ABPW10 PGTW 242030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/242030Z-250600ZFEB2026//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.6S
170.5E, APPROXIMATELY 279 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 241349Z AMSR2
IMAGE DEPICT FLARING, FRAGMENTED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF A TIGHTENING LOW-LEVEL TROUGH EVIDENT IN A
241003Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS),
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C) AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT.
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT 98P WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE AS IT MOVES
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH GFS AND GEFS
DEPICTING TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AND OTHER MODELS
A BIT LATER. 聽聽 MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO
18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B. (1).//
NNNN
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 242159 UTC.
A TROPICAL LOW WAS ANALYSED NEAR 13.0S 171.0E AT 241800UTC. IT IS
LIKELY TO INTENSIFY INTO A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS.
GLOBAL MODELS [ECMWF AND GFS] ARE MOVING THE SHALLOW LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CLOSE TO VANUATU WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT IS QUITE FAVOURABLE
[STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE] FOR
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AS IT TRACK SOUTHEASTWARDS OVER OPEN WATERS
BETWEEN FIJI AND VANUATU IN THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS VERY LOW.
发表于 2026-2-24 23:28
发表于 2026-2-25 06:47
