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发表于 2025-8-24 16:00
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JTWC/19W/#08/08-24 06Z Prognostic Reasoning
本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2025-8-24 16:15 编辑
WDPN31 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 19W (KAJIKI) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 17.4N 110.3E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 90 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 142 NM NORTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 09 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 31 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TYPHOON (TY) 19W HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED 40 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS, FROM 50 KNOTS AT 230600Z TO THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND ANIMATED RADAR
IMAGERY DEPICT A COMPACT CORE SKIRTING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HAINAN
ISLAND, WITH A 23NM EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 240533Z AMSR2 37GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION, WITH A DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. UPPER-
LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST DAY, WITH
RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SUPPORTING THE CURRENT
PHASE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
90 KNOTS, WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE T5.0 TO T5.5 SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATES. CIMSS OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 64 TO 102
KNOTS WHILE A 240533Z AMSR2 WINDSPEED IMAGE INDICATES MAXIMUM WINDS
OF 104 KNOTS. CONSEQUENTLY, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY VALUE, WHICH COULD BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS
RCTP: T5.0 - 90 KTS
KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 86 KTS AT 240552Z
CIMSS ADT: 65 KTS AT 240530Z
CIMSS AIDT: 64 KTS AT 240530Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 100 KTS AT 240552Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 102 KTS AT 240600Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 19W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH LANDFALL EXPECTED NEAR TAU 24. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 105 KNOTS BY TAU 12 THEN
WEAKEN STEADILY AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF VIETNAM. AFTER
LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO THE MOUNTAINOUS REGION
OF NORTHERN LAOS, WITH RAPID WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION BY TAU 48.
MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
WITH A 40NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 24. THE 240000Z GEFS AND
231800Z ECENS ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT, SUPPORTING THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
(INCLUDING COAMPS-TC (GFS) AND HAFS-A) INDICATES A PEAK INTENSITY OF
100-110 KNOTS AT TAU 12, SUPPORTED BY TRIGGERED RAPID INTENSIFICATION
GUIDANCE. AFTER TAU 12, THERE IS STRONG AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM
WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE COAST OF VIETNAM.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
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楼主: ygsj24
发表于 2025-8-24 14:28
