小笠原群岛以东2502号热带风暴“圣帕”(02W.Sepat) - 北上趋向日本关东近海

ygsj24

实时云图

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编扰资讯

95W INVEST 250621 0000 20.5N 145.5E WPAC 15 0

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JMA 6月18日06Z认定温带气旋，6月19日00Z认定LPA，今天凌晨予想天气图继续预报+24h、+48h均维持LPA
https://www.tyboard.net/forum.php?mod=redirect&goto=findpost&ptid=1690&pid=141030
https://www.tyboard.net/forum.php?mod=redirect&goto=findpost&ptid=1690&pid=141060
https://www.tyboard.net/forum.php?mod=redirect&goto=findpost&ptid=1690&pid=141577

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GFS 18Z支持成台，预报登陆/擦过本州岛东南部，巅峰约991百帕

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ECMWF 18Z系集，部分成员支持一定程度发展

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JMA 00Z维持LPA，定位向东调整，与JTWC定位趋于一致

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 22N 145E WNW SLOWLY.

Enceladus

GFS 2018Z Main-run(INVEST 95W)
▸ Range: +120Hrs
▸ Step: 24Hrs
▸ Maximun Expected Intensity: 45KT
▸ Plotted by: Enceladus

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今天早晨ASCAT风场扫描

ygsj24

ABPW10 PGTW 210600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/210600Z-220600ZJUN2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 21.8N
145.9E, APPROXIMATELY 498 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. THE AREA OF
CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 21.8N 145.9E, APPROXIMATELY
498 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 210230Z GMI 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FLARING CONVECTION OVER A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). FURTHERMORE, A
210012Z ASCAT-C IMAGE EMPHASIZES A BROAD CIRCULATION WITHIN THE AREA.
ANALYSIS INDICATES 95W IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. A
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL OVER THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY DEGRADING THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.  
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT 95W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
AND DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO A MORE
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

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GFS 00Z继续支持成台，预报将北上转向，掠过本州岛东南部，巅峰约991百帕

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JMA最新予想天气图预报+24h升格TD，+48h维持TD