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JTWC:REMAINS MEDIUM
ABPW10 PGTW 221900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/221900Z-230600ZJAN2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221351ZJAN2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 22JAN26 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 25.2S 172.4E, APPROXIMATELY 353 NM NORTHEAST OF KINGSTON IS., AND
HAD TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 28 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO
50 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 221500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
16.2S 151.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.5S 152.4E, APPROXIMATELY 384 NM
EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING AND BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN QUADRANTS. A 221202Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS REVEALS A
MORE SYMMETRICAL STRUCTURE OF 90P RELATIVE TO 12 HOURS AGO, WITH
HIGHER (25-30KT) WINDS PRIMARILY ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-30 KNOTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-
28 C), AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS
CURRENTLY DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF SHORT-TERM DEVELOPMENT. GFS
CHARACTERIZES SLOW AND GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS, BUT QUICK WEAKENING THEREAFTER. GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ILLUSTRATE A
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SCENARIO, WITH BOTH GEFS AND EPS CHARACTERIZING
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS MEDIUM.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.2S
140.4E, APPROXIMATELY 92 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF WEIPA, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A 221203Z METOP-C
MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATING THE FLARING CONVECTION IS
DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. A NEW AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE LLCC IN RECENT HOURS IN EIR IMAGERY. A 221204 METOP-C PARTIAL
ASCAT PASS REVEALS A BROAD WIND FIELD WITH RELATIVELY WEAK (10-15KT)
WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, WITH 20 KT WINDS IN THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN THE AREA ARE MODERATELY
FAVORABLE WITH LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (28-29C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, THIS IS OFFSET BY WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT ON THE TIMELINE AND LOCATION
FOR CONSOLIDATION WITH THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE BOTH
INDICATING CONSOLIDATION IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA OVER THE NEXT 36-
48 HOURS WHILE TURNING SOUTHWARD, WHEREAS THE GFS DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE LEAN TOWARDS DELAYED CONSOLIDATION AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES
EASTWARD AND CROSSES THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA INTO THE CORAL SEA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED MEDIUM AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2).//
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楼主: yhh
发表于 2026-1-22 17:00
发表于 2026-1-22 17:00
