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[值得关注] 小笠原群岛西南热带低压06W - 逐渐北上,或将影响日本关东地区 - JMA:GW

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论坛版主-副热带高压

明天见,是最伟大的预言

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31974
发表于 2025-7-10 08:36 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 yhh 于 2025-7-11 16:00 编辑

实时云图




编扰资讯
93W INVEST 250710 0000 20.8N 141.2E WPAC 15 1006
93W INVEST 250710 0000 20.7N 141.8E WPAC 20 1006

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参与人数 1金钱 +5 威望 +5 收起 理由
红豆棒冰冰 + 5 + 5 93W

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生命因何而沉睡,因为总有一天我们会从梦中醒来

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强台风

上海地区气象爱好者

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发表于 2025-7-10 09:07 | 显示全部楼层
此系统好像就是把92W拉到东边的系统
破阵子·五月二十日望洋兴叹
学前聊观数值,全球各洋多旋。去年今日玛娃生,巅峰顶超撼风迷。曾想八六八。
而今极阔西太,惟有云团孱弱。风切遍洋皆死路,黑潮暖水何朝用?静待主风季。

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8831

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强台风

Super Typhoon

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发表于 2025-7-10 10:45 | 显示全部楼层
As of 8:00 AM today, 10 July 2025, the Low Pressure Area (LPA 07c) still being monitored INSIDE  the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and has a LOW potential of developing  into a tropical depression within the next 24 hours.

Another Low Pressure Area (07d) is being monitored OUTSIDE the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and has a MEDIUM potential of developing  into a tropical depression within the next 24 hours.

Meanwhile, the Low Pressure Area (LPA), a remnant of Tropical Depression {DANAS}, still being monitored OUTSIDE the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and has UNLIKELY to develop into a tropical depression within the next 24 hours.

All are advised to monitor updates from DOST-PAGASA.

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热带低压

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发表于 2025-7-10 13:38 | 显示全部楼层
JTWC LOW
ABPW10 PGTW 100600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/100600Z-110600ZJUL2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 20.6N
142.2E, APPROXIMATELY 169 NM SOUTH OF IWO TO. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION THAT IS SHEARED FROM THE EAST. A
092329Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH ITS STRONGEST
WINDS ISOLATED TO THE SOUTH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA
INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (30-31 C) AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA OF CONVECTION
93W WILL CONTINUE NORTH AS IT GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AGREES ON A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK WITH ECENS
BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE ON DEVELOPMENT THAN THE GEFS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

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台风

TwT

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发表于 2025-7-10 16:58 | 显示全部楼层
GFS 1000Z Main-run(INVEST 93W)
▸ Range: +96Hrs
▸ Step: 24Hrs
▸ Maximum Expected Intensity: 40KT
▸ Plotted by: Enceladus

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Astro/Meteo/Quantitive Finance & Econometrics.

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台风

TwT

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发表于 2025-7-10 17:14 | 显示全部楼层
ASCAT B UHR 23Z
扫到25KT

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台风

TwT

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发表于 2025-7-10 17:25 | 显示全部楼层
JMA: +48h LPA

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台风

TwT

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发表于 2025-7-10 17:58 | 显示全部楼层
As of 2:00 PM today, 10 July 2025, the Low Pressure Area (LPA 07c) still being monitored OUTSIDE  the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and has a MEDIUM potential of developing  into a tropical depression within the next 24 hours.
Another Low Pressure Area (07d) is being monitored OUTSIDE the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and has a HIGH potential of developing  into a tropical depression within the next 24 hours.
Meanwhile, the Low Pressure Area (LPA), a remnant of Tropical Depression {DANAS}, still being monitored OUTSIDE the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and has UNLIKELY to develop into a tropical depression within the next 24 hours.

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台风

TwT

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发表于 2025-7-10 18:17 | 显示全部楼层
GFS 1006Z Main-run(INVEST 93W)
▸ Range: +96Hrs
▸ Step: 24Hrs
▸ Maximum Expected Intensity: 35KT
▸ Plotted by: Enceladus

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台风

TwT

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发表于 2025-7-10 21:03 | 显示全部楼层
TPPN12 PGTW 101203
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93W (S OF IWO TO)
B. 10/1130Z
C. 23.10N
D. 141.73E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.0/1.0 STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES WITH COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF
1.5. MET YIELDS A 1.0 PT AGREES WITH MET. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

BRYANT
Astro/Meteo/Quantitive Finance & Econometrics.
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