LOW - 西澳北部近海30U(93S) - 16.5S 122.0E

Ragasa

93S INVEST 260302 0600 16.5S 122.0E SHEM 15 0

Ragasa

ABIO10 PGTW 020600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/020600Z-021800ZMAR2026//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.5S
122.0E, APPROXIMATELY 88 NM NORTH OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES FLARING CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD, DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOONAL TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THIS AREA REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT,
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C), OFFSET BY HIGH NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25 KTS). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
MODELS PREDICT GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AS IT TRANSITS WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1).//
NNNN

pocketbox

Tropical Low 30U
Moderate chance of 30U developing into a tropical cyclone north of the Pilbara coast from Thursday.

• Tropical low 30U is forecast to move offshore from the Kimberley coast late Tuesday or early Wednesday.
• Environmental conditions are somewhat favourable for development, and the chance of 30U developing into a tropical cyclone increases to Moderate from Thursday.
• 30U is likely to move in a general west to southwest direction, while remaining well to the north of the Pilbara coast.
  

Last updated
an hour ago, 08:50 am UTC

Tropical lows

Today 12:00 pm

Tomorrow 12:00 am

Tomorrow 12:00 pm

Wed 4  Mar 12:00 am

Wed 4  Mar 12:00 pm

Thu 5  Mar 12:00 am

Thu 5  Mar 12:00 pm

Fri 6  Mar 12:00 am

Fri 6  Mar 12:00 pm

Sat 7  Mar 12:00 am

Sat 7  Mar 12:00 pm

Sun 8  Mar 12:00 am

Sun 8  Mar 12:00 pm

Mon 9  Mar 12:00 am

Mon 9  Mar 12:00 pm

Tropical Low 30U

null (None)

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

10 (Low)

15 (Low)

25 (Moderate)

25 (Moderate)

25 (Moderate)

25 (Moderate)

35 (Moderate)

35 (Moderate)

35 (Moderate)

25 (Moderate)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)