LOW - 澳大利亚北领地近海98P - 15.2S 137.1E

大水台6

sh982026 INVEST 20260129 0600 -15.2 137.1 P DB 15 0

红豆棒冰冰

ABPW10 PGTW 290600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/290600Z-300600ZJAN2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/290151ZJAN2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 29JAN26 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (EIGHTEEN) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 23.4S 173.7E, APPROXIMATELY 413 NM SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, AND
HAD TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS GUSTING TO 70 KNOTS.
SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 290300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.2S
137.1E, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM NORTHWEST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A MOSTLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER JUST OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN AUSTRALIA, WITHIN
THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. THE SYSTEM HAS FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE
CENTER AND FRAGMENTED BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(29 TO 30 C). GLOBAL MODELS DISAGREE ON BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF 98P WITH ECENS KEEPING IT CLOSER TO THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE
GULF WHILE GEFS SHOWS IT TRACKING MORE TOWARDS THE CAPE YORK
PENINSULA WITH MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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pocketbox

Tropical Low 18U
Tropical low 18U has a Moderate risk of developing in the Gulf of Carpentaria.

• 18U is currently located over water in the western Gulf of Carpentaria.
• The system may drift over land and track west, but if it remains over Gulf of Carpentaria waters there is a chance it could intensify into a tropical cyclone over the weekend or early next week.
• There is potential for increased rainfall affecting Far North Queensland, the Gulf Country and the adjacent Northern Territory associated with 18U. People in these areas should monitor forecasts and warnings for updates.
• Next week, 18U may move westwards across the Top End.
  

Last updated
an hour ago, 08:34 am UTC

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Tropical Low 18U

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

10 (Low)

25 (Moderate)

25 (Moderate)

25 (Moderate)

25 (Moderate)

25 (Moderate)

25 (Moderate)

15 (Low)

10 (Low)

10 (Low)

10 (Low)

10 (Low)

15 (Low)

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 12Z分析T1.0

TPPS10 PGTW 291233
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98P (GULF OF CARPENTARIA)
B. 29/1200Z
C. 16.09S
D. 137.49E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.0/1.0/INIT OBS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BALMER

红豆棒冰冰

红豆棒冰冰 发表于 2026-1-29 21:29
JTWC 12Z分析T1.0

JTWC稍早前重新分析

TPPS10 PGTW 291343 COR
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98P (GULF OF CARPENTARIA)
B. 29/1201Z
C. 15.58S
D. 137.37E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.0/1.0/INIT OBS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT. RE-
EVALUATION OF POSITION.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BALMER

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 15Z分析维持T1.0

TPPS10 PGTW 291508
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98P (GULF OF CARPENTARIA)
B. 29/1430Z
C. 15.57S
D. 137.57E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.0/1.0  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 71A/PBO XTRP/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BALMER

红豆棒冰冰

ABPW10 PGTW 291800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/291800Z-300600ZJAN2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/291351ZJAN2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 29JAN26 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (EIGHTEEN) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 26.2S 172.5E, APPROXIMATELY 428 NM SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW
CALEDONIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40
KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 291500) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.2S 137.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.3S 137.4E, APPROXIMATELY 133 NM
NORTHWEST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
OFF THE COAST IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. THE CIRCULATION IS COVERED BY
LARGE AMOUNTS OF FLARING CONVECTION OVER ITS CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20KTS), VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-
31 C), AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE ECMWF AND
NAVGEM DETERMINISTIC MODELS DO NOT DEVELOP 98P, HOWEVER GFS INDICATES
QUICK FORMATION. ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN MODERATE AGREEMENT THAT 98P WILL
DEVELOP. 98P IS DEPICTED TO TAKE A GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH
THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.//
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红豆棒冰冰

JTWC及SSD 18Z均分析T1.5

TPPS10 PGTW 291744
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98P (NW OF MORNINGTON ISLAND)
B. 29/1730Z
C. 15.44S
D. 137.89E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.5/1.5  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET YIELDS 1.0. PT YIELDS 1.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   HUYNH

TXPS21 KNES 291821
TCSWSP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98P)
B.  29/1730Z
C.  15.2S
D.  137.9E
E.  FIVE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T1.5/1.5
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR
H.  REMARKS...3/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. THE MET IS 1.0. THE PT
IS 1.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...GATLING

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 21Z分析维持T1.5

TPPS10 PGTW 292046
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98P (NW OF MORNINGTON ISLAND)
B. 29/2030Z
C. 15.48S
D. 137.95E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.5/1.5  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET YIELDS 1.0. PT YIELDS 1.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   29/1628Z  15.45S  137.75E  AMS2
   HUYNH