TCFA - 帕劳以北94W - 9.1N 135.0E - 数值支持发展，西行趋向菲律宾 - JMA:GW

红豆棒冰冰

HKO热带气旋路径概率预报图（2026年2月4日更新）

红豆棒冰冰

GFS 18Z继续预报西行趋向菲律宾，巅峰约986百帕

红豆棒冰冰

JMA 00Z分析DT1.5 MET2 PT2 FT1.5 CI1.5，命名机会仍然不大

meteorologicalAttributeSignificance:        missing
timeIntervalOverWhichMovementOfTropicalCycloneHasBeenCalculated:        4
featureDirectionOfMotion:        270 deg
speedOfMotionOfFeature:        2.06 m/s
accuracyOfGeographicalPositionOfTropicalCyclone:        4
meanDiameterOfOvercastCloudOfTropicalCyclone:        2
apparent24HourChangeInIntensityOfTropicalCyclone:        3
currentIntensityNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        1.5
dataTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        1.5
cloudPatternTypeOfDtNumber:        1
modelExpectedTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        2
trendOfPast24HourChangeDevelopedWeakened:        1.5
patternTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        2
cloudPictureTypeOfPtNumber:        2
finalTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        1.5
finalTNumberType:        1

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 00Z分析升至T2.0，这下应该要升格了吧

TPPN10 PGTW 040010
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94W (N OF PALAU)
B. 03/2330Z
C. 8.70N
D. 133.46E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T2.0/2.0
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 0.45 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET YIELDS 1.5. PT YIELDS 2.0.
DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   RUCKER

红豆棒冰冰

今天凌晨HY-2C及HY-2B风场扫描