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WTPS32 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (VAIANU) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (VAIANU) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 14.9S 172.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 172.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 15.8S 173.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 16.7S 173.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 17.9S 174.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 19.6S 175.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 23.4S 178.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 26.0S 179.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 29.1S 179.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 15.1S 172.6E.
05APR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (VAIANU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290
NM NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
051200Z IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 21
FEET. NEXT WARNING AT 061500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (MAILA)
WARNING (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
- WDPS32 PGTW 051500
- MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
- SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (VAIANU) WARNING
- NR 002//
- RMKS/
- 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
- 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
- SUMMARY:
- INITIAL POSITION: 14.9S 172.4E
- INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
- GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 290 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU
- MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KTS
- SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 21 FEET
- SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
- ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
- RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING, COMPACT CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO), WITH A
- NASCENT EYE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN THE MOST RECENT FRAMES IN THE
- ANIMATION. A 051210Z GMI 89GHZ IMAGE REVEALED WELL-DEFINED SPIRAL
- BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING IN A WIDE ARC INTO A QUICKLY SEPARATING
- INNER CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION, WITH A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE.
- DEEP CONVECTIVE HOT TOWERS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL CORE
- REGION OF THE CDO, SURROUNDING THE EYE, AND ACCOMPANIED BY A ROBUST
- INNER-CORE LIGHTNING BURST, A POTENTIAL INDICATOR OF NEAR-TERM
- RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI). THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH
- HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MICROWAVE EYE IN THE GMI IMAGERY. THE
- INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, BASED ON THE
- SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AVAILABLE AT ANALYSIS
- TIME, THOUGH IT IS ALREADY LIKELY TOO LOW BASED ON THE RAPIDLY
- DEVELOPING SITUATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY FAVORABLE
- FOR RI, WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM SSTS, HIGH OHC,
- AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
- INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
- CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
- SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED SOUTH OF SAMOA.
- AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
- PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
- KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
- PHFO: T3.5 - 55 KTS
- NFFN: T3.0 - 45 KTS
- CIMSS ADT: 57 KTS AT 051140Z
- CIMSS AIDT: 43 KTS AT 051140Z
- CIMSS D-PRINT: 60 KTS AT 051300Z
- FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
- VWS: 5-10 KTS
- SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
- OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
- ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
- INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
- INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
- INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
- 3. FORECAST REASONING.
- SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
- THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
- FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 31P (VAIANU) IS FORECAST
- TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE DEEP STR THROUGH
- THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY AFTER TAU 96 WILL THE
- TRACK DEVIATE TO A MORE SOUTHWARD TRAJECTORY, AS IT IS BOTH PULLED
- SOUTHWARD INTO A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND PUSHED SOUTH ALONG THE
- WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A VERY STRONG RIDGE REACHING ALL THE WAY TO
- 45S ALONG THE 160W LONGITUDE. REGARDING INTENSITY, TC 31P IS PRIMED
- TO RI IN THE NEAR-TERM, UNDER VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
- CONDITIONS. THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY HOWEVER, IS FINITE, AND THE
- CONDITIONS WILL ONLY LAST FOR ABOUT 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER, SHEAR
- WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE, TO MORE THAN 30 KNOTS BY TAU 48, MORE THAN
- 50 KNOTS BY TAU 96 AND HIGHER STILL BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
- PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM PASSES UNDER A POLAR FRONT JET STREAK AND
- BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). THE RAPIDLY INCREASING
- SHEAR WILL ALSO USHER IN EXTREMELY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR, HELPING TO
- SQUASH TC 31P. WHILE THE SYSTEM WILL BE DECAPITATED BY TAU 72 AND
- SMOTHERED BY DRY AIR AFTER TAU 96, IT WILL STILL TAKE TIME TO SPIN
- DOWN IN INTENSITY. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, BAROCLINIC
- FORCING WILL FURTHER SLOW THE RATE OF WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM
- BEGINS ETT.
- MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT, WITH
- NAVGEM THE ONLY OUTLIER AMONGST THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS, DEPICTING A
- TRACK FAR OUT TO THE EAST TOWARDS TONGA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
- CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE CONFINED TO A GRADUALLY EXPANDING ENVELOPE THAT
- WIDENS TO 105NM BY TAU 72 AND 280NM BY TAU 120. THE LARGER ISSUE IS
- ALONG-TRACK SPREAD, PARTICULARLY BETWEEN THE AI MODELS (EC-AIFS, GDM
- AND THE AI CONSENSUS) AND THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE. AT TAU 72,
- ALONG-TRACK SPREAD IS ABOUT 80NM, INCREASING TO 250NM BETWEEN THE
- SLOW GFS AND FAST AI MODELS, BY TAU 120. THE JTWC FORECAST IS
- POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MEAN (MINUS NAVGEM) THROUGH TAU 72,
- THEN ALONG THE TRACK LINE OF THE MEAN, BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER, HEDGED
- TOWARDS THE AI CONSENSUS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THROUGH THE ENTIRE
- FORECAST PERIOD. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT. NEARLY
- EVERY RI AID IS TRIGGERED, INDICATING A PEAK INTENSITY BETWEEN 105-
- 130 KNOTS. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE PEAK OCCURRING NEAR TAU 36,
- THEN A MORE OR LESS RAPID WEAKENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
- FORECAST PERIOD. THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED CONSISTENT WITH THE RI
- AIDS THROUGH TAU 36, THEN CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MEAN THEREAFTER,
- WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
- TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
- TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
- INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
- INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
- NNNN
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楼主: 大水台6
发表于 2026-4-5 09:51
