墨西哥以南96E - 12.7N 102.0W - NHC:40%

933954

96E INVEST 250704 1200 12.7N 102.0W EPAC 20 1009

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1. South of Southern Mexico:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, partly
associated with a tropical wave, is centered a few hundred miles
south of southern Mexico. Gradual development of this system is
expected during the next few days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form later this weekend or early next week while it moves
generally west-northwestward well off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

pocketbox

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Jul 4 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. South of Southwestern Mexico (EP96):
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, partly
associated with a tropical wave, is centered a few hundred miles
south of southern and southwestern Mexico. Gradual development of
this system is expected during the next few days, and a tropical
depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week
while it moves generally west-northwestward well off the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi/Beven

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 042315
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Jul 4 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Central East Pacific (EP96):
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, partly
associated with a tropical wave, is centered a few hundred miles
south of southwestern Mexico. Gradual development of this system is
anticipated during the next few days, and a tropical depression is
expected to form late this weekend or early next week while it moves
generally west-northwestward well off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles offshore of
southwestern Mexico late next week. Some gradual development of this
system is possible thereafter while it moves generally
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Hagen

pocketbox

WTPN21 PHNC 050130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.6N 103.7W TO 14.9N 107.2W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 050000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.7N 103.8W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96E) IS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N
103.8W, APPROXIMATELY 296NM SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 0411954Z 89GHZ AMSR2
IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING, ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)
WITH SPARSE DEEP CONVECTION AND CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION.  ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY FAIR DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW ALOFT,
LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST
96E WILL MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
060130Z.
//
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