牙买加以南五级飓风“梅利莎”(13L.Melissa) - 风眼深邃对流强劲，严重威胁牙买加 - NHC:145KT 908mb

9916-Bart

最新实测932.4

ygsj24

000
WTNT33 KNHC 262357
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 22A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
800 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025

...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS LIKELY TO BEGIN TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 77.3W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and
Holguin.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Cuban province of Las Tunas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be complete.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Cuba, the
southeastern and central Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands,
and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Melissa.  Additional
watches and warnings could be required later tonight or tomorrow.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Melissa was located
near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 77.3 West. Melissa is moving
toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h).   A slow westward motion
is expected tonight, followed by a turn to the north and northeast
on Monday and Tuesday.  On the forecast track, the core of Melissa
is expected to move near or over Jamaica on Tuesday, across
southeastern Cuba Tuesday night, and across the southeastern
Bahamas on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Melissa is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.   Additional intensification is forecast over
the next day or so, followed by fluctuations in intensity.  Melissa
is expected to be a powerful major hurricane when making landfall
in Jamaica.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft observations is 933 mb (27.55 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occuring in Jamaica, with
hurricane conditions expected to begin by Monday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected to begin in Eastern Cuba by Tuesday
afternoon, with Hurricane conditions expected to begin in the
hurricane warning area by Tuesday evening. Tropical storm conditions
are ongoing in the warning area in Haiti.  Hurricane conditions are
possible in the Hurricane Watch area in Haiti.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring rainfall of 15 to 30 inches
to portions of Jamaica and additional rainfall of 8 to 16 inches for
southern Hispaniola through Wednesday, with local storm total maxima
of 40 inches possible.  Catastrophic flash flooding and numerous
landslides are likely.

For eastern Cuba, storm total rainfall of 10 to 15 inches, with
local amounts to 20 inches, is expected by Monday into Wednesday
resulting in life-threatening flash flooding and numerous
landslides.

Over the Southeast Bahamas, total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches is
expected Tuesday into Wednesday resulting in areas of flash
flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Life-threatening storm surge is likely along the south
coast of Jamaica late Monday through Tuesday morning.  Peak storm
surge heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level, near and
to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This
storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

There is a potential for significant storm surge along the southeast
coast of Cuba late Tuesday or Wednesday. Peak storm surge heights
could reach 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels, near and to the
east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of
Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the
next several days, and In the Bahamas and Bermuda later this week.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

9916-Bart

931.7

hei

形態如此綺麗惟強度一直跟不上




或可以留意風眼定於一尊後可否飛躍增強

9916-Bart

934.0，不降反升

恒信金仁

他的问题是龟爬 准7.5能变成勉强C4是真的吓人

ygsj24

000
WTNT43 KNHC 270245
TCDAT3

Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
1100 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Melissa remains a very intense hurricane with a well-defined eye
surrounded by extremely cold cloud tops, significantly colder than
-80 deg C.  The cloud pattern is quite symmetrical on satellite
imagery with strong upper-level outflow, especially over the
northern semicircle.  A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been
investigating the system this evening and found that the central
pressure had fallen to near 933 mb, and peak flight-level winds
support an intensity of 125 kt.  It should be noted that
satellite-based estimates, including subjective Dvorak analyses of
T7.0, suggest a higher intensity than found by the aircraft thus
far.

Although the eye wobbled a bit to the south recently, this is
believed to be temporary and a more representative initial motion
estimate is about 270/4 kt.  The track forecast reasoning is
essentially unchanged from the previous advisory. The mid-level
ridge that had been steering Melissa westward is expected to weaken
by tomorrow.  This should allow the hurricane to turn to the north
and north-northeast during the next day or so.  Then, a developing
mid-level trough near the southeast U.S. coast is expected to
cause Melissa to move northeastward with increasing forward
speed.  The official track forecast is very similar to the
previous one and lies between the HFIP corrected consensus and
Google DeepMind ensemble mean predictions.

Since the hurricane is expected to remain in a relatively low
vertical wind shear environment during the next day or two, it is
expected to strengthen some more until it interacts with the land
masses of Jamaica and eastern Cuba.  The global models show stronger
vertical shear north of Cuba so the system should gradually weaken
later in the period.  The official intensity forecast remains on
the high side of the model guidance.  
  

Key Messages:

1. Jamaica:  Seek shelter now.  Damaging winds and heavy rainfall
tonight and Monday will cause catastrophic and life-threatening
flash flooding and numerous landslides before potentially
devastating winds arrive Monday night and Tuesday morning.
Extensive infrastructural damage, long-duration power and
communication outages, and isolation of communities are expected.
Life-threatening storm surge and damaging waves are expected along
portions of the southern coast Monday night and Tuesday morning.

2. Haiti and the Dominican Republic:  Catastrophic and
life-threatening flash flooding and landslides are expected across
southwestern Haiti and southern portions of the Dominican Republic
through midweek.  In Haiti, extensive infrastructural damage and
isolation of communities are likely. Although winds have temporarily
decreased on the Tiburon peninsula, they are likely to increase
again across much of western Haiti on Tuesday.

3. Eastern Cuba:  Life-threatening storm surge is expected along
portions of the southern coast of eastern Cuba late Tuesday and
Tuesday night.  Damaging winds and heavy rainfall with
life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and
landslides are also expected beginning on Monday.  Preparations
should be rushed to completion.

4. Southeast Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos: Monitor Melissa
closely.  There is an increasing risk of a significant storm surge,
damaging winds, and heavy rainfall Tuesday and Wednesday.  Watches
will likely be required early Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0300Z 16.3N  77.5W  125 KT 145 MPH
12H  27/1200Z 16.5N  78.0W  135 KT 155 MPH
24H  28/0000Z 17.1N  78.2W  140 KT 160 MPH
36H  28/1200Z 18.0N  77.8W  140 KT 160 MPH
48H  29/0000Z 19.4N  76.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
60H  29/1200Z 21.1N  75.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
72H  30/0000Z 23.4N  73.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
96H  31/0000Z 30.1N  67.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  01/0000Z 38.1N  56.7W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

9916-Bart

CDG已经成环
现在我们获得了一个水汽-19，眼温接近20，CDG成环的中级C4

9916-Bart

新一架实测飞机已经在0253z起飞

恒信金仁

这形态搞得NHC都不相信实测了，BST再慢慢改吧。可能强度非常鸭疯