南半球各类图像自动更新暨非扰动云团专帖（2024年7月－2025年6月）

红豆棒冰冰

AWIO20 FMEE 161022
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 16/06/2025 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1: WARNING SUMMARY
Nil.
PART 2 : TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
The basin is in a winter pattern. Convective activity is rather weak and mainly present in the eastermost parts of our
basin.
Development of a tropical storm is not expected over the next 5 days.

红豆棒冰冰

AWIO20 FMEE 171004
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 17/06/2025 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1: WARNING SUMMARY
Nil.
PART 2 : TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
The basin is in a winter pattern. Convective activity is rather weak and mainly present in the eastermost parts of our
basin.
Development of a tropical storm is not expected over the next 5 days.

红豆棒冰冰

AWIO20 FMEE 180929
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 18/06/2025 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1: WARNING SUMMARY
Nil.
PART 2 : TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
The basin is in a winter pattern. Convective activity is rather weak and essentially present in the eastern part of the
basin.
Development of a tropical storm is not expected over the next 5 days.

红豆棒冰冰

AWIO20 FMEE 191142
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 19/06/2025 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1: WARNING SUMMARY
Nil.
PART 2 : TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
The basin is in a winter pattern. Convective activity is rather weak and mostly present in the trade winds slowing down
area.
Early next week, the basin could temporarily adopt a Near Equatorial Thalweg pattern over the easternmost east of the
basin. This trend will be favored by the arrival of a marked Equatorial Rossby wave and, to a lesser extent, a weak Kelvin
wave within a rapidly circulating weak MJO moist phase.
A low-pressure circulation could develop on Tuesday over the far east of the basin, as suggested by the main forecast
models. Some members of the EPS and GEFS even suggest a cyclogenesis. However, this signal remains marginal for
the time being, due to an unfavorable sheared environment.
For the next 5 days, there is no potential for this suspect area to develop into a moderate tropical storm.

红豆棒冰冰

AWIO20 FMEE 201119
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 20/06/2025 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1: WARNING SUMMARY
Nil.
PART 2 : TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
The basin is in a winter pattern. Convective activity is rather weak and mostly present in the trade winds slowing down
area.
The arrival from the east of a marked Rossby Equatorial wave over the weekend will encourage the formation of a Near
Equatorial Trough over the far east of the basin early next week. The presence of a Kelvin wave early next week, and the
end of a weak wet MJO phase giving westerly wind anomalies over the northeast of the basin, will also contribute to the
vorticity of this NET.
A low-pressure circulation could develop on Tuesday over the far east of the basin, as suggested by the main forecast
models. Some members of the EPS and GEFS even suggest a cyclogenesis. However, this signal remains marginal for
the time being, due to an unfavorable sheared environment.
For the next 5 days, there is no potential for this suspect area to develop into a moderate tropical storm.

红豆棒冰冰

AWIO20 FMEE 211117
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 21/06/2025 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1: WARNING SUMMARY
Nil.
PART 2 : TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
No significant convective activity over the basin.
A wet MJO crossed the basin over the weekend and will reach the maritime continent in 5 days' time, with rather weak
intensity. Next Tuesday, the end of its wet phase coincides with shorter Kelvin and equatorial Rossby waves, leading a
westerly thrust over the eastern Indian Ocean basin.
A low-pressure circulation could develop on Wednesday over the far east of the basin, as suggested by the main
forecast models. Some members of the EPS and GEFS even suggest a cyclogenesis. However, this signal remains very
low for the time being, due to an unfavorable sheared environment and a lack of low-level convergence on the equatorial
side.
The likelihood of the formation of a moderate tropical storm becomes very low from Wednesday 25th to the east of the
basin.
Development of a moderate tropical storm is not expected for the next 5 days.

红豆棒冰冰

AWIO20 FMEE 221103
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 22/06/2025 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1: WARNING SUMMARY
Nil.
PART 2 : TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
Basin in winter configuration, some convective clusters between Diego Garcia and the Seychelles.
A wet MJO finishes crossing the basin and will reach the maritime continent within 5 days with a rather weak intensity
but generating westerly wind anomalies over the extreme south.. Next Tuesday, the end of its wet phase crosses an
equatorial Rossby wave, temporarily favoring vorticity over the east of the basin.
A low-pressure circulation could develop on Wednesday over the far east of the basin, as suggested by the main
forecast models. Few outliers members of the EPS still suggest a cyclogenesis. However, this signal remains very low
for the time being, due to an unfavorable sheared environment and a lack of low-level convergence on the equatorial
side.
For the next 5 days, there is no potential for this suspect area to develop into a moderate tropical storm.
Development of a moderate tropical storm is not expected for the next 5 days.