Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 112244 UTC.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD03F CENTER [1005HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 10.8S
168.2E AT 112100UTC. TD03F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON
HIMAWARI-9 VIS/IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
THE DISTURBANCE LIES UNDER STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE, LOW SHEAR WITH
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE STEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARDS
WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
LOW AND MODERATE AFTER 48HRS.
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NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.
ABPW10 PGTW 120600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/120600Z-130600ZDEC2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.5S
164.0E, APPROXIMATELY 238 NM EAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY BROAD AREA OF TURNING
OBSCURED BY CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTH AND NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL SUPPORTING THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, HIGH (25-30
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THE LACK OF A DISTINCT
LLCC WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT 94P WILL
TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD, WHILE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 120821 UTC.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD03F CENTER [1003HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 11.0S
168.0E AT 120600UTC. TD03F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON
HIMAWARI-9 IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
THE SYSTEM LIES UNDER WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE, LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR
WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARDS
WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
LOW AND MODERATE AFTER 36 HRS.
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--------------
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 121010 UTC.
****** TD03F CENTER RELOCATED BASED ON HY-2C SCATTEROMETER DATA *****
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD03F CENTER [1003HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 10.2S
163.6E AT 120600UTC. TD03F SLOW MOVING. POSITION FAIR BASED ON
HIMAWARI-9 IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
THE SYSTEM LIES UNDER WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE, LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR
WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARDS
WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
LOW AND MODERATE AFTER 36 HRS.
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--------------
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.
发表于 2025-12-12 08:47
