TCFA - 莫桑比克海峡热带低压第9号(97S) - 15.5S 42.4E - 将东行穿过马达加斯加

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97S INVEST 260128 0000 13.8S 45.3E SHEM 15 1009

Ragasa

AWIO20 FMEE 271103
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2026/01/27 A 1200 UTC

PART 1: WARNING SUMMARY



Nil, but system 08-20252026 will be monitored by RSMC La Reunion from 12 UTC.

PART 2 : TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:

The basin has a Monsoon Trough (MT) pattern east of 70E, between 08S and 10S. Convection is strong north of the Mozambique Channel in the monsoon flow slowdown area and around the zone of disturbed weather 08-20252026. Weak to moderate convection is also observed in the monsoon flow slowdown area to the northwest of the TM.

Our basin is currently under the influence of a dry phase of the MJO, which is not conducive to cyclogenesis. However, as an equatorial Rossby wave crosses a Kelvin wave over the western part of the basin in the coming days, the northwesterly monsoon flow should strengthen and make conditions more favorable for cyclogenesis on both sides of Madagascar from the middle of the week.

Zone of Disturbed Weather 08-20252026 :
Information at 09 UTC :
Estimated position: 16.0S / 51.9E
Movement : SSW 4kt
Maximum wind speed (averaged over 10 minutes): 20 kt
Estimated central pressure: 1009 hPa
For further information, please refer to bulletin WTIO30 to be issued at 12 UTC.

In the Mozambique Channel :
A low-pressure system could form in the central part of the Mozambique Channel from Wednesday 28th. Its potential for development is likely to be limited initially due to dry air in the mid-troposphere and weak low-level convergence on the southern side. However, if a low-pressure system does develop, it could benefit from a favorable environment with good upper divergence, low wind shear, and very warm surface waters (above 29oC). A southerly wind surge in the Channel is expected on Thursday and will strengthen on Friday, which will promote vorticity within the system. Most models react within the next five days, with the AROME model and its ensemble being particularly responsive from Thursday 29th onwards. Conversely, the American GFS model and its ensemble struggle to model a low in the Canal and slowly manage to deepen the depression at the end of the week east of Madagascar. The AI models and the European model are intermediate and reach the stage of a moderate tropical storm on Friday or Saturday.
Regardless of whether cyclogenesis occurs, very heavy rainfall is likely throughout the coming week over the Comoros archipelago, northwestern Madagascar, and northern Mozambique in the powerful and persistent monsoon flow established on the margins of this system.

The likelihood for the formation of a tropical storm in the centre of the Mozambique Channel is expected to become low from Wednesday 28th, moderate Thursday and finally, high from Friday 30th.



10-day outlook :
The arrival of a new Rossby wave from the east of the basin early February could improve low-level convergence within the MT and enhance cyclogenesis potential over the central and eastern part of the basin.

NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin within the next five days:

Very low: less than 10%      Moderate: 30% to 60%      Very high: over 90%
Low: 10% to 30%              High: 60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian ocean basin extends from the Equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.

pocketbox

WTIO30 FMEE 281303
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/9/20252026
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 9

2.A POSITION 2026/01/28 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.8 S / 41.9 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1009 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/29 00 UTC: 15.7 S / 41.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE OF DISTURBED
WEATHER

24H: 2026/01/29 12 UTC: 15.6 S / 41.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 110

36H: 2026/01/30 00 UTC: 15.5 S / 42.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 220 SW: 205 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 85 NW: 75

48H: 2026/01/30 12 UTC: 15.6 S / 42.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 230 SW: 220 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 85

60H: 2026/01/31 00 UTC: 16.0 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 45 NW: 45

72H: 2026/01/31 12 UTC: 16.9 S / 45.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/02/01 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 49.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, ZONE OF DISTURBED
WEATHER
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 325 SW: 220 NW: 185

120H: 2026/02/02 12 UTC: 21.0 S / 53.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 370 SW: 220 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SW: 140 NW: 110

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, CONVECTIVE CLOUDS HAVE CONTINUED TO APPEAR IN
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL WITHIN A
WELL-ESTABLISHED MONSOON FLOW. A LARGE AND ILL-DEFINED LOW-PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS VISIBLE ON THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MSG2 SATELLITE IMAGE. AT THIS
STAGE, THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER 09-20252026 DOES NOT MEET THE
DVORAK ANALYSIS CRITERIA. FOR THE PAST 3 HOURS, AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN OBSERVED BETWEEN THE PRESUMED CENTRE
OF THE SYSTEM AND THE COASTS OF MOZAMBIQUE. BASED ON THE PARTIAL
ASCAT-C AT 0553UTC, THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE BEEN ESTIMATED AT 25 KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS CURRENTLY CAUGHT
IN CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS INDUCED BY A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE
FURTHER NORTH AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FURTHER SOUTHEAST. THIS
SITUATION COULD CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY. THE PULLBACK OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA AND THE PIVOTING OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS WILL RESULT IN AN EAST-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION.
THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ON THIS COURSE UNTIL THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING UNCERTAINTY.

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER 09-20252026 IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STATIONARY REGARDING INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO A LACK OF
POLAR CONVERGENCE. A SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST SURGE ALONG THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY EVENING, CONTRIBUTING TO BETTER
VORTICITY. IN FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (WARM WATERS,
MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE, DOUBLE OUTFLOW CHANNELS AND LOW
SHEAR), THE CYCLOGENESIS MECHANISM MAY CONTINUE AND AN
INTENSIFICATION, POSSIBLY RAPID, WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY. THE SPEED OF
INTENSIFICATION ON FRIDAY IS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY
IN THE SHORT TERM, AND OUR RSMC FORECAST IS BASED ON THE RELATIVELY
RESPONSIVE AI ENSEMBLES AND THE AROME MODEL. THE SYSTEM COULD REACH
TROPICAL STORM LEVEL BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ON THE MADAGASCAR
COAST. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT MOVES OVERLAND, AND
ITS POTENTIAL FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION BETWEEN MADAGASCAR AND THE
MASCAREIGNES REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS STAGE. ALMOST ALL
AVAILABLE MODELS PREDICT REINTENSIFICATION AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

IMPACT ON INHABITED AREAS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS
MADAGASCAR (MAHAJANGA PROVINCE):
- LANDING IN THE PROVINCE OF MAHAJANGA ON FRIDAY EVENING OR SATURDAY
DURING THE DAY BETWEEN THE CITY OF MAHAJANGA IN THE NORTH AND
MAINTIRANO IN THE SOUTH (CAP SAINT-ANDRE REGION IN PARTICULAR)
- GUSTS VERY LIKELY AT THE END OF THE DAY OR ON FRIDAY EVENING.
STORM-FORCE WINDS LIKELY NEAR THE LANDING ZONE. HURRICANE-FORCE
WINDS POSSIBLE.
- HEAVY RAIN VERY LIKELY FROM THE END OF THE NIGHT FROM THURSDAY TO
FRIDAY. 150-200 MM IN 24 HOURS, LOCALLY MORE ALONG THE TRACK.
- SEA BECOMING VERY ROUGH TO HIGH FROM THE END OF FRIDAY OR THE
FOLLOWING NIGHT.

THE SYSTEM'S CURRENT INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY THE ISSUANCE OF
REGULAR WARNINGS. NEXT WARNING TOMORROW AT 0600Z.

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 18Z分析T1.0

TPXS10 PGTW 281814
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 97S (EAST OF MOZAMBIQUE)
B. 28/1745Z
C. 15.27S
D. 42.86E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T1.0/1.0/INIT OBS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   28/1535Z  15.20S  42.73E  SSMS
   HUYNH

ygsj24

ABIO10 PGTW 281830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/281830Z-291800ZJAN2026//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.3S
44.1E, APPROXIMATELY 161 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF COMOROS. ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL AND STILL ILL-DEFINED
AREA OF ROTATION IN THE NORTHERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, WITH NASCENT
CONVECTION DEVELOPING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC). EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH WINDS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15KTS), WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29 C), AND STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A
POINT SOURCE ALOFT OVER THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM
WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TOWARDS THE WESTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS IN A WEAK AND COMPETING STEERING PATTERN. FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT STEADY, TO POTENTIALLY RAPID, INTENSIFICATION
DURING THE APPROACH TO MADAGASCAR. ECMWF IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL
FAVORING RAPID INTENSIFICATION, WITH THE GFS LAGGING BEHIND SOMEWHAT.
ENSEMBLE MODELS INDICATE RELATIVELY WEAK INTENSIFICATION ALTHOUGH THEY
AGREE ON A GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1).//
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红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 21Z分析维持T1.0

TPXS10 PGTW 282047
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 97S (EAST OF MOZAMBIQUE)
B. 28/2030Z
C. 15.43S
D. 42.51E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T1.0/1.0  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   28/1535Z  15.20S  42.73E  SSMS
   HUYNH

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 00Z分析维持T1.0

TPXS10 PGTW 290011
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 97S (EAST OF MOZAMBIQUE)
B. 28/2345Z
C. 15.35S
D. 42.65E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T1.0/1.0  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   HUYNH

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 03Z分析维持T1.0

TPXS10 PGTW 290347
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 97S (E OF MOZAMBIQUE)
B. 29/0230Z
C. 15.33S
D. 43.01E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T1.0/1.0  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 0.30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   28/2222Z  15.47S  42.18E  AMS2
   RUCKER

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 06Z分析升至T1.5

TPXS10 PGTW 290552
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 97S (E OF MOZAMBIQUE)
B. 29/0530Z
C. 15.52S
D. 43.07E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T1.5/1.5  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 0.30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   RUCKER

红豆棒冰冰

ABIO10 PGTW 290600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/290600Z-291800ZJAN2026//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
14.3S 44.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 42.9E, APPROXIMATELY 139 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NACALA, MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 290246Z F17 SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
CONVECTIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO
29 C). GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 97S TRACKING EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN
COAST OF MADAGASCAR OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS WITH STEADY
DEVELOPMENT BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.//
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