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发表于 2025-11-25 11:58
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ABIO10 PGTW 250400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/250400Z-251800ZNOV2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241951ZNOV2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
4.9N 100.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.5N 99.9E, APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PHUKET, THAILAND.. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION FORMING NEAR THE
ASSESSED CENTER OF 95B. A RECENT 250208Z ASCAT METOP-B PASS REVEALS A
WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE STRAITS OF MALACCA, WITH 25-30 KNOT WINDS SURROUNDING MOST OF THE
CIRCULATION, A SIGNIFICANT AND DRAMATIC STRUCTURAL IMPROVEMENT OVER
THE PAST SIX TO TWELVE HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
MODERATE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 20-25 KNOTS, DUEL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 28-29 C. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
MODELS, WITH GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, TRACKING 95B ACROSS A WIDE-RANGE OF POTENTIAL TRACKS.
ECEPS AND ECMWF TRACK THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD OVER NORTHERN SUMATRA,
HINDERING DEVELOPING, WHILE GFS TRACKS THE SYSTEM NORTHWEST BUT KEEPS
IT OVER WATER, RESULTING IN MORE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION, WHILE
NAVGEM FORECASTS 95B TO TAKE A SOUTHWARD TRACK ALONG THE COAST OF THE
MALAY PENINSULA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23
TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.5N
79.4E, APPROXIMATELY 89 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH FORMATIVE
CONVECTIVE BANDS DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PERIPHERIES. THE LLCC IS POSITIONED AT THE WESTERN END OF A TROUGH
WHICH EXTENDS EASTWARDS TO ANOTHER AREA OF ROTATION EAST OF SRI
LANKA. A 242228Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW
FORMATIVE BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO A NASCENT LLCC, WHILE A
241812Z OSCAT-3 SCATTEROMETER PASS REVEALED AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH
WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS SURROUNDING THE AREA. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 10-15 KNOTS, DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 28-29 C. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
MODELS, WITH NAVGEM BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
PORTRAYING 96B TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD OVER OR
JUST SOUTHEAST OF SRI LANKA, THEN TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 24NOV25 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FINA) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 14.5S 127.7E, APPROXIMATELY 222 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN,
AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 85
KNOTS GUSTING TO 105 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 242100) FOR THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(2). AND
UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.//
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