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AWIO20 FMEE 101033
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 10/06/2025 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1: WARNING SUMMARY
Nil.
PART 2 : TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
The basin has a winter pattern over the western part of the basin, complemented by a short branch of a shortening
near-equatorial trough (NET) between 65 and 78E. Convective activity is considered weak in the vincinity of this NET, in
the area where the trade winds slow down. Frontal electrical activity is also noteworthy around a baroclinic low over the
south-western part of the basin.
With a rather neutral MJO phase favoring convective activity in the eastern part of the basin, the environment is
currently unfavorable for cyclogenesis. With the MJO gradually moving towards a dry phase, and with a winter
configuration setting in over the basin, the cyclogenesis context will not evolve and will remain unfavorable to
cyclogenesis.
Development of a tropical storm is not expected over the next 5 days.
The unfavorable environment will not change over the next 10 days. |
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