南半球各类图像自动更新暨非扰动云团专帖（2024年7月－2025年6月）

红豆棒冰冰

AWIO20 FMEE 071058
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 07/06/2025 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1: WARNING SUMMARY
Nil.
PART 2 : TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
The basin features a winter pattern, with low to moderate convective activity at near-equatorial latitudes, east of 59E, as
the trade winds slow down.
With a rather neutral MJO phase tending towards a dry phase, and with winter setting in over the basin, the
cyclogenesis context is and will remain unfavorable.
Development of a tropical storm is not expected over the next 5 days.
The unfavorable environment will not change over the next 10 days.

红豆棒冰冰

AWIO20 FMEE 081043
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 08/06/2025 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1: WARNING SUMMARY
Nil.
PART 2 : TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
The basin has a winter configuration over the western part of the basin, complemented by a near-equatorial trough
(NET) to the east of 70°E. Convective activity is moderate around this NET, in the zone where the trade winds slow
down.
With a rather neutral MJO phase favoring convective activity in the eastern part of the basin, the environment is
currently unfavorable for cyclogenesis. With the MJO gradually moving towards a dry phase, and with a winter
configuration setting in over the basin, the cyclogenesis context will not evolve and will remain unfavorable to
cyclogenesis.
Development of a tropical storm is not expected over the next 5 days.
The unfavorable environment will not change over the next 10 days.

红豆棒冰冰

AWIO20 FMEE 091143
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 09/06/2025 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1: WARNING SUMMARY
Nil.
PART 2 : TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
The basin has a winter pattern over the western part of the basin, complemented by a short branch of the near-
equatorial trough (NET) between 63 and 75E. Convective activity is considered weak along the southern edge of this
NET, in the area where the trade winds slow down.
With a rather neutral MJO phase favoring convective activity in the eastern part of the basin, the environment is
currently unfavorable for cyclogenesis. With the MJO gradually moving towards a dry phase, and with a winter
configuration setting in over the basin, the cyclogenesis context will not evolve and will remain unfavorable to
cyclogenesis.
Development of a tropical storm is not expected over the next 5 days.
The unfavorable environment will not change over the next 10 days.

红豆棒冰冰

AWIO20 FMEE 101033
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 10/06/2025 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1: WARNING SUMMARY
Nil.
PART 2 : TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
The basin has a winter pattern over the western part of the basin, complemented by a short branch of a shortening
near-equatorial trough (NET) between 65 and 78E. Convective activity is considered weak in the vincinity of this NET, in
the area where the trade winds slow down. Frontal electrical activity is also noteworthy around a baroclinic low over the
south-western part of the basin.
With a rather neutral MJO phase favoring convective activity in the eastern part of the basin, the environment is
currently unfavorable for cyclogenesis. With the MJO gradually moving towards a dry phase, and with a winter
configuration setting in over the basin, the cyclogenesis context will not evolve and will remain unfavorable to
cyclogenesis.
Development of a tropical storm is not expected over the next 5 days.
The unfavorable environment will not change over the next 10 days.

红豆棒冰冰

AWIO20 FMEE 111143
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 11/06/2025 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1: WARNING SUMMARY
Nil.
PART 2 : TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
The basin is in a winter pattern over its whole width. Weak convective activity is still present in the area where the trade
winds slow down near the equator, between 65 and 85E.
Adding to this winter pattern set-up, the dry phase of the MJO also contributes to a very unconducive background for
cyclogenesis.
Development of a tropical storm is not expected over the next 5 days.
Beyond the next 5 days, the seasonal winter-type pattern is expected to maintain long-lasting unfavorable conditions for
cyclogenesis. The shy re-emergence of a weak moist MJO phase over the Indian Ocean during the second half of June
should have no particular effect.