小笠原群岛以东2502号热带风暴“圣帕”(02W.Sepat) - 北上趋向日本关东近海

Enceladus

ASCAT B/C UHR 00Z

桑美和伊欧凯

327 发表于 2025-6-23 10:30
感觉JMA对这个系统处理显然是非常谨慎的，如果更激进在深夜就可以命名了，预报路径也没有画到日本本土很早 ...

看来JMA纠结给不给名字也纠结了很久，就连CMA都把预报路径预报到比关东平原更高的纬度

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF 00Z系集

Momo240309

1. TPPN10 PGTW 230849
   
2. 
   
3. A. TROPICAL STORM 02W (SEPAT)
   
4. 
   
5. B. 23/0830Z
   
6. 
   
7. C. 26.20N
   
8. 
   
9. D. 143.74E
   
10. 
    
11. E. THREE/GK2A
    
12. 
    
13. F. T2.0/2.5/S0.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS
    
14. 
    
15. G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
    
16. 
    
17. H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. DENSE OVERCAST SHEARED 46NM
    
18. FROM LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 2.0. MET YIELDS 2.5. PT YIELDS 2.0. DBO
    
19. DT.
    
20. 
    
21. I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
    
22. 23/0345Z 25.60N 144.03E AMS2
    
23. 
    
24. 
    
25. LINDGREN
    
26. 
    
27. 联合台风警报中心于世界协调时23日08时49分发布台风发展报文
    
28. A. 分析对象：TROPICAL STORM 02W (SEPAT)
    
29. ...
    
30. F. 德法结论：FT 2.0, CI 2.5, 24小时趋势 维持(0.0), 3小时短期趋势 减弱(0.5)
    
31. ...
    
32. H. 备注：19A/定位基于暴露的低层环流中心/动画。密集云层区距低层环流中心46海里，得出数据T数为2.0。模型预期T数为2.5。模式T数为2.0。结论基于数据T数。
    
33. ...（来自ZCZCNNNN网）

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JTWC FT降2.0，认为进入减弱阶段

Enceladus

有趣的pattern

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GFS 06Z继续预报逐渐北上靠近本州岛，巅峰约1000百帕

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 12Z分析维持T2.0/2.5

TPPN10 PGTW 231148
A. TROPICAL STORM 02W (SEPAT)
B. 23/1130Z
C. 26.70N
D. 143.12E
E. THREE/GK2A
F. T2.0/2.5/S0.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 17A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES LOCATED NEAR COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 2.0. MET AND PT
AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   23/0748Z  26.13N  143.75E  MMWI
   23/0846Z  26.13N  143.65E  SSMS
   PETERSEN

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JMA 12Z分析DT1.5 MET1.5 PT2 FT2 CI2

meteorologicalAttributeSignificance:        missing
timeIntervalOverWhichMovementOfTropicalCycloneHasBeenCalculated:        4
featureDirectionOfMotion:        347 deg
speedOfMotionOfFeature:        8.23 m/s
accuracyOfGeographicalPositionOfTropicalCyclone:        2
meanDiameterOfOvercastCloudOfTropicalCyclone:        1
apparent24HourChangeInIntensityOfTropicalCyclone:        3
currentIntensityNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        2
dataTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        1.5
cloudPatternTypeOfDtNumber:        2
modelExpectedTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        1.5
trendOfPast24HourChangeDevelopedWeakened:        0.5
patternTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        2
cloudPictureTypeOfPtNumber:        3
finalTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        2
finalTNumberType:        2

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SSD 12Z分析降至T2.0/2.5

TXPQ24 KNES 231203
TCSWNP
A.  02W (SEPAT)
B.  23/1130Z
C.  27.1N
D.  143.1E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T2.0/2.5
G.  IR/EIR/PRXY/SSMIS
H.  REMARKS...CIRCULAR, TIGHTLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES AND A CENTER ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF A SMALL COLD OVERCAST RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.0 USING THE
SHEAR PATTERN. MET IS 2.0 BASED ON A SLOW DEVELOPMENT TREND. PT IS ALSO
2.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE MET DUE TO FLUCTUATING CONVECTION.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    23/0847Z 26.4N 143.3E SSMIS
...TURK

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ECMWF 06Z系集