佛罗里达州近海92L - 29.5N 80.0W - NHC:60%

1007圆规

AL, 92, 2025070400,   , BEST,   0, 295N,  800W,  25, 1013, DB

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1. Near the Southeastern U.S.:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms across the Florida
Peninsula eastward to the adjacent waters of the southwestern
Atlantic Ocean are associated with a weak surface trough of low
pressure.  Environmental conditions are forecast to become more
conducive for development, and a tropical or subtropical
depression could form in this region over the weekend while the
system drifts northward or northeastward.  Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall is possible across portions of
west-central and southwestern Florida through early Saturday, and
across coastal sections of the Carolinas beginning later on
Saturday.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system on Friday, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

ygsj24

448
ABNT20 KNHC 040504
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Near the Southeastern United States (AL92):
Satellite wind data indicate that a weak area of low pressure has
formed about 100 miles east of Jacksonville, Florida, and is
accompanied by disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for further
development, and a tropical or subtropical depression could form
near the southeastern United States late today or over the weekend
if the low remains offshore.  Regardless of development, heavy
rainfall is possible across portions of west-central and
southwestern Florida through early Saturday, and across coastal
sections of the Carolinas beginning later on Saturday.  An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
system later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 041141
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Near the Southeastern United States (AL92):
Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with an area
of low pressure located about 100 miles off the northeast Florida
coast.  Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally
conducive for further development, and a short-lived tropical or
subtropical depression could form late today or on Saturday while
the system drifts northward.  This low is expected to move inland
over the southeastern U.S. Saturday night or early Sunday.  
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible across
portions of west-central and southwestern Florida through early
Saturday, and across coastal sections of the Carolinas beginning
later on Saturday.  In addition, An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Beven

yhh

WTNT21 KNGU 041600
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 30.7N 79.2W TO 33.6N 79.4W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 041200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 30.7N 79.2W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, AND A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATE TODAY OR ON SATURDAY WHILE THE SYSTEM DRIFTS
NORTHWARD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, SUPERSEDED BY POTENTIAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE ADVISORY, UPGRADED TO WARNING, OR CANCELLED BY 051600Z.//

pocketbox

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Near the Southeastern United States (AL92):
Satellite wind data indicate that the system located about 150 miles
off the northeast Florida coast has become better defined today with
an area of strong winds located on its east side. Showers and
thunderstorms are also persisting near and to the east of the
center. A short-lived subtropical or tropical depression could
form later today or on Saturday while the system drifts generally
north-northwestward. This low is expected to move inland over the
southeastern U.S. by early Sunday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is currently en route, and the data they collect
should provide more details on the system's structure. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall is possible across portions of
west-central and southwestern Florida through early Saturday, and
across coastal sections of the Carolinas beginning later on
Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi/Beven

ygsj24

000
WTNT43 KNHC 042035
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032025
500 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025

The wind circulation associated with the low pressure area east of
the coast of north Florida has become stronger, with aircraft and
scatterometer data indicating a well-defined circulation with
maximum winds near 30 kt and a radius of maximum wind of about
80-90 n mi. The system has also developed persistent convection east
and southeast of the center. Based on these developments,
advisories are being started on Tropical Depression Three. The
cyclone is currently being affected by 20-25 kt of southwesterly
shear caused by a mid- to upper-level trough not far to the west.

The initial motion is uncertain due to some reformation of the
center, with the best estimate of 360/2 kt.  During the next 24 h,
the cyclone should move slowly north-northwestward on the northeast
side of a developing mid- to upper-level low over the northeastern
Gulf.  After that time, the system should be steered northward with
a gradual increase in forward speed.  This motion should bring the
center near or over the coast of South Carolina Sunday morning.  A
generally northward motion should then continue until the system
dissipates over land.  While the guidance generally agrees with this
scenario, there is considerable spread in both the forecast
direction and speed, with the HWRF being a notable right outlier.
The forecast track is in best agreement with the GFS and the HCCA
corrected consensus model.

The current shear is expected to diminish on Saturday as the
upper-level trough moves westward away from the cyclone and the
upper-level winds become southerly. However, the upper-level winds
are forecast to become convergent, which may limit the amount of
convection the system produces.  Most of the guidance shows some
development as the system approaches the coast, so the intensity
forecast calls for modest strengthening to a tropical storm before
the cyclone makes landfall. This forecast is a little below the
intensity consensus.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area
beginning Saturday and continuing through Sunday morning.

2. Heavy rainfall across the coastal Carolinas will cause some flash
flooding from Saturday through Monday. Isolated to scattered flash
flooding could occur within more urbanized areas along the coastal
plain of the Carolinas.

3. The system is expected to bring rough surf and rip currents to
much of the Carolina coastline during the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/2100Z 30.8N  79.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  05/0600Z 31.3N  79.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  05/1800Z 31.7N  79.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
36H  06/0600Z 32.4N  80.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
48H  06/1800Z 33.7N  80.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
60H  07/0600Z 35.0N  79.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H  07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven