所罗门群岛以南34U(94P) - 13.1S 158.8E

qiqi

94P INVEST 250509 1800 12.2S 158.4E SHEM 25 1004

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ECMWF 12Z系集有明显反应

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ECMWF 18Z继续有明显反应，GFS更加看好

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今天早晨ASCAT风场扫描

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ECMWF及GFS 00Z系集

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昨天下午ASCAT风场扫描

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ECMWF及GFS 06Z系集

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ABPW10 PGTW 101800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/101800Z-110600ZMAY2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
7.7S 138.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.2S 137.3E, APPROXIMATELY 245 NM
SOUTH OF GOVE AIRPORT, AUSTRALIA . ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
MODERATE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT.
FURTHERMORE, WARM (2829C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A HUMID CLIMATE
ARE CURRENTLY HELPING 93P WITH POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT. DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93P WILL REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR THE ARAFURA SEA AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23
TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.9S
156.9E, APPROXIMATELY 196 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF HONIARA,SOLOMON
ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A
POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OBSCURED BY
FLARING CONVECTION THAT IS SHEARED FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A PARTIAL
101132Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH ITS STRONGEST
WINDS ISOLATED TO THE SOUTHWEST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA
INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY WARM (30C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA OF CONVECTION
94P WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST AS IT GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS.  ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AGREES ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK WITH
ECENS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE ON DEVELOPMENT THAN THE GEFS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 19.6S
171E, APPROXIMATELY 191 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ASYMMETRIC
CIRCULATION UNDER VERY STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (OVER 50
KTS) DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET MAX TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM. CONVECTION IS BEING VIGOROUSLY SHEARED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. A 101030Z ASCAT-C PASS REVEALED 35-40 KNOT
WINDS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY, DISPLACED ABOUT 100 NM SOUTH
OF THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 95P IS IN AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL TRANSITION DUE TO THE HIGH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ALONG THE
ENTIRE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM, OFFSET BY WARM (27-28 C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON A FAST
EASTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH AN INCREASINGLY ELONGATED
WIND FIELD AND THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAINING WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 33 TO 38
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE:  ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(2) AND
ADDED AREA IN PARA. 2.C.(1) AS A LOW. ////
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ECMWF及GFS 12Z系集

pocketbox

Tropical Low 34U
Tropical low developing east of Papua New Guinea.

• A tropical low (34U) is developing in the western Solomon Sea, east of Papua New Guinea.
• Tropical Low 34U has a Low risk of developing into a tropical cyclone from Monday night.
• Late in the week, conditions become unfavourable for development. The risk decreases to Very Low from late Friday.
• Tropical Low 34U is expected to move east in the short to medium term, keeping it well away from Australia.
  

Last updated
23 minutes ago, 12:32 am UTC

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Tropical Low 34U

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15 (Low)

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15 (Low)

15 (Low)

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10 (Low)

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1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)