Tropical Low 29U
Tropical low 29U has a Moderate chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the Coral Sea later next week.
Tropical low 29U may form in the Coral Sea over the weekend or early next week.
29U has a Low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone from Tuesday onwards, increasing to a Moderate chance during Thursday and Friday as environmental conditions improve.
There is large uncertainty in its movement in the longer term, with a possibility of 29U drifting closer to the coast between Lockhart River and Mackay later in the week, before potentially moving over land next weekend.
People in these areas should monitor forecasts for updates.
Tropical Low 29U
Tropical low 29U has a Moderate chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the Coral Sea later this week.
Tropical low 29U may form in the Coral Sea over the coming days.
29U has a Low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone from Tuesday onwards, increasing to a Moderate chance during Thursday and Friday as environmental conditions improve.
29U is expected to move towards the west later this week, and may move over the Queensland coast between Lockhart River and Mackay. Next weekend, 29U may move west through the Gulf of Carpentaria or over land through northern Queensland or the Northern Territory.
People in these areas should monitor forecasts for updates.
ABPW10 PGTW 020000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/020000Z-020600ZMAR2026//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.9S
152.5E, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND. ANIMATED
ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION
OVER A WEAKLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), CONSISTENT
WITH THE 011811Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE
AREA INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOT), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30
C), AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 91P WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH EXPECTED
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE SOUTH PACIFIC
CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (SS 23P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 28.8S
176.3E, APPROXIMATELY 467 NM SOUTH OF TONGA. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING
BOTH TROPICAL AND MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 011749Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), PARTIALLY
OBSCURED BY UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER, WITH THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURES SHEARED SOUTHWARD. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE, WITH
COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (25-26C), HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(30+KNOTS), AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SUBTROPICAL STORM 23P WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD WITH
A LOW POTENTIAL FOR REGAINING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 42 TO 48 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 984 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1).//
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发表于 2026-2-28 08:14
发表于 2026-2-28 17:50
