LOW - 迪戈加西亚东南93S - 11.8S 75.9E

大水台6

sh932026 INVEST 20260107 0000 -11.1 72.2 S DB 15 0

pocketbox

ABIO10 PGTW 090030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/090030Z-091800ZJAN2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081951ZJAN2026//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080951ZJAN2026//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT.
RMKS/
1. :
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
...
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. :
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 08JAN26 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (JENNA) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 17.8S 88.6E, APPROXIMATELY 587 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS,
AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 082100) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.0S
71.7E, APPROXIMATELY 220 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED AND BROAD CIRCULATION
EMBEDDED WITHIN A TROUGH SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (10-15KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C), AND GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON
STEADY DEVELOPMENT WITH GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SHOWING THE
SYSTEM REACHING UP TO 35 KTS WITHIN AS EARLY AS 48 HOURS. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE BETWEEN ECMWF AND GFS ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON STEADY
INTENSIFICATION AS 93S TRANSITS SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1).//
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