Tropical Low 34U
Tropical Low 34U tracking west with a Moderate chance of developing into a tropical cyclone.
Tropical Low (34U) has developed south of the Solomon Islands and is forecast to move west over the coming days.
34U has a Low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during Monday, increasing to a Moderate chance from late Tuesday as it moves west through a favourable environment.
From the middle to the end of next week, there is increasing confidence that the system will track towards and cross the northern Queensland coast, then continue into the Gulf of Carpentaria. There is a Moderate chance the system will be a tropical cyclone at the time of landfall.
People in northern Queensland should keep up to date with the latest forecast.
ABPW10 PGTW 151200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/151200Z-160600ZMAR2026//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.3S
159.1E, APPROXIMATELY 233 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF TURNING
OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION, PREDOMINATELY THROUGHOUT THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. A 151014Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS FURTHER EMPHASIZES THE BROAD
SURFACE CIRCULATION WITH WEAK AND VARIABLE WINDS OBSERVED IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC, 10-15 KTS PERSISTS THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHERN
QUADRANT, WHILE AN ISOLATED SWATH OF 20 KTS REMAINS DISLOCATED 150 NM TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE ASSESSED CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS FOR 96P ARE
MOSTLY FAVORABLE, WITH MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPS. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT 96P WILL TRACK WESTWARD TOWARDS THE
QUEENSLAND, AUSTRALIA EASTERN COASTLINE AS IT CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE
OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1)//
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发表于 2026-3-15 04:32
发表于 2026-3-15 04:37
