95W机构发报专帖

ygsj24

熱帯低気圧 a
2026年03月10日10時30分発表

10日09時の実況
種別        熱帯低気圧
大きさ        -
強さ        -
存在地域        フィリピンの東
中心位置        北緯11度10分 (11.2度)
東経137度40分 (137.7度)
進行方向、速さ        ほとんど停滞
中心気圧        1006 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15 m/s (30 kt)
最大瞬間風速        23 m/s (45 kt)

11日09時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        -
存在地域        フィリピンの東
予報円の中心        北緯11度50分 (11.8度)
東経137度25分 (137.4度)
進行方向、速さ        ほとんど停滞
中心気圧        1002 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18 m/s (35 kt)
最大瞬間風速        25 m/s (50 kt)
予報円の半径        130 km (70 NM)

12日09時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        -
存在地域        フィリピンの東
予報円の中心        北緯12度20分 (12.3度)
東経138度55分 (138.9度)
進行方向、速さ        東北東 ゆっくり
中心気圧        1002 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18 m/s (35 kt)
最大瞬間風速        25 m/s (50 kt)
予報円の半径        200 km (110 NM)

13日09時の予報
種別        熱帯低気圧
強さ        -
存在地域        マリアナ諸島
予報円の中心        北緯14度25分 (14.4度)
東経141度10分 (141.2度)
進行方向、速さ        北東 15 km/h (8 kt)
中心気圧        1004 hPa
予報円の半径        260 km (140 NM)

1. WTPQ30 RJTD 100000
   
2. RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
   
3. REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT 11.2N 137.7E
   
4. 1.GENERAL COMMENTS
   
5.   A TD IS LOCATED AT 11.2N, 137.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
   
6.   POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY.
   
7.   POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS OBSCURE. CENTRAL
   
8.   PRESSURE IS 1006HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER
   
9.   ARE 30KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
   
10.   DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD
    
11.   UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER
    
12.   THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
    
13.   ON EARLY STAGE DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA
    
14.   ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
    
15. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
    
16.   THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
    
17.   ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS HAVE GATHERED AROUND THE CSC.
    
18.   GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE
    
19.   CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
    
20. 3.TRACK FORECAST
    
21.   THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
    
22.   UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
    
23.   PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK
    
24.   FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
    
25.   MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
    
26. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST
    
27.   THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
    
28.   INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
    
29.   WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
    
30.   OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE
    
31.   SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
    
32.   INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL BE UPGRADED TO TS INTENSITY BY
    
33.   FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT72. THE
    
34.   INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
    
35.   INCLUDING GSM.
    
36. =

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ygsj24

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ygsj24

No.5 Tropical Depression KMA | Issued At: Tue, 10 Mar 2026, 11:00

Date(UTC)	Intensity		Maximum Sustained Wind(m/s)		Central Pressure (hPa)	Position		Moving Direction	Moving Speed(km/h)	Radius of 15 m/s(km) [Exceptional radius]	Radius of 25 m/s(km) [Exceptional radius]	Radius of 70% probability(km)
			m/s	km/h		Lat (N)	Lon (E)
Tue, 10 Mar 2026, 00:00 Analysis	-	TD	15	54	1006	11.3	137.8	NW	5			-
Wed, 11 Mar 2026, 00:00 Forecast	-	1	18	65	1002	11.6	137.6	NNW	2	260 [NW 160]		80
Thu, 12 Mar 2026, 00:00 Forecast	-	1	18	65	1002	12.2	139.4	ENE	9	260 [NW 160]		130
Fri, 13 Mar 2026, 00:00 Forecast	-	TD	15	54	1006	14.0	141.5	NE	13			190

ygsj24

WTPN21 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
090 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.0N 136.9E TO 13.3N 139.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 100000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.2N 137.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
10.0N 139.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 137.1E, APPROXIMATELY 119 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
092354Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS DEPICT AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
EMBEDDED IN FLARING CONVECTION WITH SWATHS OF ELEVATED WINDS ALONG THE
EASTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERIES. THE CIRCULATION IS CONSIDERED TOO
ILL-DEFINED TO JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
MODERATE POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW ALOFT, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (15-20 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C).
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE ON SOME DEGREE OF CONSOLIDATION
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS PRIOR TO VERTICAL SHEAR BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT IN 24 TO 48 HOURS. MODELS ALSO AGREE ON A GRADUAL
TRANSIT NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE MARIANAS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
110300Z.//
NNNN

ygsj24

熱帯低気圧 a
2026年03月10日13時25分発表

10日12時の実況
種別        熱帯低気圧
大きさ        -
強さ        -
存在地域        フィリピンの東
中心位置        北緯11度25分 (11.4度)
東経137度50分 (137.8度)
進行方向、速さ        北北東 ゆっくり
中心気圧        1004 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15 m/s (30 kt)
最大瞬間風速        23 m/s (45 kt)

11日12時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        -
存在地域        フィリピンの東
予報円の中心        北緯11度55分 (11.9度)
東経137度35分 (137.6度)
進行方向、速さ        ほとんど停滞
中心気圧        1002 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18 m/s (35 kt)
最大瞬間風速        25 m/s (50 kt)
予報円の半径        130 km (70 NM)

12日09時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        -
存在地域        フィリピンの東
予報円の中心        北緯12度20分 (12.3度)
東経138度55分 (138.9度)
進行方向、速さ        東北東 ゆっくり
中心気圧        1002 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18 m/s (35 kt)
最大瞬間風速        25 m/s (50 kt)
予報円の半径        200 km (110 NM)

13日09時の予報
種別        熱帯低気圧
強さ        -
存在地域        マリアナ諸島
予報円の中心        北緯14度25分 (14.4度)
東経141度10分 (141.2度)
進行方向、速さ        北東 15 km/h (8 kt)
中心気圧        1004 hPa
予報円の半径        260 km (140 NM)

ygsj24

熱帯低気圧 a
2026年03月10日16時20分発表

10日15時の実況
種別        熱帯低気圧
大きさ        -
強さ        -
存在地域        フィリピンの東
中心位置        北緯11度25分 (11.4度)
東経137度50分 (137.8度)
進行方向、速さ        ほとんど停滞
中心気圧        1002 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15 m/s (30 kt)
最大瞬間風速        23 m/s (45 kt)

11日15時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        -
存在地域        フィリピンの東
予報円の中心        北緯11度55分 (11.9度)
東経138度20分 (138.3度)
進行方向、速さ        ほとんど停滞
中心気圧        1000 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18 m/s (35 kt)
最大瞬間風速        25 m/s (50 kt)
予報円の半径        130 km (70 NM)

12日15時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        -
存在地域        フィリピンの東
予報円の中心        北緯12度25分 (12.4度)
東経139度50分 (139.8度)
進行方向、速さ        東北東 ゆっくり
中心気圧        1000 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18 m/s (35 kt)
最大瞬間風速        25 m/s (50 kt)
予報円の半径        200 km (110 NM)

13日15時の予報
種別        熱帯低気圧
強さ        -
存在地域        マリアナ諸島
予報円の中心        北緯15度55分 (15.9度)
東経143度00分 (143.0度)
進行方向、速さ        北東 20 km/h (12 kt)
中心気圧        1002 hPa
予報円の半径        310 km (165 NM)

ygsj24