TCFA - 琉球群岛东南热带低压TD 12(95W) - 21.8N 132.0E - 逐渐北上发展 - JMA:GW

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95W INVEST 250829 0600 10.0N 131.0E WPAC 15 1008

Leonardo

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ABPW10 PGTW 301800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/301800Z-310600ZAUG2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/301351ZAUG2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 30AUG25 1200Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W (NONGFA) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 18.0N 104.4E, APPROXIMATELY 199 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HANOI,
VIETNAM, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 301500) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.4N
133.2E, APPROXIMATELY 204 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE POORLY ORGANIZED CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC).  A 301213Z ASCAT IMAGE REVEALS 15-20 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF 93W. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15
KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 C), AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT
95W HAS A CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS TRACKING NORTH,
WITH GFS BEING THE MORE AGGRESSIVE. ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT AS
WELL FOR A NORTHERN TRACK WITH GEFS BEING THE MORE AGGRESSIVE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1).//
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ABPW10 PGTW 310600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/310600ZAUG2025-010600ZSEP2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/301351ZAUG2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 30AUG25 1200Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W (NONGFA) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 18.0N 104.4E, APPROXIMATELY 199 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HANOI,
VIETNAM, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 301500) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
10.4N 133.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 132.1E, APPROXIMATELY 658 NM EAST
OF MANILA. PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A BROAD AND WEAKLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH SPARSE
CONVECTION THROUGHOUT. A 302357Z ASCAT METOP-B IMAGE FURTHER EMPHASIZES
THE ELONGATED NATURE OF 95W. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA
INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS) AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30
C), OFFSET BY WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND THE BROAD NATURE OF THE
WIND FIELD. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWARD TRACK WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
24-48 HOURS. ECMWF DETERMINISTIC IS CURRENTLY AN OUTLIER AND REMAINS
QUASI-STATIONARY IN THE PHILIPPINES SEA OVER THE SAME TIME FRAME.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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Bunn

JMA +48hr TD

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ABPW10 PGTW 010600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/010600Z-020600ZSEP2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
13.9N 132.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 132.0E, APPROXIMATELY 644 NM EAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A BROAD AND INCOMPLETE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING
CONVECTION WITHIN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
FOR THE AREA INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS) AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (30 C), OFFSET BY WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND THE
BROAD NATURE OF THE WIND FIELD. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWARD TRACK WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13
TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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pocketbox

ABPW10 PGTW 020600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/020600Z-030600ZSEP2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
16.4N 132.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 131.8E, APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF TROUGHING WITH PERSISTENT, FLARING
CONVECTION. A RECENT SHIP OBSERVATION FROM 020300Z SHOWS 12 KNOT WINDS
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND A SLP OF 1008 MB. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF
10-15 KNOTS, DUAL-CHANNEL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-30 C. DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE A CLOSED
CIRCULATION FORMING ADJACENT TO A SWATH OF 25-30 KNOT GRADIENT WINDS
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, WITH SLOW INTENSIFICATION AND A NORTHWARD
TRACK TOWARD WESTERN JAPAN. THE GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES ALSO SUPPORT A
NORTHWARD TRACK TOWARD KYUSHU OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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Bunn

JMA +24 TD

菜园子

FNV3、AIFS、GENC

Bunn

JMA TD