LOW - 关岛东南93W - 7.5N 151.7E - 逐渐西行，数值支持发展

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实时云图

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编扰资讯

93W INVEST 260503 1800 8.5N 152.3E WPAC 15 0

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GFS 12Z支持成台，巅峰约989百帕

Enceladus

FNV3对此系统一直有反应，预计四天内增强为热带风暴

pocketbox

ABPW10 PGTW 040200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/040200Z-040600ZMAY2026//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.5N
151.7E, APPROXIMATELY 14 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DISORGANIZED CONVECTION BEGINNING TO
CONGEAL INTO FORMATIVE BANDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 032316Z
PARTIAL ASCAT PASS REVEALS A WEAK, CLOSED LLCC CENTERED IN THE VICINITY
OF CHUUK, WITH MODERATE WESTERLIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK AND
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLIES TO THE NORTH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
PROVIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY, LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-
30 C). BOTH GEFS AND ECENS DEPICT 93W TRACKING WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
24-48 AS IT SLOWLY CONSOLIDATES. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE LAGGING
BEHIND, INDICATING A SLOWER PACE OF CONSOLIDATION AND PRIMARILY
SUPPORTING A LATER WINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE ECMWF IS THE SOLE
DETERMINISTIC MODEL DEPICTING 93W REACHING TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1).//
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JMA今天凌晨予想天气图预报+24h LPA，+48h维持LPA

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ECMWF 12Z系集

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GFS 18Z继续支持成台并稍微调强，巅峰约986百帕

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ECMWF 18Z系集

XIAOQI2233

FNV3在03/18z给的强度普遍在TS

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今天早晨ASCAT风场扫描