visible imagery
indicate a more west southwest motion has commenced. This motion is expected to
continue based on a mid-level steering ridge to the south that should gradually
strengthen, steering the system to the west well into next week.

Much of the guidance is indicating that 03U will suffer in the short term from
ingestion of dry air with moderate east northeast wind shear. As the system
moves drifts further south, conditions for development should improve as it
moves further under the upper ridge, causing deep layer shear to reduce. At the
same time, a distant upper trough to the southwest may aid in enhancing
poleward outflow, but access to tropical moisture diminishes.  

The forecast is for some intensification recommencing later Friday into the
weekend with a TC more likely on Sunday or early next week.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 17/1930 UTC.

---

IDW24010
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 8:35 pm WST on Wednesday 17 December 2025

A Tropical Low was located at 8:00 pm AWST near 12.8S 113.1E, that is 850 km
east southeast of Christmas Island and 1020 km north of Exmouth and moving
south southwest at 16 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Low 03U is located well to the northwest of the Pilbara coast. It is
forecast to move to the west southwest and remain well away from the coast. The
low is forecast to gradually strengthen with improved chances of being a
tropical cyclone this weekend over open waters of the Indian Ocean.

Tropical Low 03U poses no threat to the WA mainland, and is forecast to pass
south of Christmas Island on the weekend with no direct impact expected at this
stage.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 3:00 am AWST Thursday 18
December.


Headline:
Tropical Low 03U to slowly develop this weekend well away from the WA coast.


Areas affected:
Warning zone: None.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zones: None.


Details of Tropical Low 03U at 8:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 12.8 degrees South, 113.1 degrees East , 850 kilometres east southeast of Christmas Island and 1020 kilometres north of Exmouth .
Movement: south southwest at 16 kilometres per hour .

Tropical Low 03U is located well to the northwest of the Pilbara coast. It is forecast to move to the west southwest and remain well away from the coast. The low is forecast to gradually strengthen with improved chances of being a tropical cyclone this weekend over open waters of the Indian Ocean.


Hazards:
Tropical Low 03U poses no threat to the WA mainland, and is forecast to pass south of Christmas Island on the weekend with no direct impact expected at this stage.


Recommended Action:
Residents of Christmas Island and Cocos Islands should monitor forecast updates during the week.

Details:

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	8 pm December 17	tropical low	12.8S	113.1E	35
+6hr	2 am December 18	tropical low	12.9S	112.8E	60
+12hr	8 am December 18	tropical low	12.9S	112.3E	80
+18hr	2 pm December 18	tropical low	12.9S	111.8E	90
+24hr	8 pm December 18	tropical low	13.0S	111.2E	100
+36hr	8 am December 19	tropical low	13.0S	110.3E	130
+48hr	8 pm December 19	tropical low	13.2S	109.7E	165
+60hr	8 am December 20	tropical low	13.6S	109.0E	180
+72hr	8 pm December 20	tropical low	13.9S	107.5E	195

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye


Next Issue
The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 3:00 am AWST Thursday

Ragasa

IDW27700
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1900 UTC 17/12/2025
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 03U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 12.8S
Longitude: 112.5E
Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
Movement Towards: west (263 deg)
Speed of Movement: 4 knots (7 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots (45 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots (85 km/h)
Central Pressure: 1002 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:   nm (  km)
Radius of Maximum Winds:   nm (  km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm (280 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  18/0000: 12.7S 112.2E:     030 (060):  025  (045): 1003
+12:  18/0600: 12.7S 111.9E:     040 (080):  030  (055): 1000
+18:  18/1200: 12.7S 111.5E:     050 (095):  030  (055): 1000
+24:  18/1800: 12.7S 111.1E:     055 (105):  025  (045): 1003
+36:  19/0600: 13.0S 110.2E:     075 (135):  030  (055): 1001
+48:  19/1800: 13.6S 109.2E:     075 (140):  030  (055): 1001
+60:  20/0600: 14.0S 107.7E:     080 (150):  035  (065):  999
+72:  20/1800: 14.2S 106.2E:     080 (150):  035  (065):  999
+96:  21/1800: 14.1S 103.1E:     100 (180):  040  (075):  996
+120: 22/1800: 13.9S 100.6E:     120 (220):  040  (075):  995
REMARKS:
Tropical Low 03U remains relatively weak but is forecast to slowly develop this
weekend well northwest of the WA coast.

Scatterometry data confirms the low level centre remains east of the deep
convection, and a weak low level circulation with peak intensity at 25 knots.
Dvorak analysis: DT is 1.5 to 2.0 based on shear pattern (LLC 60 n mi from
dense overcast). MET 2.5 based on D- trend over 24h with PAT of 2.0. FT = CI =
2.0. Intensity set to 25 knots based on ASCAT-C pass at 1429 UTC.

03U has been slow moving to the west-southwest. This motion is expected to
continue based on a mid-level steering ridge to the south that should gradually
strengthen, steering the system to the west well into next week.

Much of the guidance is indicating that 03U will suffer in the short term from
ingestion of dry air with moderate east northeast wind shear. As the system
tracks slightly south on Friday, conditions for development should improve as
it moves further under the upper ridge with the deep layer shear expected to
reduce. At the same time, a distant upper trough to the southwest may aid in
enhancing poleward outflow. However, the connection to tropical moisture
remains a concern for development.

The forecast is for some intensification recommencing later Friday into the
weekend with a TC more likely on Sunday or early next week.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 18/0130 UTC.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

---

IDW24010
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 2:48 am WST on Thursday 18 December 2025

A Tropical Low was located at 2:00 am AWST near 12.8S 112.5E, that is 790 km
east southeast of Christmas Island and 1040 km north of Exmouth and moving west
at 7 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Low 03U is located well to the northwest of the Pilbara coast. It is
forecast to move to the west and remain well away from the coast. The low is
forecast to remain relatively weak over the next few days before strengthening
over the weekend over open waters of the Indian Ocean.

Tropical Low 03U poses no threat to the WA mainland, and is forecast to pass
south of Christmas Island on the weekend with no direct impact expected.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 9:00 am AWST Thursday 18
December.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).




Headline:
Tropical Low 03U to slowly develop this weekend well away from the WA coast.

Areas affected:
Warning zone: None.
Watch zone: None.
Cancelled zones: None.

Details of Tropical Low 03U at 2:00 am AWST:
Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 45 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 12.8 degrees South, 112.5 degrees East , 790 kilometres east southeast of Christmas Island and 1040 kilometres north of Exmouth .
Movement: west at 7 kilometres per hour .

Tropical Low 03U is located well to the northwest of the Pilbara coast. It is forecast to move to the west and remain well away from the coast. The low is forecast to remain relatively weak over the next few days before strengthening over the weekend over open waters of the Indian Ocean.

Hazards:
Tropical Low 03U poses no threat to the WA mainland, and is forecast to pass south of Christmas Island on the weekend with no direct impact expected.

Recommended Action:
Residents of Christmas Island and Cocos Islands should monitor forecast updates during the week.

Details:

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	2 am December 18	tropical low	12.8S	112.5E	35
+6hr	8 am December 18	tropical low	12.7S	112.2E	60
+12hr	2 pm December 18	tropical low	12.7S	111.9E	80
+18hr	8 pm December 18	tropical low	12.7S	111.5E	95
+24hr	2 am December 19	tropical low	12.7S	111.1E	105
+36hr	2 pm December 19	tropical low	13.0S	110.2E	135
+48hr	2 am December 20	tropical low	13.6S	109.2E	140
+60hr	2 pm December 20	tropical low	14.0S	107.7E	150
+72hr	2 am December 21	tropical low	14.2S	106.2E	150

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye

Next Issue
The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 9:00 am AWST Thursday

Ragasa

ABIO10 PGTW 171800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/171800Z-
181800ZDEC2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/170751ZDEC2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/170151ZDEC2025//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 17DEC25 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (BAKUNG) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 12.1S 92.8E, APPROXIMATELY 241 NM WEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, AND
HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS GUSTING TO 70
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 170900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
11.9S 113.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.8S 113.0E, APPROXIMATELY 520 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
(IR) DEPICTS, A WELL-DEFINED, PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
CIRCULATION. A 171433Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS REVEALED WINDS OF 25 KNOTS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(15-20 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C), AND PERSISTENT
WESTWARD OUTFLOW. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF 93S AND THAT IT WILL MOVE
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B
(WTXS21 PGTW 170200) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

pocketbox

IDW27700
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0138 UTC 18/12/2025
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 03U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 12.5S
Longitude: 111.8E
Location Accuracy: within 25nm (45 km)
Movement Towards: west northwest (284 deg)
Speed of Movement: 4 knots (7 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots (45 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots (85 km/h)
Central Pressure: 1003 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:   nm (  km)
Radius of Maximum Winds:   nm (  km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 140 nm (260 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  18/0600: 12.5S 111.4E:     035 (070):  025  (045): 1003
+12:  18/1200: 12.5S 111.1E:     045 (085):  025  (045): 1003
+18:  18/1800: 12.5S 110.7E:     055 (100):  025  (045): 1003
+24:  19/0000: 12.5S 110.3E:     060 (115):  030  (055): 1000
+36:  19/1200: 12.7S 109.8E:     075 (135):  030  (055): 1000
+48:  20/0000: 13.1S 109.3E:     080 (150):  035  (065):  997
+60:  20/1200: 13.4S 108.5E:     085 (160):  035  (065):  998
+72:  21/0000: 13.6S 107.3E:     095 (180):  040  (075):  996
+96:  22/0000: 13.4S 105.2E:     105 (195):  050  (095):  989
+120: 23/0000: 13.0S 103.6E:     145 (270):  055  (100):  985
REMARKS:
Tropical Low 03U has held its intensity over the last 6-12 hours. The centre
was located using visible satellite imagery, which is becoming obscured by deep
convective cloud that has increased to the west of 03U. SSMIS microwave at
22:59 UTC confirms the position.

Dvorak analysis: DT is 2.0 based on a curved band pattern with 0.3 wrap. MET is
2.5 based on D- trend over 24h with PAT adjustment to 2.0. FT/CI = 2.0.
Intensity set to 25 knots based on ASCAT-C pass at 1429 UTC and no evident
development.  

03U has been slow moving to the west-northwest. This motion is expected to
continue based on a mid-level steering ridge to the south that should gradually
strengthen, steering the system to the west well into next week.

Much of the guidance is indicating that 03U will suffer in the short term from
ingestion of dry air with moderate east northeast wind shear. As the system
tracks slightly south on Friday, conditions for development should improve as
it moves further under the upper ridge with the deep layer shear expected to
reduce. At the same time, a distant upper trough to the southwest may aid in
enhancing poleward outflow. However, the connection to tropical moisture
remains a hindrance for development.

The forecast is for some intensification recommencing later Friday into the
weekend with a TC more likely on Sunday or early next week.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 18/0730 UTC.

---

IDW24010
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 8:58 am WST on Thursday 18 December 2025

A Tropical Low was located at 8:00 am AWST near 12.5S 111.8E, that is 700 km
east southeast of Christmas Island and 1080 km north northwest of Exmouth and
moving west northwest at 7 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Low 03U is located well to the northwest of the Pilbara coast and is
moving westwards through the Indian Ocean. It is forecast to remain weak over
the next few days before strengthening over the weekend over open waters of the
Indian Ocean.

Tropical Low 03U poses no threat to the WA mainland, and is forecast to pass
south of Christmas Island on the weekend with no direct impact expected.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 3:00 pm AWST Thursday 18
December.


Headline:
Tropical Low 03U to slowly develop in the Indian Ocean.


Areas affected:
Warning zone: None.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zones: None.


Details of Tropical Low 03U at 8:00 am AWST:
Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 45 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 45 kilometres of 12.5 degrees South, 111.8 degrees East , 700 kilometres east southeast of Christmas Island and 1080 kilometres north northwest of Exmouth .
Movement: west northwest at 7 kilometres per hour .

Tropical Low 03U is located well to the northwest of the Pilbara coast and is moving westwards through the Indian Ocean. It is forecast to remain weak over the next few days before strengthening over the weekend over open waters of the Indian Ocean.


Hazards:
Tropical Low 03U poses no threat to the WA mainland, and is forecast to pass south of Christmas Island on the weekend with no direct impact expected.


Recommended Action:
Residents of Christmas Island and Cocos Islands should monitor forecast updates during the week.

Details:

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	8 am December 18	tropical low	12.5S	111.8E	45
+6hr	2 pm December 18	tropical low	12.5S	111.4E	70
+12hr	8 pm December 18	tropical low	12.5S	111.1E	85
+18hr	2 am December 19	tropical low	12.5S	110.7E	100
+24hr	8 am December 19	tropical low	12.5S	110.3E	115
+36hr	8 pm December 19	tropical low	12.7S	109.8E	135
+48hr	8 am December 20	tropical low	13.1S	109.3E	150
+60hr	8 pm December 20	tropical low	13.4S	108.5E	160
+72hr	8 am December 21	1	13.6S	107.3E	180

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye


Next Issue
The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 3:00 pm AWST Thursday

pocketbox

WTXS21 PGTW 180200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93S) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/170151Z DEC 25//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.6S 111.7E TO 12.3S 108.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 180130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.5S 111.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
11.9S 113.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5S 111.5E, APPROXIMATELY 366 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 172301Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SIDE OF A COMPACT LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A
MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG WESTWARD
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KTS),
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29 C). DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF 93S OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE ON A
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. THIS
SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 170200).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
190200Z.//
NNNN

Ck.

前途一片“光明”😭😭😭

pocketbox

IDW27700
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0647 UTC 18/12/2025
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 03U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 12.2S
Longitude: 110.5E
Location Accuracy: within 30nm (55 km)
Movement Towards: west northwest (284 deg)
Speed of Movement: 9 knots (16 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots (65 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots (95 km/h)
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:   nm (  km)
Radius of Maximum Winds:   nm (  km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 130 nm (240 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  18/1200: 12.2S 110.2E:     040 (080):  025  (045): 1003
+12:  18/1800: 12.2S 109.8E:     050 (095):  025  (045): 1003
+18:  19/0000: 12.1S 109.4E:     060 (110):  030  (055): 1000
+24:  19/0600: 12.3S 109.1E:     065 (120):  030  (055): 1000
+36:  19/1800: 12.5S 108.7E:     075 (140):  030  (055): 1000
+48:  20/0600: 12.9S 108.0E:     080 (155):  035  (065):  998
+60:  20/1800: 13.2S 107.0E:     090 (165):  035  (065):  998
+72:  21/0600: 13.3S 105.8E:     095 (175):  040  (075):  995
+96:  22/0600: 13.0S 103.9E:     105 (195):  050  (095):  988
+120: 23/0600: 12.7S 102.3E:     140 (260):  055  (100):  985
REMARKS:
Tropical Low 03U has held its intensity over the last 6-12 hours. The centre
was located using visible satellite imagery, which is becoming obscured by deep
convective cloud that has increased to the northwest of 03U. Scatterometry
winds between 00:54UTC and 01:37UTC showed gales occurring in the northwest
quadrant. Transient sector gales are expected over the next 24 to 48 hours.  


Dvorak analysis: DT is 2.5 (3 hour average) based on a curved band pattern with
0.4 wrap. MET is 3.0 based on D trend over 24h with PAT adjustment to 2.5.
FT/CI = 2.5. Intensity set to 35 knots based on ASCAT-C estimates.
  

03U has been slow moving to the west-northwest. This westwards motion is
expected to continue based on a mid-level steering ridge to the south that
should gradually strengthen, steering the system to the west well into next
week.

Much of the guidance is indicating that 03U will suffer in the short term from
ingestion of dry air with moderate east northeast wind shear. As the system
tracks slightly south on Saturday, conditions for development should improve as
it moves further under the upper ridge with the deep layer shear expected to
reduce. At the same time, a distant upper trough to the southwest may aid in
enhancing poleward outflow. However, the connection to tropical moisture
remains a hindrance for development.

The forecast is for some intensification recommencing over the weekend with a
TC more likely on Sunday or early next week.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 18/1330 UTC.

---

IDW24010
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 2:46 pm WST on Thursday 18 December 2025

A Tropical Low was located at 2:00 pm AWST near 12.2S 110.5E, that is 560 km
east southeast of Christmas Island and 1150 km north northwest of Exmouth and
moving west northwest at 16 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Low 03U is located well to the northwest of the Pilbara coast and is
moving westwards through the Indian Ocean. It is forecast to remain weak over
the next two days before strengthening over the weekend over open waters of the
Indian Ocean.

Tropical Low 03U poses no threat to the WA mainland, and is forecast to pass
south of Christmas Island on the weekend with no direct impact expected.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 9:00 pm AWST Thursday 18
December.


Headline:
Tropical Low 03U to slowly develop in the Indian Ocean.


Areas affected:
Warning zone: None.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zones: None.


Details of Tropical Low 03U at 2:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 12.2 degrees South, 110.5 degrees East , 560 kilometres east southeast of Christmas Island and 1150 kilometres north northwest of Exmouth .
Movement: west northwest at 16 kilometres per hour .

Tropical Low 03U is located well to the northwest of the Pilbara coast and is moving westwards through the Indian Ocean. It is forecast to remain weak over the next two days before strengthening over the weekend over open waters of the Indian Ocean.


Hazards:
Tropical Low 03U poses no threat to the WA mainland, and is forecast to pass south of Christmas Island on the weekend with no direct impact expected.


Recommended Action:
Residents of Christmas Island and Cocos Islands should monitor forecast updates during the week.

Details:

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	2 pm December 18	tropical low	12.2S	110.5E	55
+6hr	8 pm December 18	tropical low	12.2S	110.2E	80
+12hr	2 am December 19	tropical low	12.2S	109.8E	95
+18hr	8 am December 19	tropical low	12.1S	109.4E	110
+24hr	2 pm December 19	tropical low	12.3S	109.1E	120
+36hr	2 am December 20	tropical low	12.5S	108.7E	140
+48hr	2 pm December 20	tropical low	12.9S	108.0E	155
+60hr	2 am December 21	tropical low	13.2S	107.0E	165
+72hr	2 pm December 21	1	13.3S	105.8E	175

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye


Next Issue
The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 9:00 pm AWST Thursday