关岛西南92W - 11.0N 142.9E - 逐渐西行 - JMA:LPA

Ragasa

实时云图

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92W INVEST 260119 1800 4.0N 148.0E WPAC 15 1009

wcy

這個應該就是有預報模式一定反應的遠洋貨吧

红豆棒冰冰

wcy 发表于 2026-1-20 06:42
這個應該就是有預報模式一定反應的遠洋貨吧

没错，就是这个

红豆棒冰冰

JMA 12Z已经认定LPA；GFS 18Z预报将向西北转西偏南方向移动，强度没有明显发展

Enceladus

DeepMind FNV3不支持发展

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF 18Z系集继续有所反应

红豆棒冰冰

JMA 00Z维持LPA

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1004 HPA NEAR 07N 146E WEST SLOWLY.

红豆棒冰冰

今天早晨ASCAT风场扫描

红豆棒冰冰

ABPW10 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/200300Z-200600ZJAN2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191951ZJAN2026//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191221ZJAN2026//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 19JAN26 1800Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (NOKAEN) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 128.1E. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE
ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW
192100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.3N
146.0E, APPROXIMATELY 356 NM WEST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERN
SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20KTS), WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C), AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING 92W,
HOWEVER, ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE MORE AGREEABLE IN THE POSSIBILITY OF
DEVELOPMENT. BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE THAT 92W
WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 17 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
17.1S 158.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.5S 162.5E, APPROXIMATELY 278 NM
SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
(EIR) DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC), WITH DEEP AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER.
A 191048Z METOP-C ASCAT REVEALS 18-23 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE
EASTERN QUADRANT OF 94P. IN ADDITION, A LARGE SWATH OF WINDS UP TO 25
KTS ARE OBSERVED 112 NM AND DISLOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
ASSESSED CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (10-15 KT), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28 C), AND
WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
MODELS SHOW ONGOING SUPPORT FOR 94P TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA OF 35
KTS IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 993 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B
(WTPS21 PGTW 191230) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
     (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.8S
151.3E, APPROXIMATELY 346 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS), WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C), AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY IN THE AGREEANCE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS, WITH GFS AS THE
SOLE OUTLIER INDICATING DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER, GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT 99P WILL TRACK SOUTH-EASTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 27
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREAS IN PARA. 1.B.(1) AND PARA.
2.B.(2) .////
NNNN

红豆棒冰冰

GFS 00Z仍然不支持明显发展