TCFA - 墨西哥以南92E - 13.5N 99.4W - NHC:90%

yhh

92E INVEST 250606 1800 11.0N 97.0W EPAC 30 1008

---

1. South of Southern Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms are gradually increasing in association
with a trough of low pressure located near the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development, and a short-lived tropical depression is likely to form
over the weekend while the system moves generally west-northwestward
just off the coast of Mexico.  Interests in southern and
southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

红豆棒冰冰

稍早前ASCAT风场扫描

理可的呆萌呆毛

感覺東太這兩個升格的時候隔壁還在擺爛

ygsj24

WTPN22 PHNC 062200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92E)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/062151ZJUN2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 062200)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.9N 96.7W TO 12.5N 100.7W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 062040Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.0N 97.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92E) IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.0N 97.0W, APPROXIMATELY 387 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO,
MEXICO.A 061627Z ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 25-30KT
WINDS OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
INVEST 91E IS IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO GOOD OUTFLOW
ALOFT, LOW (LESS THAN 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92E
WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP AND TAKE A NORTHWEST TRACK OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 105.7W.//
4. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
072200Z.
//
NNNN

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Jun 6 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. South of Southern Mexico (92E):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure
several hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec are showing
signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
further development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm
is likely to form this weekend as the system moves
west-northwestward. Interests in southern and southwestern Mexico
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

2. Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (91E):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure south of southwestern Mexico are beginning to show some
signs of organization. Gradual development of this system is
expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the
weekend or early next week while the system moves generally
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

3. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop late next week south
of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
some gradual development of this system as it moves
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


Forecaster Berg/Jelsema

pocketbox

1. South of Southern Mexico (EP92):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure
located several hundred miles southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec
continue to show signs of organization.  Environmental conditions
are conducive for further development, and a tropical depression
or tropical storm is expected to form this weekend as the system
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.  Locally heavy rains are
possible along portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during
the next couple of days, and interests there should monitor the
progress of this system.  For additional information on this
system, including gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

红豆棒冰冰

稍早前ASCAT风场扫描

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 071138
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Jun 7 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Southern Mexico (EP92):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized near a
low pressure area located about 150 miles off the coast of
southern Mexico. However, recent satellite data suggest that the
system does not yet have a well-defined circulation. Environmental
conditions are conducive for further development, and a tropical
depression or tropical storm is expected to form during the next day
or two as the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.  
Locally heavy rains are possible along portions of the southwestern
coast of Mexico during the next couple of days, and interests there
should monitor the progress of this system. For additional
information, including gale warnings, please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP91):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located about 600 miles southwest of the southwestern
coast of Mexico have increased a little, but remain disorganized.  
Continued gradual development of this system is expected, and a
tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early
next week while it moves northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop late next week south
of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
some gradual development of this system as it moves
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 12Z分析T1.5

TXPZ24 KNES 071219
TCSENP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92E)
B.  07/1200Z
C.  13.2N
D.  97.8W
E.  THREE/GOES-E
F.  T1.5/1.5
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR
H.  REMARKS...3/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT=1.5. MET=1.0. PT=1.5. THE FT IS
BASED ON THE DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...LEE