ABPW10 PGTW 250200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/250200Z-250600ZJAN2026//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.9S
166.1W, APPROXIMATELY 262 NM EAST OF PAGO PAGO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS AN AREA DISORGANIZED CONVECTION,
EMBEDDED WITHIN AND ALONG THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE (SPCZ). A
242049Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS THE AREA IN QUESTION HAS YET TO CLOSE OFF
INTO A DISCRETE CIRCULATION, BUT REMAINS MORE OF A WAVE FEATURE,
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS), WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C), AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL
MODELS BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE CONFIDENT IN DEPICTING 94P DEVELOPING
INTO A CLOSED CIRCULATION CENTER AND SEPARATING FROM THE SPCZ AS IT
CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD. ENSEMBLE MODELS (BOTH GEFS AND ECENS)
INDICATE STRONG DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23
TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1).//
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发表于 2026-1-25 01:35
发表于 2026-1-25 01:47
