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ABPW10 PGTW 180600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/180600Z-190600ZSEP2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180151ZSEP2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180551ZSEP2025//
REF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180152ZSEP2025//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REFS B AND C ARE TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 18SEP25 0000Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (TWENTYTHREE) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 118.9E, APPROXIMATELY 303 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG
KONG, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 180300) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.3N 134.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 133.4E, APPROXIMATELY 581 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF LEGAZPI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED, EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. A 180113Z METOP-C ASCAT IMAGE REVEALS 20-25
KNOT WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE CIRCULATION FROM THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-30 C) AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90W WILL CONTINUE IN A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH GFS SHOWING THE STRONGEST DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO
23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN22 PGTW
180600) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
23.4N 165.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 164.3E, APPROXIMATELY 282 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC), WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHEAST. A 172240Z ASCAT IMAGE REVEALS 20-25 KNOT WINDS TO THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST OF 91W. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-
15 KTS), WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31C) AND GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE NOT IN
AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF SHOWING SUPPORT FOR A HIGHER INTENSITY OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE NO OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW SUPPORT. GLOBAL
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS 91W ONLY PICKING UP ON ECENS WITH A HIGHER
INTENSITY OVER GEFS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF C (WTPN21 PGTW
180200) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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楼主: DENINE
发表于 2025-9-18 12:44
发表于 2025-9-18 13:55
