南半球各类图像自动更新暨非扰动云团专帖（2024年7月－2025年6月）

红豆棒冰冰

AWIO20 FMEE 071058
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 07/06/2025 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1: WARNING SUMMARY
Nil.
PART 2 : TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
The basin features a winter pattern, with low to moderate convective activity at near-equatorial latitudes, east of 59E, as
the trade winds slow down.
With a rather neutral MJO phase tending towards a dry phase, and with winter setting in over the basin, the
cyclogenesis context is and will remain unfavorable.
Development of a tropical storm is not expected over the next 5 days.
The unfavorable environment will not change over the next 10 days.

红豆棒冰冰

AWIO20 FMEE 081043
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 08/06/2025 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1: WARNING SUMMARY
Nil.
PART 2 : TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
The basin has a winter configuration over the western part of the basin, complemented by a near-equatorial trough
(NET) to the east of 70°E. Convective activity is moderate around this NET, in the zone where the trade winds slow
down.
With a rather neutral MJO phase favoring convective activity in the eastern part of the basin, the environment is
currently unfavorable for cyclogenesis. With the MJO gradually moving towards a dry phase, and with a winter
configuration setting in over the basin, the cyclogenesis context will not evolve and will remain unfavorable to
cyclogenesis.
Development of a tropical storm is not expected over the next 5 days.
The unfavorable environment will not change over the next 10 days.

红豆棒冰冰

AWIO20 FMEE 091143
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 09/06/2025 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1: WARNING SUMMARY
Nil.
PART 2 : TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
The basin has a winter pattern over the western part of the basin, complemented by a short branch of the near-
equatorial trough (NET) between 63 and 75E. Convective activity is considered weak along the southern edge of this
NET, in the area where the trade winds slow down.
With a rather neutral MJO phase favoring convective activity in the eastern part of the basin, the environment is
currently unfavorable for cyclogenesis. With the MJO gradually moving towards a dry phase, and with a winter
configuration setting in over the basin, the cyclogenesis context will not evolve and will remain unfavorable to
cyclogenesis.
Development of a tropical storm is not expected over the next 5 days.
The unfavorable environment will not change over the next 10 days.