圣诞岛东南一级热带气旋“伊格吉”(10U/11S.Iggy)

ygsj24

IDW24000
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 2:44 pm WST on Friday 2 January 2026

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Iggy was located at 2:00 pm AWST near 16.1S 109.3E, that is
820 km northwest of Exmouth and 740 km south southeast of Christmas Island and
moving south at 17 kilometres per hour.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Iggy (10U) has weakened over open waters well to the
northwest of the WA mainland and is not expected to re-develop.

Iggy is expected to turn to the west overnight and remain over open waters.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Iggy (10U) has weakened over open waters well to the
northwest of the WA mainland and is not expected to re-develop.

Iggy is expected to turn to the west overnight and remain over open waters.
No impacts are expected to the WA mainland or any island communities.

No further Information Bulletins will be issued. Please refer to Forecast Track
Maps being issued.

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	2 pm January 2	tropical low	16.1S	109.3E	35
+6hr	8 pm January 2	tropical low	16.5S	109.1E	60
+12hr	2 am January 3	tropical low	16.6S	108.6E	80
+18hr	8 am January 3	tropical low	16.6S	107.9E	90
+24hr	2 pm January 3	tropical low	16.7S	107.0E	100
+36hr	2 am January 4	tropical low	16.8S	105.0E	130
+48hr	2 pm January 4	tropical low	17.0S	102.7E	165
+60hr	2 am January 5	tropical low	17.2S	100.0E	210
+72hr	2 pm January 5	tropical low	17.3S	97.3E	260

1. AXAU01 APRF 020700
   
2. IDW27600
   
3. TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
   
4. ISSUED BY AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
   
5. AT: 0700 UTC 02/01/2026
   
6. NAME: EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE IGGY
   
7. IDENTIFIER: 10U
   
8. DATA AT: 0600 UTC
   
9. LATITUDE: 16.1S
   
10. LONGITUDE: 109.3E
    
11. LOCATION ACCURACY: WITHIN 20NM (35 KM)
    
12. MOVEMENT TOWARDS: SOUTH (183 DEG)
    
13. SPEED OF MOVEMENT: 9 KNOTS (17 KM/H)
    
14. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE WIND: 40 KNOTS (75 KM/H)
    
15. MAXIMUM 3-SECOND WIND GUST: 55 KNOTS (100 KM/H)
    
16. CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
    
17. RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT: 40 NM (75 KM)
    
18. RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT: 30 NM (55 KM)
    
19. RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT:
    
20. RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT:
    
21. RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT:
    
22. RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT:
    
23. RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT:
    
24. RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT:
    
25. RADIUS OF 64-KNOT WINDS:   NM (  KM)
    
26. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS:   NM (  KM)
    
27. DVORAK INTENSITY CODE: T2.0/2.5/W0.5/24HRS STT:W0.5/06HRS
    
28. PRESSURE OF OUTERMOST ISOBAR: 1006 HPA
    
29. RADIUS OF OUTERMOST CLOSED ISOBAR: 100 NM (185 KM)
    
30. FORECAST DATA
    
31. DATE/TIME    : LOCATION    : LOC. ACCURACY: MAX WIND   : CENTRAL PRESSURE
    
32. (UTC)        : DEGREES     :      NM  (KM): KNOTS(KM/H): HPA
    
33. +06:  02/1200: 16.5S 109.1E:     030 (060):  035  (065):  998
    
34. +12:  02/1800: 16.6S 108.6E:     040 (080):  035  (065):  998
    
35. +18:  03/0000: 16.6S 107.9E:     050 (090):  035  (065):  998
    
36. +24:  03/0600: 16.7S 107.0E:     055 (100):  030  (055): 1001
    
37. +36:  03/1800: 16.8S 105.0E:     070 (130):  030  (055): 1002
    
38. +48:  04/0600: 17.0S 102.7E:     090 (165):  030  (055): 1002
    
39. +60:  04/1800: 17.2S 100.0E:     115 (210):  030  (055): 1002
    
40. +72:  05/0600: 17.3S  97.3E:     140 (260):  025  (045): 1004
    
41. +96:  06/0600:             :              :            :
    
42. +120: 07/0600:             :              :            :
    
43. REMARKS:
    
44. EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE IGGY (10U) IS WEAKENING WITH INCREASING WIND SHEAR AND DRY
    
45. AIR BEING INGESTED INTO THE CIRCULATION.
    
46. 
    
47. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPOSED CENTRE WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONTRACTING EAST OF
    
48. CENTRE FOLLOWING A TEMPORARY PULSE EARLIER TODAY. OSCAT AT 0408 UTC AND PARTIAL
    
49. ASCAT-C CONFIRMED GALES ON EASTERN SIDE.
    
50. 
    
51. THE EXPOSED CENTRE WAS EASILY IDENTIFIED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY.
    
52. 
    
53. INTENSITY 40KN BASED ON SCATTEROMETRY, A LITTLE HIGHER THAN DVORAK AND
    
54. OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.
    
55. 
    
56. DVORAK ANALYSIS: DT=2.0 BASED ON CURVED BAND PATTERN NOW <0.3 AND
    
57. SHEAR PATTERN ABOUT 0.5 DEGREE. MET IS 1.5 BASED ON A W TREND/24H WITHOUT ADJUSTMENT.  FT=2.0
    
58. AND CI HELD AT 2.5. OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE (1-MIN MEAN) AT 0600 UTC IS ADT 35KN
    
59. (CI=2.5), AIDT 32KN, DPRINT 30KN, SATCON 38KN.
    
60. 
    
61. STRUCTURE    SMALL REGION OF GALES EAST OF CENTRE FROM SCATTEROMETRY
    
62. CONSISTENT WITH SOME MODEL GUIDANCE.
    
63. 
    
64. ENVIRONMENTAL INFLUENCES    INCREASING WIND SHEAR (CIMSS NOW NORTHWEST AT 18KN
    
65. (0000UTC) COMBINING WITH DRY AIR TO REDUCE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR CENTRE. THIS IS
    
66. DESPITE SSTS BEING OF 28C AND STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE TO THE SOUTH ASSOCIATED
    
67. WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE SOUTH.
    
68. 
    
69. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN DEEP CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH MAY SUSTAIN GALES
    
70. MOSTLY SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTRE FOR ABOUT 18H.
    
71. 
    
72. IGGY HAS BEEN MOVING TO THE SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND A RIDGE
    
73. TO THE NORTHEAST. OVERNIGHT THE WEAKER CIRCULATION SHOULD COME UNDER THE
    
74. INFLUENCE OF A LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH IN THE WAKE
    
75. OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL TURN IGGY WESTWARDS UNTIL IT DISSIPATES.
    
76. 
    
77. COPYRIGHT COMMONWEALTH OF AUSTRALIA
    
78. ==
    
79. THE NEXT BULLETIN FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY: 02/1330 UTC.=

复制代码

ygsj24

WTXS31 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (IGGY) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (IGGY) WARNING NR 007   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   020600Z --- NEAR 16.1S 109.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 109.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z --- 16.6S 108.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z --- 16.6S 107.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z --- 16.8S 104.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z --- 17.1S 101.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 109.2E.
02JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (IGGY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 457
NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 020600Z IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z AND 030900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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