ABPW10 PGTW 060200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/060200Z-060600ZJAN2026//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.8S
147.9E, APPROXIMATELY 123 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF WILLIS ISLAND,
AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS A
FULLY EXPOSED AND ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC),
CHARACTERIZED BY MULTIPLE FLARING VERTICAL HOT TOWERS IN THE IMMEDIATE
VICINITY OF THE LLCC. A RECENT OBSERVATION FROM WILLIS ISLAND INDICATES
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 8 KNOTS AND A SLP OF 1006MB. A 052325Z ASCAT-B PASS
REVEALED AN ELONGATED AREA OF TURNING EXTENDING FROM HEAR BOUGANVILLE
REEF TO SOUTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND. THE LLCC IS PLACED IN THE
NORTHWESTERN END OF THIS TROF. WINDS UP TO 20-25 KTS ARE PRESENT ALONG
THE NORTHERN SIDE THE TROF, WITH 15-20 KTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 5-10 KNOTS, MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-30C. GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW MODERATE AGREEMENT REGARDING DEVELOPMENT; HOWEVER, THE GFS
INDICATES MORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION THAN OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS.
DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES IN SPEED, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A
QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1).//
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Tropical Low 12U
Moderate risk of a tropical cyclone from Thursday night off the northeast Queensland coast.
A broad monsoon low (12U) is slowly starting to form to the northeast of Willis Island. It will take some time for this low to become an established circulation.
Tropical Low 12U is likely to be slow moving at first, before moving west or southwest towards the northeast Queensland coast late in the week.
The low should gradually develop, and the risk of a tropical cyclone increases to Moderate (25-40%) from Thursday night.
From Sunday, the risk of a tropical cyclone decreases back to Low as 12U is more likely to have moved over land. During next week 12U may move over Gulf of Carpentaria waters where it has a Low chance of becoming a tropical cyclone.
There is potential for increased risk of rain, flooding, wind and marine hazards for residents in northeast Queensland. Rain and flooding risks could continue after 12U has moved over land. Residents in these areas should monitor forecasts for updates.
If 12U moves towards western Queensland or the southern Gulf of Carpentaria, it is likely that the second tropical low (13U) will have already weakened.
ABPW10 PGTW 070600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/070600Z-080600ZJAN2026//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.8S 147.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 152.0E, APPROXIMATELY 128 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF WILLIS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 070258Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN ELONGATED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO BUILD
OVER THE CENTER. A 062305Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN AREA OF SHARP
TROUGHING WITH 20 KNOT WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30
C). GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 92P STAYING QUASISTATIONARY AS IT CONTINUES
DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS BEFORE TRACKING WESTWARD. THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME HESITANCE ON 92P, WITH GFS
AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWING POOR CONSOLIDATION WITH A BROAD WIND FIELD. IN
CONTRAST, ENSEMBLE MODELS FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
92P. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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发表于 2026-1-6 02:30
